DIS

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NO
2.4% ABOVE
↓ Approaching Was 7.8% last week
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%+
Buy Threshold $100.30
14-Week RSI 44
Rel. Volume (14w) This week's trading vs. the 14-week average 1.0x
Buyers vs. Sellers (14w) Are up-weeks or down-weeks getting more volume? 0.95

The Walt Disney Company (DIS) closed at $102.72 as of 2026-05-15, trading 2.4% above its 200-week moving average of $100.30. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 7.8% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 44, indicating neutral momentum.

Trading volume is running at 1.0x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.95 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.

Over the past 3310 weeks of data, DIS has crossed below its 200-week moving average 31 times. On average, these episodes lasted 25 weeks. Historically, investors who bought DIS at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +30.0%.

With a market cap of $178.4 billion, DIS is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 2.1%. Return on equity stands at 11.0%. The stock trades at 1.7x book value.

Over the past 33.4 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in DIS would have grown to $938, compared to $3058 for the S&P 500. DIS has returned 6.9% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.

In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 2 open-market purchases totaling $2,112,734.

Free cash flow has been growing at a 111.4% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.

Business Health

Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.

Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)

Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy

Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)

ROIC Return on invested capital (%)

FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal

Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)

Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)

Growth of $100: DIS vs S&P 500

Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.

What Happens After DIS Crosses Below the Line?

Across 20 historical episodes, buying DIS when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +19.5% after 12 months (median +16.0%), compared to +9.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 63% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +9.3% vs +13.4% for the index.

Each line shows $100 invested at the moment DIS crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.

Bean Score Experimental

The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices DIS would reach each dislocation threshold.

Current Bean Score +0.53σ
Current FCF Yield 3.96%
Baseline Yield 3.63%
Historical σ 0.21pp

Dislocation Price Levels

Prices where DIS's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (last report: 2025-12-31).

LevelσPriceSignal
Deep Value+2σ$95.45Unusually cheap — potential buy zone
Value+1σ$100.28Cheap vs. own history
Fair Value+0σ$105.63Historical mean behavior
Expensive-1σ$111.59Expensive vs. own history
Deep Expensive-2σ$118.26Unusually expensive — potential trim zone
Data depth: 2 quarterly baselines, 32 price observations — Limited history (4+ quarters preferred for reliability)

Signal Accuracy Collecting Data

The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"

0 / 13 weeks minimum

Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.

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Insider Buying Activity

1 conviction buy in the past 12 months (purchases over $500K with meaningful position increases).

DateInsiderTitleValueSharesPosition +%
2025-12-12GORMAN JAMES PDirector$2,013,94318,000+61.6%

Historical Touches

DIS has crossed below its 200-week MA 31 times with an average 1-year return of +30.0% after recovery.

Crossed BelowRecoveredWeeksMax Depth1-Year ReturnReturn Since Touch
Dec 1962Dec 1962311.3%+48.9%+237214.4%
Aug 1966Sep 196634.2%+114.5%+143452.6%
Sep 1966Oct 196639.8%+123.3%+138345.3%
Oct 1973Jul 197824871.9%-64.4%+11726.0%
Sep 1978Dec 19796422.4%-0.6%+18763.5%
Sep 1981Sep 198110.4%+31.1%+17271.5%
Nov 1983Mar 19841812.5%+20.9%+14984.5%
Jun 1984Aug 1984917.8%+80.2%+14662.4%
Aug 1984Sep 198410.0%+61.4%+12862.1%
Oct 1984Oct 198413.4%+59.4%+13239.9%
Oct 1984Nov 198410.1%+65.1%+12739.3%
Oct 1998Oct 199812.7%+7.1%+481.0%
Jul 1999Aug 199946.2%+41.1%+412.3%
Sep 1999Nov 1999912.3%+43.8%+422.0%
Nov 2000Feb 20011216.3%-30.8%+350.1%
Feb 2001May 20011213.8%-21.1%+345.4%
May 2001Jan 200413649.6%-27.0%+325.5%
Jan 2004Feb 200434.3%+18.1%+443.2%
Apr 2004May 200444.6%+15.7%+467.3%
Aug 2004Aug 200437.4%+16.9%+494.1%
Sep 2008Oct 20095344.7%-6.5%+319.5%
Oct 2009Nov 200924.7%+33.5%+346.1%
Sep 2011Oct 201123.3%+79.8%+300.3%
Mar 2018Mar 201810.3%+11.6%+9.7%
Apr 2018Apr 201810.1%+43.2%+9.0%
May 2018Jun 201810.5%+35.0%+8.8%
Mar 2020May 20201022.2%+92.3%+2.6%
Jun 2020Jun 202012.2%+63.5%-3.6%
Mar 2022Mar 202214.7%-29.0%-20.2%
Mar 2022May 202516338.4%-26.9%-23.3%
Mar 2026Apr 202657.6%N/A+3.5%
Average25+30.0%

Frequently Asked Questions

Is DIS below its 200-week moving average?

No. The Walt Disney Company (DIS) is currently 2.4% above its 200-week moving average of $100.30. It would need to fall to $100.30 to cross below the line.

What is DIS's 200-week moving average price?

The Walt Disney Company's 200-week moving average is $100.30 as of 2026-05-15. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.

What happens when DIS drops below its 200-week moving average?

DIS has crossed below its 200-week moving average 31 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +30.0%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 25 weeks on average.

Is DIS a good value right now?

Here's what our data says about DIS as of 2026-05-15: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 44. Free cash flow yield is 2.1%. Return on equity is 11.0%. Price-to-book is 1.7x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.

How does DIS compare to the S&P 500?

Over the past 33.4 years, $100 invested in DIS would have grown to $938, compared to $3058 for the S&P 500. That's 6.9% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. DIS has underperformed the broader market over this period.

Does DIS pay a dividend?

Yes. The Walt Disney Company currently pays a dividend yield of 146.00%.

Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Data as of week of 2026-05-15