COP
ConocoPhillips Energy - Oil & Gas E&P Investor Relations →
ConocoPhillips (COP) closed at $122.41 as of 2026-05-15, trading 21.5% above its 200-week moving average of $100.73. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 12.5% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 61, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 0.8x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.18 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2267 weeks of data, COP has crossed below its 200-week moving average 15 times. On average, these episodes lasted 28 weeks. Historically, investors who bought COP at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +26.2%.
With a market cap of $149.1 billion, COP is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 3.5%. Return on equity stands at 11.3%. The stock trades at 2.3x book value.
Over the past 33.4 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in COP would have grown to $3427, compared to $3058 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 11.2% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming COP as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 2 open-market purchases totaling $999,472.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -26.4% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: COP vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After COP Crosses Below the Line?
Across 13 historical episodes, buying COP when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +23.8% after 12 months (median +23.0%), compared to +12.4% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 77% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +60.4% vs +23.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment COP crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices COP would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where COP's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $102.66 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $121.69 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $149.39 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $193.41 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $274.20 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Historical Touches
COP has crossed below its 200-week MA 15 times with an average 1-year return of +26.2% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1986 | Nov 1986 | 41 | 21.2% | +23.3% | +11828.5% |
| Oct 1987 | Dec 1987 | 8 | 12.1% | +77.6% | +9878.6% |
| Jan 1999 | Mar 1999 | 5 | 4.4% | +6.3% | +1884.9% |
| Jan 2000 | Mar 2000 | 10 | 14.0% | +33.2% | +1643.9% |
| Jul 2002 | Aug 2002 | 3 | 5.9% | +13.1% | +1323.5% |
| Sep 2002 | Mar 2003 | 26 | 9.7% | +18.5% | +1318.7% |
| Apr 2003 | Apr 2003 | 1 | 1.2% | +46.7% | +1251.1% |
| Sep 2008 | Oct 2010 | 105 | 45.9% | -26.3% | +352.7% |
| Jul 2015 | Oct 2017 | 121 | 43.6% | -25.5% | +193.4% |
| Nov 2017 | Dec 2017 | 4 | 3.7% | +34.3% | +221.3% |
| Aug 2019 | Aug 2019 | 2 | 3.0% | -17.9% | +203.0% |
| Feb 2020 | Feb 2021 | 52 | 50.0% | +12.0% | +217.4% |
| Apr 2021 | May 2021 | 4 | 3.3% | +107.7% | +187.8% |
| Mar 2025 | Mar 2025 | 1 | 4.8% | +33.6% | +40.7% |
| Mar 2025 | Jan 2026 | 43 | 13.2% | +56.4% | +47.8% |
| Average | 28 | — | +26.2% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is COP below its 200-week moving average?
No. ConocoPhillips (COP) is currently 21.5% above its 200-week moving average of $100.73. It would need to fall to $100.73 to cross below the line.
What is COP's 200-week moving average price?
ConocoPhillips's 200-week moving average is $100.73 as of 2026-05-15. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when COP drops below its 200-week moving average?
COP has crossed below its 200-week moving average 15 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +26.2%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 28 weeks on average.
Is COP a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about COP as of 2026-05-15: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 61. Free cash flow yield is 3.5%. Return on equity is 11.3%. Price-to-book is 2.3x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does COP compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.4 years, $100 invested in COP would have grown to $3427, compared to $3058 for the S&P 500. That's 11.2% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. COP has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does COP pay a dividend?
Yes. ConocoPhillips currently pays a dividend yield of 274.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-05-15