COP
ConocoPhillips Energy - Oil & Gas E&P Investor Relations →
ConocoPhillips (COP) closed at $137.35 as of 2026-09-11, trading 34.6% above its 200-week moving average of $102.00. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 31.8% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 67, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 0.8x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.87 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2284 weeks of data, COP has crossed below its 200-week moving average 17 times. On average, these episodes lasted 25 weeks. Historically, investors who bought COP at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +26.6%.
With a market cap of $165.0 billion, COP is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 4.7%. Return on equity stands at 14.2%. The stock trades at 2.5x book value.
Over the past 33.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in COP would have grown to $3871, compared to $3170 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 11.4% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming COP as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 1 open-market purchase totaling $500,000.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -26.4% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: COP vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After COP Crosses Below the Line?
Across 15 historical episodes, buying COP when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +21.6% after 12 months (median +14.0%), compared to +12.4% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 80% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +59.5% vs +21.2% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment COP crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices COP would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where COP's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-11-05.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $86.81 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $96.19 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $107.83 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $122.69 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $142.29 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | $2.92 | $3.24 | +10.8% |
| 2026-04-30 | $1.69 | $1.89 | +11.5% |
| 2026-02-05 | $1.09 | $1.02 | -6.5% |
| 2025-11-06 | $1.41 | $1.61 | +14.1% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from COP's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
COP has crossed below its 200-week MA 17 times with an average 1-year return of +26.6% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1986 | Nov 1986 | 40 | 20.0% | +48.6% | +14227.0% |
| Nov 1987 | Dec 1987 | 7 | 12.2% | +77.9% | +11536.2% |
| Feb 1992 | Feb 1992 | 1 | 0.0% | +28.0% | +4849.4% |
| Jan 1999 | Feb 1999 | 1 | 3.1% | +6.3% | +2142.0% |
| Feb 1999 | Mar 1999 | 2 | 4.4% | +5.4% | +2166.7% |
| Jan 2000 | Mar 2000 | 10 | 14.1% | +33.2% | +1869.8% |
| Jul 2002 | Aug 2002 | 3 | 6.0% | +13.1% | +1507.9% |
| Sep 2002 | Mar 2003 | 26 | 9.7% | +18.5% | +1502.5% |
| Apr 2003 | Apr 2003 | 1 | 1.2% | +46.7% | +1426.1% |
| Sep 2008 | Oct 2010 | 105 | 45.9% | -26.3% | +411.4% |
| Jul 2015 | Oct 2017 | 121 | 43.7% | -25.5% | +231.4% |
| Nov 2017 | Dec 2017 | 4 | 3.8% | +34.3% | +262.9% |
| Aug 2019 | Aug 2019 | 2 | 3.0% | -17.9% | +242.2% |
| Feb 2020 | Feb 2021 | 52 | 50.0% | +12.0% | +258.5% |
| Apr 2021 | May 2021 | 4 | 3.4% | +107.7% | +225.1% |
| Mar 2025 | Mar 2025 | 1 | 4.9% | +33.6% | +59.0% |
| Mar 2025 | Jan 2026 | 43 | 13.2% | +56.4% | +67.0% |
| Average | 25 | — | +26.6% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is COP below its 200-week moving average?
No. ConocoPhillips (COP) is currently 34.6% above its 200-week moving average of $102.00. It would need to fall to $102.00 to cross below the line.
What is COP's 200-week moving average price?
ConocoPhillips's 200-week moving average is $102.00 as of 2026-09-11. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when COP drops below its 200-week moving average?
COP has crossed below its 200-week moving average 17 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +26.6%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 25 weeks on average.
Is COP a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about COP as of 2026-09-11: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 67. Free cash flow yield is 4.7%. Return on equity is 14.2%. Price-to-book is 2.5x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does COP compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.8 years, $100 invested in COP would have grown to $3871, compared to $3170 for the S&P 500. That's 11.4% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. COP has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does COP pay a dividend?
Yes. ConocoPhillips currently pays a dividend yield of 245.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-11