DLTR
Dollar Tree Inc. Consumer Discretionary - Discount Retail Investor Relations →
Dollar Tree Inc. (DLTR) closed at $89.58 as of 2026-05-15, trading 22.8% below its 200-week moving average of $115.97. This places DLTR in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -19.0% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 27, DLTR is in oversold territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.4x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.82 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1579 weeks of data, DLTR has crossed below its 200-week moving average 25 times. On average, these episodes lasted 16 weeks. Historically, investors who bought DLTR at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +13.4%.
With a market cap of $17.4 billion, DLTR is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 7.4%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 31.7%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 4.7x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 10.3% over the past three years.
Over the past 30.3 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in DLTR would have grown to $3652, compared to $1953 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 12.6% vs 10.3% for the index — confirming DLTR as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 13% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: DLTR vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After DLTR Crosses Below the Line?
Across 25 historical episodes, buying DLTR when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +11.0% after 12 months (median +8.0%), compared to +7.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 65% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +19.7% vs +16.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment DLTR crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices DLTR would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where DLTR's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (last report: 2026-01-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $87.29 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $102.07 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $122.87 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $154.33 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $207.43 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Historical Touches
DLTR has crossed below its 200-week MA 25 times with an average 1-year return of +13.4% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2000 | Jan 2001 | 4 | 8.3% | +28.9% | +996.9% |
| Mar 2001 | Jun 2001 | 15 | 34.5% | +85.3% | +1372.5% |
| Jul 2001 | Dec 2001 | 21 | 34.3% | +22.6% | +945.7% |
| Jan 2002 | Jan 2002 | 1 | 1.2% | -2.5% | +856.0% |
| Jul 2002 | Jun 2003 | 46 | 37.3% | +18.7% | +828.6% |
| Dec 2003 | Jan 2004 | 5 | 3.5% | -4.9% | +802.7% |
| Mar 2004 | Oct 2004 | 33 | 22.1% | -6.5% | +807.0% |
| Nov 2004 | Dec 2004 | 2 | 0.8% | -17.2% | +849.6% |
| Jan 2005 | Mar 2006 | 64 | 27.1% | -13.0% | +865.0% |
| Apr 2006 | Jul 2006 | 16 | 7.6% | +47.7% | +927.3% |
| Nov 2007 | Apr 2008 | 23 | 23.9% | +32.3% | +838.3% |
| Jun 2017 | Jul 2017 | 6 | 6.1% | +25.6% | +27.8% |
| Aug 2018 | Sep 2018 | 2 | 2.3% | +26.1% | +11.3% |
| Sep 2018 | Oct 2018 | 3 | 2.7% | +40.2% | +9.8% |
| Nov 2018 | Dec 2018 | 5 | 0.4% | +31.4% | +7.9% |
| Jan 2020 | May 2020 | 18 | 22.8% | +23.0% | +2.1% |
| Jun 2020 | Jun 2020 | 2 | 2.9% | +15.3% | +2.1% |
| Aug 2020 | Oct 2020 | 5 | 3.6% | +1.7% | -1.8% |
| Oct 2020 | Nov 2020 | 1 | 1.4% | +19.3% | -0.8% |
| Aug 2021 | Sep 2021 | 5 | 13.1% | +52.6% | -1.4% |
| Aug 2023 | Nov 2023 | 13 | 13.6% | -28.8% | -24.6% |
| Mar 2024 | Mar 2024 | 1 | 0.7% | -46.9% | -28.7% |
| Apr 2024 | Dec 2025 | 86 | 51.5% | -42.4% | -28.4% |
| Jan 2026 | Feb 2026 | 1 | 1.8% | N/A | -23.8% |
| Mar 2026 | Ongoing | 11+ | 22.8% | Ongoing | -22.6% |
| Average | 16 | — | +13.4% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is DLTR below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-05-15, Dollar Tree Inc. (DLTR) is trading 22.8% below its 200-week moving average of $115.97. The current price is $89.58.
What is DLTR's 200-week moving average price?
Dollar Tree Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $115.97 as of 2026-05-15. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when DLTR drops below its 200-week moving average?
DLTR has crossed below its 200-week moving average 25 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +13.4%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 16 weeks on average.
Is DLTR a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about DLTR as of 2026-05-15: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 27 (oversold). Free cash flow yield is 7.4%. Return on equity is 31.7%. Price-to-book is 4.7x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does DLTR compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 30.3 years, $100 invested in DLTR would have grown to $3652, compared to $1953 for the S&P 500. That's 12.6% annualized vs 10.3% for the index. DLTR has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-05-15