CVNA
Carvana Co. Consumer Discretionary - Auto Retail Investor Relations →
Carvana Co. (CVNA) closed at $281.28 as of 2026-03-20, trading 91.7% above its 200-week moving average of $146.72. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 106.3% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 26, CVNA is in oversold territory.
Over the past 14 weeks, down-weeks have had more trading volume than up-weeks (0.69 buyers-vs-sellers ratio). That means when people are active, they're more often selling than buying. Sellers are still more in control than buyers.
Over the past 416 weeks of data, CVNA has crossed below its 200-week moving average 3 times. On average, these episodes lasted 42 weeks. Historically, investors who bought CVNA at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +209.9%.
With a market cap of $61.6 billion, CVNA is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 0.4%. Return on equity stands at 67.9%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 11.6x book value.
Share count has increased 34.1% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in CVNA would have grown to $1104, compared to $278 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 35.0% vs 13.6% for the index — confirming CVNA as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: CVNA vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After CVNA Crosses Below the Line?
Across 3 historical episodes, buying CVNA when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +99.3% after 12 months (median -90.0%), compared to +13.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 33% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +23.0% vs +37.3% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment CVNA crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
CVNA has crossed below its 200-week MA 3 times with an average 1-year return of +209.9% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2020 | Mar 2020 | 1 | 34.9% | +817.3% | +858.4% |
| Jan 2022 | Jan 2022 | 1 | 4.2% | -95.2% | +107.4% |
| Feb 2022 | Jun 2024 | 124 | 97.2% | -92.3% | +99.0% |
| Average | 42 | — | +209.9% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CVNA below its 200-week moving average?
No. Carvana Co. (CVNA) is currently 91.7% above its 200-week moving average of $146.72. It would need to fall to $146.72 to cross below the line.
What is CVNA's 200-week moving average price?
Carvana Co.'s 200-week moving average is $146.72 as of 2026-03-20. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when CVNA drops below its 200-week moving average?
CVNA has crossed below its 200-week moving average 3 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +209.9%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 42 weeks on average.
Is CVNA a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about CVNA as of 2026-03-20: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 26 (oversold). Free cash flow yield is 0.4%. Return on equity is 67.9%. Price-to-book is 11.6x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does CVNA compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 8 years, $100 invested in CVNA would have grown to $1104, compared to $278 for the S&P 500. That's 35.0% annualized vs 13.6% for the index. CVNA has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-03-20