EL
The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. Consumer Staples - Personal Care Investor Relations →
The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (EL) closed at $80.28 as of 2026-05-15, trading 39.2% below its 200-week moving average of $131.99. This places EL in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -35.1% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 39, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 0.8x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.82 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1543 weeks of data, EL has crossed below its 200-week moving average 18 times. On average, these episodes lasted 22 weeks. Historically, investors who bought EL at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +8.4%.
With a market cap of $29.0 billion, EL is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 6.2%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at -5.9%. The stock trades at 7.3x book value.
Over the past 29.7 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in EL would have grown to $1012, compared to $1735 for the S&P 500. EL has returned 8.1% annualized vs 10.1% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -30.5% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: EL vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After EL Crosses Below the Line?
Across 18 historical episodes, buying EL when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +1.8% after 12 months (median +12.0%), compared to +3.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 56% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +7.9% vs +10.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment EL crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices EL would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where EL's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $36.94 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $41.39 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $47.05 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $54.50 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $64.77 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Historical Touches
EL has crossed below its 200-week MA 18 times with an average 1-year return of +8.4% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1997 | Oct 1997 | 1 | 1.1% | +43.8% | +937.2% |
| Oct 2000 | Oct 2000 | 1 | 2.1% | -5.0% | +516.3% |
| Mar 2001 | Apr 2001 | 6 | 9.3% | -10.2% | +488.4% |
| Jul 2001 | Aug 2001 | 3 | 2.4% | -26.5% | +449.6% |
| Aug 2001 | Oct 2003 | 110 | 34.5% | -22.5% | +455.2% |
| Oct 2003 | Oct 2003 | 1 | 0.8% | +18.9% | +487.2% |
| Sep 2005 | Jan 2006 | 19 | 11.8% | +12.8% | +491.7% |
| Apr 2006 | Apr 2006 | 2 | 1.7% | +40.2% | +475.2% |
| Jul 2006 | Jul 2006 | 2 | 2.4% | +29.7% | +463.1% |
| Aug 2006 | Sep 2006 | 5 | 6.7% | +19.3% | +463.0% |
| Aug 2007 | Aug 2007 | 1 | 0.5% | +30.6% | +407.4% |
| Sep 2007 | Sep 2007 | 1 | 1.3% | +34.9% | +410.2% |
| Jan 2008 | Jan 2008 | 3 | 4.3% | -19.5% | +421.1% |
| Oct 2008 | Oct 2009 | 52 | 47.0% | +1.9% | +408.1% |
| Nov 2016 | Jan 2017 | 5 | 1.7% | +67.0% | +19.5% |
| Sep 2022 | Nov 2022 | 10 | 14.0% | -34.7% | -62.7% |
| Feb 2023 | Apr 2023 | 7 | 3.6% | -37.2% | -64.9% |
| May 2023 | Ongoing | 159+ | 72.4% | Ongoing | -58.3% |
| Average | 22 | — | +8.4% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is EL below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-05-15, The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (EL) is trading 39.2% below its 200-week moving average of $131.99. The current price is $80.28.
What is EL's 200-week moving average price?
The Estée Lauder Companies Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $131.99 as of 2026-05-15. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when EL drops below its 200-week moving average?
EL has crossed below its 200-week moving average 18 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +8.4%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 22 weeks on average.
Is EL a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about EL as of 2026-05-15: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 39. Free cash flow yield is 6.2%. Return on equity is -5.9%. Price-to-book is 7.3x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does EL compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 29.7 years, $100 invested in EL would have grown to $1012, compared to $1735 for the S&P 500. That's 8.1% annualized vs 10.1% for the index. EL has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does EL pay a dividend?
Yes. The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 174.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-05-15