EOG
EOG Resources Inc. Energy - Oil & Gas E&P Investor Relations →
EOG Resources Inc. (EOG) closed at $140.26 as of 2026-05-15, trading 23.1% above its 200-week moving average of $113.94. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 14.4% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 66, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 0.8x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.18 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1862 weeks of data, EOG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 27 times. On average, these episodes lasted 16 weeks. Historically, investors who bought EOG at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +17.1%.
With a market cap of $74.7 billion, EOG is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 3.8%. Return on equity stands at 18.2%, a solid level. The stock trades at 2.4x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 8.5% over the past three years. EOG passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 33.4 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in EOG would have grown to $5524, compared to $3058 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 12.8% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming EOG as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -17.3% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: EOG vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After EOG Crosses Below the Line?
Across 26 historical episodes, buying EOG when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +14.2% after 12 months (median +15.0%), compared to +16.1% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 75% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +29.4% vs +36.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment EOG crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices EOG would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where EOG's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $118.94 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $134.47 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $154.67 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $182.01 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $221.08 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Historical Touches
EOG has crossed below its 200-week MA 27 times with an average 1-year return of +17.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1990 | Aug 1991 | 38 | 23.8% | -4.6% | +7838.5% |
| Nov 1991 | Apr 1992 | 20 | 18.6% | +31.4% | +7935.5% |
| Feb 1997 | Aug 1997 | 26 | 22.2% | -0.6% | +3939.7% |
| Oct 1997 | Mar 1998 | 21 | 14.6% | -21.6% | +3851.3% |
| May 1998 | Jul 1999 | 62 | 38.7% | -7.8% | +3957.4% |
| Sep 1999 | Mar 2000 | 27 | 31.8% | +82.5% | +3926.4% |
| Oct 2008 | Oct 2008 | 3 | 20.3% | +51.6% | +581.5% |
| Nov 2008 | Sep 2009 | 43 | 35.2% | +16.7% | +442.6% |
| Aug 2011 | Oct 2011 | 10 | 22.7% | +27.9% | +354.2% |
| Nov 2011 | Nov 2011 | 1 | 1.2% | +31.8% | +336.9% |
| Jun 2012 | Jun 2012 | 1 | 2.8% | +49.8% | +351.6% |
| Aug 2015 | Aug 2015 | 3 | 1.8% | +23.3% | +163.0% |
| Sep 2015 | Sep 2015 | 1 | 4.5% | +24.4% | +166.5% |
| Dec 2015 | Apr 2016 | 19 | 19.4% | +43.4% | +158.5% |
| May 2016 | May 2016 | 2 | 1.5% | +16.3% | +144.9% |
| May 2016 | Jun 2016 | 1 | 0.7% | +13.3% | +141.7% |
| Jul 2016 | Jul 2016 | 1 | 0.2% | +15.5% | +137.4% |
| Jun 2017 | Jul 2017 | 4 | 0.9% | +29.9% | +116.1% |
| Aug 2017 | Sep 2017 | 5 | 5.2% | +39.6% | +115.7% |
| Dec 2018 | Dec 2018 | 2 | 6.6% | -4.2% | +117.1% |
| Feb 2019 | Feb 2019 | 1 | 1.1% | -18.6% | +104.3% |
| Mar 2019 | Mar 2019 | 2 | 7.6% | -35.2% | +118.6% |
| Apr 2019 | May 2021 | 105 | 62.8% | -50.0% | +107.5% |
| Jul 2021 | Sep 2021 | 10 | 16.6% | +42.7% | +142.9% |
| Apr 2025 | Apr 2025 | 1 | 0.1% | +30.1% | +35.1% |
| May 2025 | Jun 2025 | 1 | 0.7% | N/A | +33.8% |
| Sep 2025 | Feb 2026 | 18 | 10.1% | N/A | +30.0% |
| Average | 16 | — | +17.1% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is EOG below its 200-week moving average?
No. EOG Resources Inc. (EOG) is currently 23.1% above its 200-week moving average of $113.94. It would need to fall to $113.94 to cross below the line.
What is EOG's 200-week moving average price?
EOG Resources Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $113.94 as of 2026-05-15. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when EOG drops below its 200-week moving average?
EOG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 27 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +17.1%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 16 weeks on average.
Is EOG a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about EOG as of 2026-05-15: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 66. Free cash flow yield is 3.8%. Return on equity is 18.2%. Price-to-book is 2.4x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does EOG compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.4 years, $100 invested in EOG would have grown to $5524, compared to $3058 for the S&P 500. That's 12.8% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. EOG has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does EOG pay a dividend?
Yes. EOG Resources Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 291.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-05-15