DHI
D.R. Horton Inc. Consumer Discretionary - Homebuilders Investor Relations →
D.R. Horton Inc. (DHI) closed at $137.89 as of 2026-09-11, trading 1.5% above its 200-week moving average of $135.80. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 5.3% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 44, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.2x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.00 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1740 weeks of data, DHI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 13 times. On average, these episodes lasted 24 weeks. Historically, investors who bought DHI at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +47.4%.
With a market cap of $38.6 billion, DHI is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 6.3%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 12.6%. The stock trades at 1.6x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 14.4% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.4 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in DHI would have grown to $11551, compared to $3065 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 15.3% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming DHI as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 99.5% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: DHI vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After DHI Crosses Below the Line?
Across 13 historical episodes, buying DHI when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +50.5% after 12 months (median +49.0%), compared to +18.6% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 85% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +68.9% vs +31.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment DHI crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices DHI would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where DHI's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-29.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $133.97 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $146.11 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $160.67 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $178.46 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $200.66 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 | $2.99 | $3.20 | +7.1% |
| 2026-04-21 | $2.14 | $2.24 | +4.7% |
| 2026-01-20 | $1.92 | $2.03 | +5.9% |
| 2025-10-28 | $3.27 | $3.04 | -7.2% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from DHI's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
DHI has crossed below its 200-week MA 13 times with an average 1-year return of +47.4% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 1994 | Aug 1994 | 2 | 3.8% | +47.4% | +10813.7% |
| Nov 1994 | May 1995 | 24 | 21.0% | +50.9% | +10627.7% |
| Sep 1999 | Jul 2000 | 45 | 25.2% | +47.2% | +4931.2% |
| Jul 2006 | Nov 2006 | 18 | 14.6% | -1.2% | +752.9% |
| Feb 2007 | Jan 2011 | 201 | 80.4% | -42.4% | +601.2% |
| Jan 2011 | Feb 2011 | 1 | 1.8% | +26.7% | +1292.4% |
| Feb 2011 | Mar 2011 | 1 | 2.4% | +23.2% | +1320.7% |
| Jun 2011 | Jun 2011 | 2 | 4.0% | +50.2% | +1408.3% |
| Aug 2011 | Oct 2011 | 12 | 19.0% | +68.6% | +1457.5% |
| Nov 2011 | Nov 2011 | 1 | 0.8% | +81.7% | +1388.5% |
| Dec 2018 | Dec 2018 | 1 | 0.9% | +61.9% | +346.2% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 6 | 21.2% | +107.7% | +275.4% |
| Jun 2022 | Jun 2022 | 1 | 4.8% | +94.3% | +137.9% |
| Average | 24 | — | +47.4% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is DHI below its 200-week moving average?
No. D.R. Horton Inc. (DHI) is currently 1.5% above its 200-week moving average of $135.80. It would need to fall to $135.80 to cross below the line.
What is DHI's 200-week moving average price?
D.R. Horton Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $135.80 as of 2026-09-11. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when DHI drops below its 200-week moving average?
DHI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 13 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +47.4%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 24 weeks on average.
Is DHI a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about DHI as of 2026-09-11: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 44. Free cash flow yield is 6.3%. Return on equity is 12.6%. Price-to-book is 1.6x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does DHI compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.4 years, $100 invested in DHI would have grown to $11551, compared to $3065 for the S&P 500. That's 15.3% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. DHI has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does DHI pay a dividend?
Yes. D.R. Horton Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 133.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-11