DG
Dollar General Corporation Consumer Discretionary - Discount Retail Investor Relations →
Dollar General Corporation (DG) closed at $125.75 as of 2026-07-17, trading 4.5% below its 200-week moving average of $131.65. This places DG in the below line zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -10.0% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 57, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.1x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.97 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 822 weeks of data, DG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 4 times. On average, these episodes lasted 40 weeks. Historically, investors who bought DG at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +20.6%.
With a market cap of $27.7 billion, DG is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 6.8%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 18.9%, a solid level. The stock trades at 3.1x book value.
Over the past 15.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in DG would have grown to $520, compared to $829 for the S&P 500. DG has returned 11.0% annualized vs 14.3% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 78.1% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: DG vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After DG Crosses Below the Line?
Across 4 historical episodes, buying DG when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +17.0% after 12 months (median +50.0%), compared to +16.5% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 50% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +14.0% vs +32.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment DG crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices DG would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where DG's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-08-27.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $92.08 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $99.36 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $107.88 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $118.00 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $130.21 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from DG's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
DG has crossed below its 200-week MA 4 times with an average 1-year return of +20.6% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2011 | Feb 2011 | 1 | 0.6% | +57.5% | +438.3% |
| May 2023 | Jan 2026 | 137 | 61.0% | -16.2% | -19.0% |
| Jan 2026 | Feb 2026 | 1 | 1.1% | N/A | -11.5% |
| Mar 2026 | Ongoing | 19+ | 25.6% | Ongoing | -3.7% |
| Average | 40 | — | +20.6% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is DG below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-07-17, Dollar General Corporation (DG) is trading 4.5% below its 200-week moving average of $131.65. The current price is $125.75.
What is DG's 200-week moving average price?
Dollar General Corporation's 200-week moving average is $131.65 as of 2026-07-17. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when DG drops below its 200-week moving average?
DG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 4 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +20.6%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 40 weeks on average.
Is DG a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about DG as of 2026-07-17: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 57. Free cash flow yield is 6.8%. Return on equity is 18.9%. Price-to-book is 3.1x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does DG compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 15.8 years, $100 invested in DG would have grown to $520, compared to $829 for the S&P 500. That's 11.0% annualized vs 14.3% for the index. DG has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does DG pay a dividend?
Yes. Dollar General Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 186.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-17