CSX
CSX Corporation Industrials - Railroads Investor Relations →
CSX Corporation (CSX) closed at $50.75 as of 2026-07-17, trading 52.0% above its 200-week moving average of $33.38. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 48.5% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 80, CSX is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.3x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.09 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2336 weeks of data, CSX has crossed below its 200-week moving average 29 times. On average, these episodes lasted 12 weeks. Historically, investors who bought CSX at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +31.3%.
With a market cap of $94.3 billion, CSX is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 1.2%. Return on equity stands at 23.7%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 7.0x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 10.0% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in CSX would have grown to $4662, compared to $3082 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 12.1% vs 10.7% for the index — confirming CSX as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 2 open-market purchases totaling $3,034,600.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -20.6% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: CSX vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After CSX Crosses Below the Line?
Across 22 historical episodes, buying CSX when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +22.7% after 12 months (median +17.0%), compared to +15.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 77% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +47.4% vs +27.4% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment CSX crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices CSX would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where CSX's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-22.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $40.74 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $42.77 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $45.02 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $47.51 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $50.30 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from CSX's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
CSX has crossed below its 200-week MA 29 times with an average 1-year return of +31.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1982 | Aug 1982 | 26 | 21.4% | +39.1% | +36568.1% |
| Sep 1982 | Oct 1982 | 3 | 8.0% | +80.4% | +36570.0% |
| Oct 1987 | Dec 1987 | 8 | 10.6% | +23.9% | +15867.5% |
| May 1988 | Jul 1988 | 9 | 6.9% | +28.8% | +15296.7% |
| Jul 1988 | Sep 1988 | 9 | 9.8% | +32.0% | +15301.5% |
| Aug 1990 | Aug 1990 | 1 | 3.5% | +82.5% | +12823.0% |
| Sep 1990 | Nov 1990 | 9 | 9.8% | +80.4% | +12995.3% |
| Jul 1998 | Apr 1999 | 41 | 17.3% | +13.2% | +3330.7% |
| Jun 1999 | Jun 1999 | 3 | 3.6% | -52.0% | +3204.8% |
| Aug 1999 | May 2001 | 88 | 53.1% | -44.8% | +3147.1% |
| Jun 2001 | Jul 2001 | 4 | 7.1% | +1.7% | +3987.4% |
| Sep 2001 | Nov 2001 | 9 | 19.4% | -13.8% | +3825.5% |
| Dec 2001 | Dec 2001 | 1 | 0.8% | -16.7% | +3922.8% |
| Sep 2002 | Apr 2003 | 32 | 18.8% | +8.4% | +4453.1% |
| Jun 2003 | Jun 2003 | 1 | 0.3% | +10.5% | +4348.2% |
| Sep 2003 | Sep 2003 | 1 | 0.7% | +17.5% | +4422.8% |
| Mar 2004 | May 2004 | 10 | 3.3% | +43.9% | +4304.9% |
| Jul 2004 | Aug 2004 | 5 | 3.7% | +47.1% | +4175.1% |
| Nov 2008 | Jul 2009 | 35 | 42.1% | +48.2% | +1762.5% |
| Dec 2015 | Apr 2016 | 19 | 15.1% | +48.7% | +591.3% |
| May 2016 | May 2016 | 4 | 5.8% | +105.2% | +574.6% |
| Jun 2016 | Jul 2016 | 3 | 3.5% | +108.8% | +581.9% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 3 | 11.7% | +84.4% | +231.8% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 4 | 3.5% | +17.0% | +100.9% |
| Mar 2023 | Mar 2023 | 1 | 0.5% | +34.0% | +88.2% |
| Oct 2023 | Oct 2023 | 1 | 1.0% | +15.4% | +80.5% |
| Dec 2024 | Dec 2024 | 1 | 0.7% | +16.4% | +62.9% |
| Jan 2025 | Jan 2025 | 1 | 1.1% | +12.5% | +63.3% |
| Feb 2025 | Jun 2025 | 14 | 14.9% | +35.4% | +61.5% |
| Average | 12 | — | +31.3% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CSX below its 200-week moving average?
No. CSX Corporation (CSX) is currently 52.0% above its 200-week moving average of $33.38. It would need to fall to $33.38 to cross below the line.
What is CSX's 200-week moving average price?
CSX Corporation's 200-week moving average is $33.38 as of 2026-07-17. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when CSX drops below its 200-week moving average?
CSX has crossed below its 200-week moving average 29 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +31.3%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 12 weeks on average.
Is CSX a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about CSX as of 2026-07-17: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 80 (overbought). Free cash flow yield is 1.2%. Return on equity is 23.7%. Price-to-book is 7.0x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does CSX compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.6 years, $100 invested in CSX would have grown to $4662, compared to $3082 for the S&P 500. That's 12.1% annualized vs 10.7% for the index. CSX has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does CSX pay a dividend?
Yes. CSX Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 110.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-17