CRM
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Salesforce Inc. (CRM) closed at $173.51 as of 2026-05-15, trading 25.5% below its 200-week moving average of $233.04. This places CRM in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -22.0% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 43, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.1x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.96 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1094 weeks of data, CRM has crossed below its 200-week moving average 6 times. On average, these episodes lasted 21 weeks. Historically, investors who bought CRM at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +57.4%.
With a market cap of $141.9 billion, CRM is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 11.5%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 12.4%. The stock trades at 2.7x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 5.3% over the past three years.
Over the past 21.1 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in CRM would have grown to $3427, compared to $911 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 18.3% vs 11.0% for the index — confirming CRM as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 5 open-market purchases totaling $27,382,673. Notably, these purchases occurred while CRM is trading below its 200-week moving average — insiders are buying when the market is most pessimistic.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 31.6% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: CRM vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After CRM Crosses Below the Line?
Across 6 historical episodes, buying CRM when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +48.0% after 12 months (median +53.0%), compared to +16.2% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 100% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +124.2% vs +29.2% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment CRM crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices CRM would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where CRM's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (last report: 2026-01-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $168.26 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $176.71 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $186.04 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $196.42 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $208.02 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Historical Touches
CRM has crossed below its 200-week MA 6 times with an average 1-year return of +57.4% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2006 | Jul 2006 | 2 | 4.2% | +102.3% | +3098.1% |
| Oct 2008 | Jul 2009 | 41 | 43.6% | +87.3% | +2062.9% |
| Apr 2022 | May 2023 | 56 | 34.9% | +2.8% | -7.0% |
| Sep 2023 | Oct 2023 | 5 | 4.5% | +37.0% | -13.2% |
| Nov 2025 | Dec 2025 | 2 | 1.7% | N/A | -23.3% |
| Jan 2026 | Ongoing | 18+ | 29.3% | Ongoing | -23.4% |
| Average | 21 | — | +57.4% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CRM below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-05-15, Salesforce Inc. (CRM) is trading 25.5% below its 200-week moving average of $233.04. The current price is $173.51.
What is CRM's 200-week moving average price?
Salesforce Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $233.04 as of 2026-05-15. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when CRM drops below its 200-week moving average?
CRM has crossed below its 200-week moving average 6 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +57.4%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 21 weeks on average.
Is CRM a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about CRM as of 2026-05-15: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 43. Free cash flow yield is 11.5%. Return on equity is 12.4%. Price-to-book is 2.7x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does CRM compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 21.1 years, $100 invested in CRM would have grown to $3427, compared to $911 for the S&P 500. That's 18.3% annualized vs 11.0% for the index. CRM has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does CRM pay a dividend?
Yes. Salesforce Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 101.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-05-15