CRM
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Salesforce Inc. (CRM) closed at $247.72 as of 2026-09-11, trading 5.4% above its 200-week moving average of $235.06. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 10.5% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 68, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 0.8x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.04 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1111 weeks of data, CRM has crossed below its 200-week moving average 6 times. On average, these episodes lasted 23 weeks. Historically, investors who bought CRM at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +57.4%.
With a market cap of $203.9 billion, CRM is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 8.7%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 19.4%, a solid level. The stock trades at 5.3x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 5.3% over the past three years.
Over the past 21.4 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in CRM would have grown to $4905, compared to $944 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 19.9% vs 11.1% for the index — confirming CRM as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 4 open-market purchases totaling $26,516,846.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 31.6% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: CRM vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After CRM Crosses Below the Line?
Across 6 historical episodes, buying CRM when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +48.0% after 12 months (median +53.0%), compared to +16.2% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 100% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +124.2% vs +29.2% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment CRM crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices CRM would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where CRM's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-12-02.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $144.71 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $162.59 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $185.51 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $215.95 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $258.35 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | $3.27 | $5.90 | +80.4% |
| 2026-05-27 | $3.13 | $3.88 | +24.1% |
| 2026-02-25 | $3.05 | $3.81 | +24.9% |
| 2025-12-03 | $2.86 | $3.25 | +13.6% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from CRM's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
CRM has crossed below its 200-week MA 6 times with an average 1-year return of +57.4% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2006 | Jul 2006 | 2 | 4.2% | +102.3% | +4477.8% |
| Oct 2008 | Jul 2009 | 41 | 43.6% | +87.3% | +2995.9% |
| Apr 2022 | May 2023 | 56 | 34.9% | +2.8% | +33.0% |
| Sep 2023 | Oct 2023 | 5 | 4.5% | +37.0% | +24.3% |
| Nov 2025 | Dec 2025 | 2 | 1.7% | N/A | +9.8% |
| Jan 2026 | Aug 2026 | 32 | 34.6% | N/A | +9.6% |
| Average | 23 | — | +57.4% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CRM below its 200-week moving average?
No. Salesforce Inc. (CRM) is currently 5.4% above its 200-week moving average of $235.06. It would need to fall to $235.06 to cross below the line.
What is CRM's 200-week moving average price?
Salesforce Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $235.06 as of 2026-09-11. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when CRM drops below its 200-week moving average?
CRM has crossed below its 200-week moving average 6 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +57.4%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 23 weeks on average.
Is CRM a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about CRM as of 2026-09-11: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 68. Free cash flow yield is 8.7%. Return on equity is 19.4%. Price-to-book is 5.3x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does CRM compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 21.4 years, $100 invested in CRM would have grown to $4905, compared to $944 for the S&P 500. That's 19.9% annualized vs 11.1% for the index. CRM has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does CRM pay a dividend?
Yes. Salesforce Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 72.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-11