EMR
Emerson Electric Co. Industrials - Electrical Equipment Investor Relations →
Emerson Electric Co. (EMR) closed at $133.05 as of 2026-05-15, trading 25.5% above its 200-week moving average of $106.01. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 33.1% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 35, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.1x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.92 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2767 weeks of data, EMR has crossed below its 200-week moving average 37 times. On average, these episodes lasted 12 weeks. Historically, investors who bought EMR at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +13.3%.
With a market cap of $74.5 billion, EMR is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 4.4%. Return on equity stands at 12.3%. The stock trades at 3.7x book value.
EMR is a Dividend Aristocrat, having increased its dividend for 25 or more consecutive years. The current yield is 167.00%. Management has been repurchasing shares, with a 4.8% reduction over three years.
Over the past 33.4 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in EMR would have grown to $2345, compared to $3058 for the S&P 500. EMR has returned 9.9% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: EMR vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After EMR Crosses Below the Line?
Across 17 historical episodes, buying EMR when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +22.5% after 12 months (median +19.0%), compared to +11.2% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 82% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +43.0% vs +26.6% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment EMR crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices EMR would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where EMR's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $124.57 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $130.54 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $137.10 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $144.36 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $152.44 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Historical Touches
EMR has crossed below its 200-week MA 37 times with an average 1-year return of +13.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1973 | Jul 1973 | 10 | 8.9% | -2.5% | +16999.0% |
| Nov 1973 | Nov 1973 | 1 | 0.0% | -39.0% | +16177.2% |
| Dec 1973 | May 1975 | 75 | 47.3% | -35.5% | +18472.7% |
| Jun 1975 | Jun 1975 | 1 | 2.6% | +2.8% | +18731.7% |
| Jul 1975 | Nov 1975 | 17 | 13.0% | +3.5% | +18544.0% |
| Dec 1975 | Jan 1976 | 6 | 9.5% | +4.2% | +19806.8% |
| Mar 1976 | Apr 1976 | 5 | 1.3% | -3.6% | +18439.1% |
| May 1976 | Jun 1976 | 1 | 0.1% | -5.9% | +18467.7% |
| Aug 1976 | Sep 1976 | 3 | 3.7% | -2.6% | +19252.3% |
| Oct 1976 | Jun 1977 | 34 | 10.1% | -1.0% | +19424.4% |
| Jul 1977 | Jul 1977 | 1 | 1.1% | +11.1% | +19626.8% |
| Aug 1977 | Aug 1977 | 3 | 1.9% | +18.5% | +19773.5% |
| Oct 1977 | Nov 1977 | 1 | 0.2% | +7.8% | +19847.1% |
| Jan 1978 | Apr 1978 | 11 | 8.0% | +18.4% | +20053.1% |
| Feb 1979 | Feb 1979 | 1 | 0.0% | +7.3% | +18845.8% |
| Apr 1979 | Apr 1979 | 1 | 0.4% | +0.2% | +18917.5% |
| Jul 1979 | Jul 1979 | 1 | 0.4% | +23.4% | +18856.0% |
| Oct 1979 | Dec 1979 | 7 | 1.7% | +14.4% | +18963.9% |
| Mar 1980 | Apr 1980 | 8 | 5.3% | +38.0% | +19036.1% |
| Sep 1990 | Oct 1990 | 1 | 0.0% | +55.9% | +4164.0% |
| Jan 2000 | Apr 2000 | 9 | 23.7% | +43.8% | +950.9% |
| Apr 2000 | Apr 2000 | 1 | 3.1% | +27.1% | +926.9% |
| Jul 2001 | Feb 2002 | 33 | 21.8% | -6.9% | +831.1% |
| Mar 2002 | May 2002 | 7 | 6.2% | -16.8% | +795.3% |
| Jun 2002 | Aug 2003 | 63 | 22.1% | -1.3% | +796.5% |
| Sep 2003 | Oct 2003 | 2 | 1.1% | +20.1% | +825.1% |
| Sep 2008 | Nov 2009 | 57 | 38.1% | +4.3% | +469.7% |
| Aug 2011 | Aug 2011 | 1 | 3.2% | +26.1% | +366.7% |
| Sep 2011 | Oct 2011 | 4 | 5.6% | +18.4% | +356.6% |
| Jul 2015 | Mar 2016 | 36 | 20.3% | +3.2% | +229.8% |
| Apr 2016 | Apr 2016 | 1 | 0.1% | +14.2% | +220.0% |
| May 2016 | Jul 2016 | 10 | 5.8% | +14.5% | +223.2% |
| Aug 2016 | Nov 2016 | 14 | 9.0% | +17.6% | +217.5% |
| Aug 2019 | Aug 2019 | 2 | 1.6% | +24.3% | +168.8% |
| Mar 2020 | May 2020 | 11 | 27.7% | +88.7% | +202.6% |
| Jun 2020 | Jul 2020 | 3 | 2.1% | +64.4% | +152.0% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 2 | 1.7% | +34.6% | +93.8% |
| Average | 12 | — | +13.3% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is EMR below its 200-week moving average?
No. Emerson Electric Co. (EMR) is currently 25.5% above its 200-week moving average of $106.01. It would need to fall to $106.01 to cross below the line.
What is EMR's 200-week moving average price?
Emerson Electric Co.'s 200-week moving average is $106.01 as of 2026-05-15. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when EMR drops below its 200-week moving average?
EMR has crossed below its 200-week moving average 37 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +13.3%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 12 weeks on average.
Is EMR a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about EMR as of 2026-05-15: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 35. Free cash flow yield is 4.4%. Return on equity is 12.3%. Price-to-book is 3.7x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does EMR compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.4 years, $100 invested in EMR would have grown to $2345, compared to $3058 for the S&P 500. That's 9.9% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. EMR has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does EMR pay a dividend?
Yes. Emerson Electric Co. currently pays a dividend yield of 167.00%. It is also a Dividend Aristocrat, meaning it has raised its dividend for 25 or more consecutive years.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-05-15