DG
Dollar General Corporation Consumer Discretionary - Discount Retail Investor Relations →
Dollar General Corporation (DG) closed at $102.38 as of 2026-05-15, trading 25.5% below its 200-week moving average of $137.49. This places DG in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -18.0% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 28, DG is in oversold territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.7x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.83 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 813 weeks of data, DG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 4 times. On average, these episodes lasted 37 weeks. Historically, investors who bought DG at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +20.6%.
With a market cap of $22.5 billion, DG is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 9.6%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 19.0%, a solid level. The stock trades at 2.6x book value.
Over the past 15.7 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in DG would have grown to $421, compared to $822 for the S&P 500. DG has returned 9.6% annualized vs 14.4% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 78.1% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: DG vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After DG Crosses Below the Line?
Across 4 historical episodes, buying DG when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +17.0% after 12 months (median +50.0%), compared to +16.5% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 50% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +14.0% vs +32.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment DG crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices DG would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where DG's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (last report: 2026-01-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $96.15 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $118.89 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $155.70 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $225.53 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $408.94 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Historical Touches
DG has crossed below its 200-week MA 4 times with an average 1-year return of +20.6% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2011 | Feb 2011 | 1 | 0.6% | +57.5% | +336.0% |
| May 2023 | Jan 2026 | 137 | 61.0% | -16.2% | -34.4% |
| Jan 2026 | Feb 2026 | 1 | 1.1% | N/A | -28.3% |
| Mar 2026 | Ongoing | 10+ | 25.5% | Ongoing | -22.0% |
| Average | 37 | — | +20.6% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is DG below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-05-15, Dollar General Corporation (DG) is trading 25.5% below its 200-week moving average of $137.49. The current price is $102.38.
What is DG's 200-week moving average price?
Dollar General Corporation's 200-week moving average is $137.49 as of 2026-05-15. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when DG drops below its 200-week moving average?
DG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 4 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +20.6%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 37 weeks on average.
Is DG a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about DG as of 2026-05-15: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 28 (oversold). Free cash flow yield is 9.6%. Return on equity is 19.0%. Price-to-book is 2.6x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does DG compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 15.7 years, $100 invested in DG would have grown to $421, compared to $822 for the S&P 500. That's 9.6% annualized vs 14.4% for the index. DG has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does DG pay a dividend?
Yes. Dollar General Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 231.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-05-15