CVS
CVS Health Corporation Healthcare - Pharmacy & Healthcare Investor Relations →
CVS Health Corporation (CVS) closed at $107.47 as of 2026-07-17, trading 57.6% above its 200-week moving average of $68.21. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 52.9% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 78, CVS is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.3x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.16 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2738 weeks of data, CVS has crossed below its 200-week moving average 31 times. On average, these episodes lasted 25 weeks. Historically, investors who bought CVS at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +21.9%.
With a market cap of $137.1 billion, CVS is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 3.8%. Return on equity stands at 3.8%. The stock trades at 1.8x book value.
Over the past 33.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in CVS would have grown to $1760, compared to $3082 for the S&P 500. CVS has returned 8.9% annualized vs 10.7% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -16.6% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: CVS vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After CVS Crosses Below the Line?
Across 23 historical episodes, buying CVS when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +13.5% after 12 months (median +11.0%), compared to +9.5% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 64% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +21.5% vs +21.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment CVS crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices CVS would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where CVS's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-30.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $61.10 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $68.96 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $79.14 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $92.84 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $112.27 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from CVS's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
CVS has crossed below its 200-week MA 31 times with an average 1-year return of +21.9% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1974 | Apr 1975 | 62 | 66.1% | -2.4% | +45363.6% |
| Jul 1975 | Aug 1975 | 4 | 7.2% | +60.5% | +32601.8% |
| Sep 1975 | Sep 1975 | 1 | 0.3% | +61.7% | +32317.5% |
| Nov 1979 | Nov 1979 | 1 | 0.2% | +39.2% | +17737.4% |
| Dec 1979 | Jan 1980 | 1 | 0.8% | +37.8% | +17737.4% |
| Feb 1980 | Apr 1980 | 8 | 8.1% | +74.0% | +18540.1% |
| Nov 1987 | Dec 1987 | 4 | 10.1% | +43.2% | +4135.7% |
| Oct 1990 | Nov 1990 | 6 | 8.3% | +32.8% | +2625.4% |
| Nov 1991 | Dec 1991 | 5 | 3.9% | +36.1% | +2231.6% |
| Jul 1993 | Jul 1993 | 1 | 0.4% | -7.7% | +1924.8% |
| Sep 1993 | Oct 1993 | 4 | 1.4% | -11.1% | +1942.2% |
| Oct 1993 | Apr 1996 | 129 | 29.2% | -19.6% | +1936.5% |
| Dec 1999 | Dec 1999 | 1 | 3.3% | +83.1% | +977.9% |
| Feb 2000 | Mar 2000 | 2 | 10.5% | +99.4% | +1024.7% |
| Jul 2000 | Aug 2000 | 1 | 0.7% | +0.1% | +845.1% |
| Jun 2001 | Nov 2003 | 125 | 46.4% | -20.2% | +781.6% |
| Dec 2003 | Jan 2004 | 6 | 3.8% | +31.5% | +852.2% |
| Mar 2004 | Apr 2004 | 4 | 2.5% | +50.7% | +843.4% |
| Sep 2008 | Jul 2009 | 42 | 25.1% | +11.8% | +407.7% |
| Nov 2009 | Jan 2010 | 9 | 10.6% | +5.0% | +437.5% |
| Jan 2010 | Feb 2010 | 4 | 7.3% | +7.8% | +380.5% |
| May 2010 | Dec 2010 | 28 | 18.4% | +13.8% | +371.5% |
| Jan 2011 | Mar 2011 | 7 | 3.0% | +35.1% | +383.2% |
| Aug 2011 | Aug 2011 | 2 | 3.1% | +37.2% | +371.5% |
| Nov 2016 | Nov 2019 | 156 | 32.9% | -3.0% | +92.7% |
| Jan 2020 | Feb 2020 | 1 | 2.6% | +9.0% | +94.2% |
| Feb 2020 | Nov 2020 | 36 | 20.3% | +18.8% | +122.6% |
| Mar 2023 | Dec 2023 | 40 | 14.6% | +7.7% | +63.7% |
| Jan 2024 | Feb 2024 | 5 | 4.6% | -34.7% | +55.1% |
| Feb 2024 | Mar 2024 | 2 | 4.2% | -6.9% | +59.4% |
| Apr 2024 | Aug 2025 | 72 | 40.9% | -10.8% | +57.8% |
| Average | 25 | — | +21.9% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CVS below its 200-week moving average?
No. CVS Health Corporation (CVS) is currently 57.6% above its 200-week moving average of $68.21. It would need to fall to $68.21 to cross below the line.
What is CVS's 200-week moving average price?
CVS Health Corporation's 200-week moving average is $68.21 as of 2026-07-17. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when CVS drops below its 200-week moving average?
CVS has crossed below its 200-week moving average 31 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +21.9%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 25 weeks on average.
Is CVS a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about CVS as of 2026-07-17: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 78 (overbought). Free cash flow yield is 3.8%. Return on equity is 3.8%. Price-to-book is 1.8x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does CVS compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.6 years, $100 invested in CVS would have grown to $1760, compared to $3082 for the S&P 500. That's 8.9% annualized vs 10.7% for the index. CVS has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does CVS pay a dividend?
Yes. CVS Health Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 250.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-17