CVX
Chevron Corporation Energy - Oil & Gas Investor Relations →
Chevron Corporation (CVX) closed at $191.10 as of 2026-05-15, trading 29.5% above its 200-week moving average of $147.56. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 23.4% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 57, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.0x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.03 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 3310 weeks of data, CVX has crossed below its 200-week moving average 49 times. On average, these episodes lasted 12 weeks. Historically, investors who bought CVX at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +14.9%.
With a market cap of $380.6 billion, CVX is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 3.1%. Return on equity stands at 6.6%. The stock trades at 2.1x book value.
CVX is a Dividend Aristocrat, having increased its dividend for 25 or more consecutive years. The current yield is 373.00%. Share count has increased 4.2% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 33.4 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in CVX would have grown to $3574, compared to $3058 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 11.3% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming CVX as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -23.9% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: CVX vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After CVX Crosses Below the Line?
Across 21 historical episodes, buying CVX when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +20.2% after 12 months (median +13.0%), compared to +10.6% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 81% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +38.5% vs +22.4% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment CVX crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices CVX would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where CVX's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (last report: 2025-12-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $141.62 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $154.77 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $170.63 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $190.10 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $214.58 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Historical Touches
CVX has crossed below its 200-week MA 49 times with an average 1-year return of +14.9% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1963 | Nov 1963 | 1 | 1.5% | +31.8% | +53561.6% |
| Jul 1966 | Oct 1966 | 12 | 9.9% | -4.7% | +44519.5% |
| Oct 1966 | Dec 1966 | 5 | 2.7% | -6.4% | +43648.0% |
| Dec 1966 | Dec 1967 | 50 | 12.8% | +6.0% | +46010.5% |
| Dec 1967 | Dec 1967 | 1 | 1.0% | +25.7% | +43412.6% |
| Jan 1968 | Apr 1968 | 15 | 5.5% | +13.8% | +43147.8% |
| May 1968 | May 1968 | 1 | 1.2% | +22.7% | +43103.4% |
| May 1968 | Jun 1968 | 1 | 0.4% | +22.2% | +42718.9% |
| Jul 1969 | Aug 1969 | 4 | 3.4% | -23.9% | +41674.7% |
| Sep 1969 | Dec 1970 | 66 | 28.9% | -15.3% | +41715.7% |
| Jan 1971 | Jan 1971 | 1 | 3.0% | +21.9% | +45309.9% |
| Nov 1971 | Nov 1971 | 1 | 0.3% | +58.3% | +42788.0% |
| Feb 1974 | Mar 1974 | 3 | 1.5% | -2.7% | +35598.2% |
| Apr 1974 | Apr 1974 | 4 | 2.4% | -11.0% | +34971.9% |
| May 1974 | May 1975 | 51 | 26.8% | +12.6% | +36810.9% |
| Dec 1975 | Dec 1975 | 3 | 2.4% | +49.0% | +32951.9% |
| Feb 1982 | May 1982 | 12 | 11.1% | +9.5% | +13004.3% |
| May 1982 | Oct 1982 | 21 | 29.4% | +12.1% | +12458.3% |
| Oct 1982 | Feb 1983 | 16 | 17.9% | +15.3% | +13600.0% |
| Mar 1983 | Mar 1983 | 1 | 1.9% | -1.1% | +11783.2% |
| May 1983 | Jun 1983 | 2 | 4.7% | +5.8% | +11332.4% |
| Jul 1983 | Aug 1983 | 2 | 2.9% | -11.8% | +11411.8% |
| Sep 1983 | Apr 1984 | 30 | 9.9% | +6.4% | +11656.7% |
| Jun 1984 | Aug 1984 | 10 | 14.7% | +12.8% | +11683.0% |
| Sep 1984 | Sep 1984 | 3 | 1.8% | +12.3% | +11103.2% |
| Oct 1984 | Jan 1985 | 16 | 12.1% | +17.5% | +11384.2% |
| Mar 1985 | Mar 1985 | 1 | 0.5% | +19.6% | +11609.0% |
| Nov 1987 | Dec 1987 | 1 | 1.9% | +28.7% | +8901.2% |
| Feb 2000 | Feb 2000 | 3 | 4.1% | +19.7% | +1273.6% |
| Dec 2000 | Dec 2000 | 1 | 0.4% | +10.5% | +1159.4% |
| Feb 2002 | Feb 2002 | 2 | 0.6% | -19.3% | +1069.2% |
| Jul 2002 | Nov 2003 | 71 | 21.1% | +1.7% | +1163.8% |
| Oct 2008 | Oct 2008 | 3 | 15.3% | +30.6% | +563.0% |
| Feb 2009 | Sep 2009 | 29 | 15.9% | +18.2% | +478.8% |
| Sep 2009 | Oct 2009 | 1 | 3.1% | +24.8% | +442.0% |
| Feb 2010 | Feb 2010 | 2 | 1.5% | +41.5% | +414.4% |
| May 2010 | Jun 2010 | 1 | 1.6% | +46.5% | +404.1% |
| Jun 2010 | Jul 2010 | 4 | 7.4% | +44.4% | +412.8% |
| Dec 2014 | Dec 2014 | 1 | 3.3% | -11.7% | +202.2% |
| Jan 2015 | Feb 2015 | 3 | 3.8% | -16.8% | +194.4% |
| Mar 2015 | Apr 2015 | 5 | 4.1% | -11.0% | +195.9% |
| May 2015 | Apr 2016 | 48 | 28.7% | -1.3% | +189.2% |
| May 2016 | Jun 2016 | 5 | 2.2% | +8.1% | +187.0% |
| Aug 2016 | Aug 2016 | 1 | 0.7% | +14.0% | +187.8% |
| Sep 2016 | Sep 2016 | 2 | 2.6% | +21.9% | +192.5% |
| Feb 2020 | Feb 2021 | 52 | 43.9% | +13.5% | +167.1% |
| Jul 2021 | Jul 2021 | 2 | 0.3% | +45.8% | +135.7% |
| Aug 2021 | Sep 2021 | 5 | 4.7% | +74.7% | +146.5% |
| Apr 2025 | Jun 2025 | 8 | 3.1% | +45.3% | +47.2% |
| Average | 12 | — | +14.9% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CVX below its 200-week moving average?
No. Chevron Corporation (CVX) is currently 29.5% above its 200-week moving average of $147.56. It would need to fall to $147.56 to cross below the line.
What is CVX's 200-week moving average price?
Chevron Corporation's 200-week moving average is $147.56 as of 2026-05-15. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when CVX drops below its 200-week moving average?
CVX has crossed below its 200-week moving average 49 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +14.9%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 12 weeks on average.
Is CVX a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about CVX as of 2026-05-15: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 57. Free cash flow yield is 3.1%. Return on equity is 6.6%. Price-to-book is 2.1x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does CVX compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.4 years, $100 invested in CVX would have grown to $3574, compared to $3058 for the S&P 500. That's 11.3% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. CVX has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does CVX pay a dividend?
Yes. Chevron Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 373.00%. It is also a Dividend Aristocrat, meaning it has raised its dividend for 25 or more consecutive years.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-05-15