DE
Deere & Company Industrials - Agricultural Machinery Investor Relations →
Deere & Company (DE) closed at $597.24 as of 2026-07-17, trading 38.2% above its 200-week moving average of $432.29. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 36.2% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 49, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 0.9x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.15 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2776 weeks of data, DE has crossed below its 200-week moving average 44 times. On average, these episodes lasted 13 weeks. Historically, investors who bought DE at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +36.3%.
With a market cap of $161.2 billion, DE is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 0.7%. Return on equity stands at 18.3%, a solid level. The stock trades at 5.9x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 9.5% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in DE would have grown to $15189, compared to $3082 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 16.1% vs 10.7% for the index — confirming DE as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 52.5% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: DE vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After DE Crosses Below the Line?
Across 21 historical episodes, buying DE when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +43.4% after 12 months (median +23.0%), compared to +11.2% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 90% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +61.2% vs +16.8% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment DE crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices DE would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where DE's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-08-20.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $533.80 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $571.61 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $615.20 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $665.97 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $725.89 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from DE's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
DE has crossed below its 200-week MA 44 times with an average 1-year return of +36.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1973 | Jul 1973 | 9 | 5.0% | +0.1% | +73290.1% |
| Feb 1974 | Feb 1974 | 1 | 2.0% | -13.3% | +66420.3% |
| Mar 1974 | Oct 1974 | 31 | 29.3% | +5.1% | +69578.7% |
| Nov 1974 | Dec 1974 | 5 | 8.9% | +32.0% | +68869.2% |
| Jan 1975 | Mar 1975 | 8 | 11.8% | +43.3% | +68435.5% |
| Mar 1975 | Apr 1975 | 2 | 3.3% | +73.7% | +69884.0% |
| Jul 1975 | Aug 1975 | 2 | 0.1% | +69.4% | +67219.0% |
| Jan 1978 | Jan 1978 | 1 | 1.9% | +68.8% | +51710.4% |
| Feb 1978 | Mar 1978 | 3 | 1.8% | +65.1% | +51434.8% |
| Apr 1980 | May 1980 | 3 | 0.9% | +58.5% | +37161.6% |
| Feb 1982 | Apr 1982 | 8 | 6.9% | +11.0% | +31206.8% |
| Apr 1982 | Jan 1983 | 36 | 32.0% | +35.1% | +32916.8% |
| Jan 1983 | Jan 1983 | 1 | 0.7% | +15.2% | +29431.3% |
| Feb 1984 | Feb 1984 | 2 | 5.1% | -1.6% | +28436.3% |
| Apr 1984 | Jan 1985 | 41 | 23.5% | -6.1% | +27363.5% |
| Feb 1985 | Feb 1985 | 2 | 1.6% | +9.9% | +28888.1% |
| Apr 1985 | Jul 1985 | 14 | 11.7% | +10.8% | +29134.6% |
| Aug 1985 | Feb 1986 | 27 | 16.8% | -23.7% | +29506.7% |
| Jun 1986 | Feb 1987 | 36 | 26.7% | +0.6% | +28622.6% |
| Mar 1987 | May 1987 | 8 | 7.3% | +58.9% | +30195.5% |
| May 1987 | Jun 1987 | 1 | 0.7% | +69.9% | +29329.4% |
| Oct 1987 | Nov 1987 | 1 | 0.7% | +74.7% | +29483.6% |
| Oct 1990 | Jan 1991 | 15 | 14.5% | +16.6% | +16950.6% |
| Nov 1991 | Feb 1992 | 14 | 15.8% | -18.1% | +15317.7% |
| Mar 1992 | Feb 1993 | 47 | 23.8% | +12.8% | +14471.8% |
| Aug 1998 | Apr 1999 | 33 | 26.2% | +14.2% | +5499.5% |
| Apr 1999 | Apr 1999 | 1 | 0.1% | -3.6% | +4799.1% |
| May 1999 | Dec 1999 | 33 | 14.6% | +11.4% | +4897.5% |
| Jan 2000 | May 2000 | 14 | 18.0% | +6.4% | +4763.3% |
| May 2000 | Dec 2000 | 29 | 25.4% | -8.6% | +4604.8% |
| Jan 2001 | Jan 2001 | 2 | 3.5% | +8.8% | +4651.2% |
| Feb 2001 | Jul 2001 | 20 | 12.9% | +22.1% | +4840.3% |
| Sep 2001 | Oct 2001 | 2 | 11.0% | +30.8% | +5341.9% |
| Oct 2001 | Nov 2001 | 3 | 3.8% | +28.0% | +4966.8% |
| Mar 2003 | Mar 2003 | 3 | 1.4% | +67.6% | +4645.7% |
| Sep 2008 | Nov 2009 | 60 | 49.6% | +7.8% | +2048.8% |
| Jan 2010 | Feb 2010 | 2 | 5.0% | +81.2% | +1532.9% |
| Aug 2015 | Feb 2016 | 26 | 9.6% | +9.4% | +809.5% |
| Mar 2016 | Apr 2016 | 4 | 5.5% | +39.7% | +784.0% |
| May 2016 | May 2016 | 2 | 4.1% | +59.6% | +805.6% |
| Jul 2016 | Aug 2016 | 4 | 5.0% | +60.7% | +772.1% |
| Mar 2020 | Mar 2020 | 1 | 15.9% | +239.4% | +484.1% |
| May 2020 | May 2020 | 1 | 6.3% | +209.0% | +414.6% |
| Jul 2024 | Aug 2024 | 2 | 3.7% | +43.6% | +73.4% |
| Average | 13 | — | +36.3% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is DE below its 200-week moving average?
No. Deere & Company (DE) is currently 38.2% above its 200-week moving average of $432.29. It would need to fall to $432.29 to cross below the line.
What is DE's 200-week moving average price?
Deere & Company's 200-week moving average is $432.29 as of 2026-07-17. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when DE drops below its 200-week moving average?
DE has crossed below its 200-week moving average 44 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +36.3%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 13 weeks on average.
Is DE a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about DE as of 2026-07-17: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 49. Free cash flow yield is 0.7%. Return on equity is 18.3%. Price-to-book is 5.9x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does DE compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.6 years, $100 invested in DE would have grown to $15189, compared to $3082 for the S&P 500. That's 16.1% annualized vs 10.7% for the index. DE has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does DE pay a dividend?
Yes. Deere & Company currently pays a dividend yield of 108.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-17