EXPE
Expedia Group Inc. Consumer Discretionary - Travel Services Investor Relations →
Expedia Group Inc. (EXPE) closed at $280.83 as of 2026-09-11, trading 68.7% above its 200-week moving average of $166.43. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 80.0% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 63, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.4x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.00 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1055 weeks of data, EXPE has crossed below its 200-week moving average 17 times. On average, these episodes lasted 16 weeks. Historically, investors who bought EXPE at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +8.1%.
With a market cap of $33.7 billion, EXPE is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 10.2%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 89.5%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 27.9x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 20.1% over the past three years.
Over the past 20.3 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in EXPE would have grown to $1442, compared to $867 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 14.0% vs 11.2% for the index — confirming EXPE as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 3.8% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: EXPE vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After EXPE Crosses Below the Line?
Across 17 historical episodes, buying EXPE when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +12.5% after 12 months (median +11.0%), compared to +7.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 59% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +39.1% vs +29.4% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment EXPE crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices EXPE would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where EXPE's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-11-05.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $247.49 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $266.73 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $289.20 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $315.82 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $347.83 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | $5.25 | $5.76 | +9.7% |
| 2026-05-07 | $1.38 | $1.96 | +42.3% |
| 2026-02-12 | $3.37 | $3.78 | +12.2% |
| 2025-11-06 | $6.95 | $7.57 | +9.0% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from EXPE's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
EXPE has crossed below its 200-week MA 17 times with an average 1-year return of +8.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2006 | Dec 2006 | 23 | 34.0% | +95.4% | +1341.9% |
| Mar 2008 | Mar 2008 | 4 | 7.3% | -69.3% | +926.8% |
| May 2008 | Jul 2009 | 62 | 69.8% | -30.9% | +897.9% |
| May 2010 | Jul 2010 | 7 | 11.3% | +38.5% | +964.4% |
| Feb 2011 | Mar 2011 | 6 | 6.4% | +8.2% | +902.2% |
| Dec 2011 | Jan 2012 | 4 | 7.0% | +102.0% | +934.0% |
| Feb 2018 | Mar 2018 | 4 | 6.1% | +27.1% | +180.9% |
| Mar 2018 | May 2018 | 7 | 4.6% | +15.8% | +174.5% |
| Nov 2018 | Nov 2018 | 2 | 3.8% | -17.5% | +147.2% |
| Dec 2018 | Jan 2019 | 6 | 6.9% | +1.1% | +162.4% |
| Mar 2019 | Apr 2019 | 1 | 0.7% | -48.9% | +142.3% |
| May 2019 | Jun 2019 | 4 | 4.3% | -40.9% | +142.8% |
| Nov 2019 | Nov 2020 | 53 | 59.4% | +2.7% | +183.1% |
| May 2022 | May 2022 | 1 | 4.8% | -22.4% | +128.5% |
| Jun 2022 | Nov 2023 | 75 | 32.3% | -4.1% | +147.2% |
| Apr 2024 | Aug 2024 | 18 | 15.7% | +17.4% | +120.7% |
| Sep 2024 | Sep 2024 | 1 | 0.9% | +63.6% | +115.3% |
| Average | 16 | — | +8.1% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is EXPE below its 200-week moving average?
No. Expedia Group Inc. (EXPE) is currently 68.7% above its 200-week moving average of $166.43. It would need to fall to $166.43 to cross below the line.
What is EXPE's 200-week moving average price?
Expedia Group Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $166.43 as of 2026-09-11. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when EXPE drops below its 200-week moving average?
EXPE has crossed below its 200-week moving average 17 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +8.1%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 16 weeks on average.
Is EXPE a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about EXPE as of 2026-09-11: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 63. Free cash flow yield is 10.2%. Return on equity is 89.5%. Price-to-book is 27.9x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does EXPE compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 20.3 years, $100 invested in EXPE would have grown to $1442, compared to $867 for the S&P 500. That's 14.0% annualized vs 11.2% for the index. EXPE has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does EXPE pay a dividend?
Yes. Expedia Group Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 69.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-11