FCX
Freeport-McMoRan Inc. Materials - Copper Mining Investor Relations →
Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) closed at $71.07 as of 2026-09-11, trading 59.2% above its 200-week moving average of $44.63. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 63.6% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 58, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.0x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.06 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1578 weeks of data, FCX has crossed below its 200-week moving average 26 times. On average, these episodes lasted 26 weeks. Historically, investors who bought FCX at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +11.5%.
With a market cap of $102.1 billion, FCX is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 2.1%. Return on equity stands at 14.8%. The stock trades at 5.1x book value.
Over the past 30.3 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in FCX would have grown to $822, compared to $1909 for the S&P 500. FCX has returned 7.2% annualized vs 10.2% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -12.6% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: FCX vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After FCX Crosses Below the Line?
Across 26 historical episodes, buying FCX when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +18.5% after 12 months (median +14.0%), compared to +15.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 54% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +34.1% vs +35.2% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment FCX crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices FCX would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where FCX's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-22.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $56.07 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $60.19 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $64.96 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $70.55 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $77.20 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | $0.62 | $0.74 | +18.5% |
| 2026-04-23 | $0.47 | $0.57 | +21.9% |
| 2026-01-22 | $0.32 | $0.47 | +46.7% |
| 2025-10-23 | $0.41 | $0.50 | +22.8% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from FCX's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
FCX has crossed below its 200-week MA 26 times with an average 1-year return of +11.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1997 | Feb 1997 | 2 | 2.3% | -47.5% | +790.9% |
| Mar 1997 | Apr 1997 | 4 | 6.6% | -27.3% | +802.7% |
| Jun 1997 | Jul 1997 | 7 | 3.9% | -42.6% | +791.5% |
| Aug 1997 | May 2001 | 194 | 60.4% | -56.9% | +800.1% |
| Jun 2001 | Nov 2001 | 23 | 26.6% | +46.9% | +1781.3% |
| Dec 2001 | Dec 2001 | 3 | 4.9% | +21.2% | +1832.9% |
| Sep 2002 | Nov 2002 | 7 | 10.3% | +150.7% | +1803.1% |
| Sep 2008 | Aug 2009 | 47 | 73.6% | +5.9% | +216.1% |
| Jan 2010 | Feb 2010 | 1 | 2.0% | +62.9% | +198.0% |
| May 2010 | Jul 2010 | 11 | 16.7% | +52.3% | +193.5% |
| Aug 2010 | Aug 2010 | 1 | 0.6% | +34.2% | +181.8% |
| Sep 2011 | Oct 2011 | 5 | 19.6% | +29.6% | +194.4% |
| Nov 2011 | Nov 2011 | 2 | 9.3% | +2.8% | +156.2% |
| Dec 2011 | Jan 2012 | 3 | 1.0% | -5.7% | +155.9% |
| May 2012 | Aug 2012 | 13 | 10.4% | -2.9% | +168.4% |
| Dec 2012 | Oct 2013 | 46 | 25.2% | +17.4% | +189.1% |
| Nov 2013 | Dec 2013 | 3 | 3.8% | -19.7% | +143.1% |
| Jan 2014 | Jun 2014 | 22 | 12.2% | -38.8% | +155.1% |
| Sep 2014 | Dec 2017 | 172 | 84.9% | -71.3% | +134.5% |
| Apr 2018 | May 2018 | 2 | 4.0% | -17.2% | +413.7% |
| Aug 2018 | Apr 2019 | 33 | 25.6% | -33.8% | +461.7% |
| Apr 2019 | Jan 2020 | 37 | 29.9% | -31.2% | +520.3% |
| Jan 2020 | Jul 2020 | 24 | 57.0% | +157.5% | +545.9% |
| Dec 2024 | Jan 2025 | 1 | 3.0% | +39.8% | +92.7% |
| Jan 2025 | Jun 2025 | 19 | 24.9% | +62.0% | +91.5% |
| Sep 2025 | Sep 2025 | 1 | 9.1% | N/A | +100.9% |
| Average | 26 | — | +11.5% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FCX below its 200-week moving average?
No. Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) is currently 59.2% above its 200-week moving average of $44.63. It would need to fall to $44.63 to cross below the line.
What is FCX's 200-week moving average price?
Freeport-McMoRan Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $44.63 as of 2026-09-11. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when FCX drops below its 200-week moving average?
FCX has crossed below its 200-week moving average 26 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +11.5%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 26 weeks on average.
Is FCX a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about FCX as of 2026-09-11: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 58. Free cash flow yield is 2.1%. Return on equity is 14.8%. Price-to-book is 5.1x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does FCX compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 30.3 years, $100 invested in FCX would have grown to $822, compared to $1909 for the S&P 500. That's 7.2% annualized vs 10.2% for the index. FCX has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does FCX pay a dividend?
Yes. Freeport-McMoRan Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 84.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-11