CSCO
Cisco Systems Inc. Technology - Networking Investor Relations →
Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO) closed at $112.13 as of 2026-09-11, trading 83.4% above its 200-week moving average of $61.14. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 79.7% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 41, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 0.6x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.83 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1860 weeks of data, CSCO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 26 times. On average, these episodes lasted 17 weeks. Historically, investors who bought CSCO at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +11.6%.
With a market cap of $442.1 billion, CSCO is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 2.5%. Return on equity stands at 27.3%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 8.8x book value.
Over the past 33.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in CSCO would have grown to $14228, compared to $3170 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 15.8% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming CSCO as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -12.5% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: CSCO vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After CSCO Crosses Below the Line?
Across 26 historical episodes, buying CSCO when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +13.7% after 12 months (median +12.0%), compared to +12.1% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 65% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +32.1% vs +24.8% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment CSCO crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices CSCO would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where CSCO's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-11-12.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $103.57 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $118.06 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $137.27 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $163.93 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $203.44 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-12 | $1.17 | $1.22 | +4.4% |
| 2026-05-13 | $1.04 | $1.06 | +2.3% |
| 2026-02-11 | $1.02 | $1.04 | +1.8% |
| 2025-11-12 | $0.98 | $1.00 | +1.8% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from CSCO's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
CSCO has crossed below its 200-week MA 26 times with an average 1-year return of +11.6% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2001 | Jan 2004 | 153 | 71.4% | -40.5% | +520.4% |
| Jan 2004 | Mar 2004 | 9 | 8.6% | -30.4% | +580.2% |
| Apr 2004 | May 2004 | 7 | 10.6% | -23.5% | +678.0% |
| Aug 2004 | Oct 2004 | 12 | 11.9% | -3.2% | +777.5% |
| Jan 2005 | Feb 2005 | 5 | 4.4% | +4.9% | +877.0% |
| Mar 2005 | May 2005 | 7 | 4.1% | +21.5% | +882.5% |
| Aug 2005 | Sep 2005 | 4 | 4.0% | +9.8% | +882.5% |
| Sep 2005 | Jan 2006 | 15 | 5.7% | +26.8% | +868.9% |
| Jul 2006 | Aug 2006 | 4 | 8.7% | +66.6% | +874.8% |
| Jul 2008 | Aug 2008 | 4 | 4.9% | -15.9% | +701.5% |
| Sep 2008 | Sep 2008 | 1 | 3.0% | -1.9% | +685.6% |
| Sep 2008 | Sep 2009 | 49 | 37.8% | +6.7% | +723.0% |
| Sep 2009 | Oct 2009 | 2 | 1.6% | -2.3% | +673.1% |
| Oct 2009 | Nov 2009 | 1 | 1.5% | +0.2% | +666.7% |
| Jan 2010 | Feb 2010 | 2 | 4.0% | -9.8% | +661.4% |
| May 2010 | Feb 2012 | 91 | 32.4% | -29.3% | +645.5% |
| Feb 2012 | Mar 2012 | 2 | 1.6% | +7.9% | +772.2% |
| Apr 2012 | Sep 2012 | 18 | 18.9% | +12.0% | +798.0% |
| Sep 2012 | Dec 2012 | 11 | 12.9% | +33.6% | +804.3% |
| Mar 2020 | Mar 2020 | 3 | 8.4% | +34.3% | +259.7% |
| Sep 2020 | Nov 2020 | 9 | 11.1% | +49.8% | +233.7% |
| May 2022 | Aug 2022 | 12 | 8.8% | +18.3% | +194.5% |
| Aug 2022 | Nov 2022 | 12 | 13.9% | +25.4% | +173.1% |
| May 2024 | Jun 2024 | 4 | 2.8% | +40.0% | +155.5% |
| Jul 2024 | Jul 2024 | 1 | 0.2% | +52.8% | +152.1% |
| Jul 2024 | Aug 2024 | 2 | 3.3% | +47.8% | +152.0% |
| Average | 17 | — | +11.6% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CSCO below its 200-week moving average?
No. Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO) is currently 83.4% above its 200-week moving average of $61.14. It would need to fall to $61.14 to cross below the line.
What is CSCO's 200-week moving average price?
Cisco Systems Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $61.14 as of 2026-09-11. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when CSCO drops below its 200-week moving average?
CSCO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 26 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +11.6%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 17 weeks on average.
Is CSCO a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about CSCO as of 2026-09-11: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 41. Free cash flow yield is 2.5%. Return on equity is 27.3%. Price-to-book is 8.8x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does CSCO compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.8 years, $100 invested in CSCO would have grown to $14228, compared to $3170 for the S&P 500. That's 15.8% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. CSCO has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does CSCO pay a dividend?
Yes. Cisco Systems Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 150.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-11