COF
Capital One Financial Corporation Financial Services - Banking Investor Relations →
Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) closed at $208.30 as of 2026-09-11, trading 33.4% above its 200-week moving average of $156.14. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 41.1% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 66, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 0.8x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.08 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1612 weeks of data, COF has crossed below its 200-week moving average 19 times. On average, these episodes lasted 19 weeks. Historically, investors who bought COF at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +12.9%.
With a market cap of $127.8 billion, COF is a large-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 9.0%. The stock trades at 1.2x book value.
Share count has increased 63.9% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 31 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in COF would have grown to $3396, compared to $2232 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 12.0% vs 10.5% for the index — confirming COF as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 26.6% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: COF vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After COF Crosses Below the Line?
Across 19 historical episodes, buying COF when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +22.0% after 12 months (median +26.0%), compared to +11.6% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 68% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +55.6% vs +28.8% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment COF crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices COF would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where COF's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-20.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $198.43 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $206.49 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $215.22 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $224.73 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $235.12 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 | $4.69 | $5.81 | +23.8% |
| 2026-04-21 | $4.57 | $4.42 | -3.3% |
| 2026-01-22 | $4.14 | $3.86 | -6.8% |
| 2025-10-21 | $4.36 | $5.95 | +36.4% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from COF's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
COF has crossed below its 200-week MA 19 times with an average 1-year return of +12.9% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2001 | Sep 2001 | 1 | 12.5% | -12.6% | +625.2% |
| Oct 2001 | Nov 2001 | 4 | 5.5% | -31.4% | +547.5% |
| Jan 2002 | Feb 2002 | 4 | 9.4% | -35.7% | +498.8% |
| Jul 2002 | Jun 2003 | 46 | 44.5% | +39.5% | +722.5% |
| Jun 2003 | Jun 2003 | 1 | 0.0% | +44.0% | +490.4% |
| Jul 2003 | Aug 2003 | 4 | 3.9% | +35.1% | +489.5% |
| Apr 2007 | Apr 2007 | 3 | 1.8% | -29.5% | +291.2% |
| Jul 2007 | Dec 2010 | 180 | 86.5% | -48.0% | +280.7% |
| Jan 2016 | Feb 2016 | 8 | 10.6% | +41.2% | +293.1% |
| Apr 2016 | Apr 2016 | 1 | 3.1% | +28.1% | +276.3% |
| May 2016 | May 2016 | 1 | 0.3% | +18.0% | +263.0% |
| Jun 2016 | Aug 2016 | 11 | 10.8% | +29.4% | +288.6% |
| Dec 2018 | Jan 2019 | 4 | 9.9% | +35.0% | +202.1% |
| Jan 2019 | Feb 2019 | 3 | 2.8% | +33.4% | +198.7% |
| Mar 2019 | Mar 2019 | 1 | 0.3% | -42.8% | +195.8% |
| Mar 2020 | Nov 2020 | 36 | 50.0% | +57.2% | +182.8% |
| Sep 2022 | Jan 2023 | 19 | 14.3% | +5.1% | +119.6% |
| Mar 2023 | May 2023 | 12 | 18.4% | +42.9% | +125.0% |
| Aug 2023 | Nov 2023 | 15 | 15.9% | +35.4% | +107.7% |
| Average | 19 | — | +12.9% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is COF below its 200-week moving average?
No. Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) is currently 33.4% above its 200-week moving average of $156.14. It would need to fall to $156.14 to cross below the line.
What is COF's 200-week moving average price?
Capital One Financial Corporation's 200-week moving average is $156.14 as of 2026-09-11. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when COF drops below its 200-week moving average?
COF has crossed below its 200-week moving average 19 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +12.9%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 19 weeks on average.
Is COF a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about COF as of 2026-09-11: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 66. Return on equity is 9.0%. Price-to-book is 1.2x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does COF compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 31 years, $100 invested in COF would have grown to $3396, compared to $2232 for the S&P 500. That's 12.0% annualized vs 10.5% for the index. COF has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does COF pay a dividend?
Yes. Capital One Financial Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 155.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-11