COF
Capital One Financial Corporation Financial Services - Banking Investor Relations →
Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) closed at $187.17 as of 2026-05-15, trading 26.3% above its 200-week moving average of $148.16. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 28.3% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 33, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.1x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.76 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1595 weeks of data, COF has crossed below its 200-week moving average 19 times. On average, these episodes lasted 19 weeks. Historically, investors who bought COF at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +12.8%.
With a market cap of $116.5 billion, COF is a large-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 3.3%. The stock trades at 1.1x book value.
Share count has increased 63.9% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 30.7 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in COF would have grown to $3037, compared to $2153 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 11.8% vs 10.5% for the index — confirming COF as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 26.6% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: COF vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After COF Crosses Below the Line?
Across 19 historical episodes, buying COF when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +22.0% after 12 months (median +26.0%), compared to +11.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 68% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +55.6% vs +29.1% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment COF crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices COF would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where COF's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (last report: 2025-12-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $169.16 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $191.04 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $219.42 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $257.71 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $312.19 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Historical Touches
COF has crossed below its 200-week MA 19 times with an average 1-year return of +12.8% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2001 | Sep 2001 | 1 | 12.5% | -12.6% | +546.6% |
| Oct 2001 | Nov 2001 | 4 | 5.5% | -31.4% | +477.3% |
| Jan 2002 | Feb 2002 | 4 | 9.4% | -35.7% | +433.9% |
| Jul 2002 | Jun 2003 | 46 | 44.5% | +39.5% | +633.3% |
| Jun 2003 | Jun 2003 | 1 | 0.0% | +44.0% | +426.4% |
| Jul 2003 | Aug 2003 | 4 | 3.9% | +35.1% | +425.5% |
| Apr 2007 | Apr 2007 | 3 | 1.8% | -29.5% | +248.8% |
| Jul 2007 | Dec 2010 | 180 | 86.5% | -48.0% | +239.4% |
| Jan 2016 | Feb 2016 | 8 | 10.5% | +41.2% | +250.5% |
| Apr 2016 | Apr 2016 | 1 | 3.1% | +28.1% | +235.5% |
| May 2016 | May 2016 | 1 | 0.9% | +18.1% | +225.5% |
| Jun 2016 | Aug 2016 | 11 | 10.8% | +29.4% | +246.5% |
| Dec 2018 | Jan 2019 | 4 | 9.8% | +35.0% | +169.4% |
| Jan 2019 | Feb 2019 | 3 | 3.3% | +33.4% | +166.4% |
| Mar 2019 | Mar 2019 | 1 | 0.3% | -42.8% | +163.7% |
| Mar 2020 | Nov 2020 | 36 | 50.0% | +57.2% | +152.1% |
| Sep 2022 | Jan 2023 | 19 | 14.3% | +5.1% | +95.8% |
| Mar 2023 | May 2023 | 12 | 18.9% | +42.9% | +100.6% |
| Aug 2023 | Nov 2023 | 15 | 15.9% | +34.8% | +85.2% |
| Average | 19 | — | +12.8% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is COF below its 200-week moving average?
No. Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) is currently 26.3% above its 200-week moving average of $148.16. It would need to fall to $148.16 to cross below the line.
What is COF's 200-week moving average price?
Capital One Financial Corporation's 200-week moving average is $148.16 as of 2026-05-15. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when COF drops below its 200-week moving average?
COF has crossed below its 200-week moving average 19 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +12.8%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 19 weeks on average.
Is COF a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about COF as of 2026-05-15: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 33. Return on equity is 3.3%. Price-to-book is 1.1x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does COF compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 30.7 years, $100 invested in COF would have grown to $3037, compared to $2153 for the S&P 500. That's 11.8% annualized vs 10.5% for the index. COF has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does COF pay a dividend?
Yes. Capital One Financial Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 171.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-05-15