FCX
Freeport-McMoRan Inc. Materials - Copper Mining Investor Relations →
Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) closed at $58.38 as of 2026-07-17, trading 35.7% above its 200-week moving average of $43.01. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 43.2% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 40, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.3x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.89 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1570 weeks of data, FCX has crossed below its 200-week moving average 26 times. On average, these episodes lasted 26 weeks. Historically, investors who bought FCX at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +11.5%.
With a market cap of $83.9 billion, FCX is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 2.0%. Return on equity stands at 15.6%, a solid level. The stock trades at 4.3x book value.
FCX passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 30.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in FCX would have grown to $675, compared to $1856 for the S&P 500. FCX has returned 6.5% annualized vs 10.2% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -12.6% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: FCX vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After FCX Crosses Below the Line?
Across 26 historical episodes, buying FCX when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +16.0% after 12 months (median +2.0%), compared to +15.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 52% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +34.1% vs +35.2% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment FCX crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices FCX would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where FCX's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-22.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $58.45 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $61.89 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $65.76 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $70.14 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $75.16 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from FCX's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
FCX has crossed below its 200-week MA 26 times with an average 1-year return of +11.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1997 | Feb 1997 | 2 | 2.3% | -47.5% | +631.8% |
| Mar 1997 | Apr 1997 | 4 | 6.6% | -27.3% | +641.5% |
| Jun 1997 | Jul 1997 | 7 | 3.9% | -42.6% | +632.3% |
| Aug 1997 | May 2001 | 194 | 60.4% | -56.9% | +639.4% |
| Jun 2001 | Nov 2001 | 23 | 26.6% | +46.9% | +1445.4% |
| Dec 2001 | Dec 2001 | 3 | 4.9% | +21.2% | +1487.8% |
| Sep 2002 | Nov 2002 | 7 | 10.3% | +150.7% | +1463.3% |
| Sep 2008 | Aug 2009 | 47 | 73.6% | +5.9% | +159.7% |
| Jan 2010 | Feb 2010 | 1 | 2.0% | +62.9% | +144.8% |
| May 2010 | Jul 2010 | 11 | 16.7% | +52.3% | +141.1% |
| Aug 2010 | Aug 2010 | 1 | 0.6% | +34.2% | +131.5% |
| Sep 2011 | Oct 2011 | 5 | 19.6% | +29.6% | +141.9% |
| Nov 2011 | Nov 2011 | 2 | 9.3% | +2.8% | +110.5% |
| Dec 2011 | Jan 2012 | 3 | 1.0% | -5.7% | +110.2% |
| May 2012 | Aug 2012 | 13 | 10.4% | -2.9% | +120.5% |
| Dec 2012 | Oct 2013 | 46 | 25.2% | +17.4% | +137.5% |
| Nov 2013 | Dec 2013 | 3 | 3.8% | -19.7% | +99.7% |
| Jan 2014 | Jun 2014 | 22 | 12.2% | -38.8% | +109.5% |
| Sep 2014 | Dec 2017 | 172 | 84.9% | -71.3% | +92.7% |
| Apr 2018 | May 2018 | 2 | 4.0% | -17.2% | +321.9% |
| Aug 2018 | Apr 2019 | 33 | 25.6% | -33.8% | +361.4% |
| Apr 2019 | Jan 2020 | 37 | 29.9% | -31.2% | +409.6% |
| Jan 2020 | Jul 2020 | 24 | 57.0% | +157.5% | +430.6% |
| Dec 2024 | Jan 2025 | 1 | 3.0% | +39.8% | +58.3% |
| Jan 2025 | Jun 2025 | 19 | 24.9% | +62.0% | +57.3% |
| Sep 2025 | Sep 2025 | 1 | 9.1% | N/A | +65.1% |
| Average | 26 | — | +11.5% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FCX below its 200-week moving average?
No. Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) is currently 35.7% above its 200-week moving average of $43.01. It would need to fall to $43.01 to cross below the line.
What is FCX's 200-week moving average price?
Freeport-McMoRan Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $43.01 as of 2026-07-17. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when FCX drops below its 200-week moving average?
FCX has crossed below its 200-week moving average 26 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +11.5%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 26 weeks on average.
Is FCX a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about FCX as of 2026-07-17: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 40. Free cash flow yield is 2.0%. Return on equity is 15.6%. Price-to-book is 4.3x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does FCX compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 30.2 years, $100 invested in FCX would have grown to $675, compared to $1856 for the S&P 500. That's 6.5% annualized vs 10.2% for the index. FCX has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does FCX pay a dividend?
Yes. Freeport-McMoRan Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 102.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-17