CMG
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. Consumer Discretionary - Restaurants Investor Relations →
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (CMG) closed at $32.65 as of 2026-05-15, trading 26.1% below its 200-week moving average of $44.19. This places CMG in the extreme value zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -26.4% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 34, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.0x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.78 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1011 weeks of data, CMG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 8 times. On average, these episodes lasted 29 weeks. Historically, investors who bought CMG at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +51.1%.
With a market cap of $41.9 billion, CMG is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 2.6%. Return on equity stands at 49.2%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 17.4x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 5.6% over the past three years.
Over the past 19.4 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in CMG would have grown to $2720, compared to $733 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 18.5% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming CMG as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 19.7% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: CMG vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After CMG Crosses Below the Line?
Across 8 historical episodes, buying CMG when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +58.0% after 12 months (median +81.0%), compared to +8.5% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 83% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +149.8% vs +30.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment CMG crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices CMG would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where CMG's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $28.71 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $30.57 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $32.70 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $35.14 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $37.97 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Historical Touches
CMG has crossed below its 200-week MA 8 times with an average 1-year return of +51.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2008 | Apr 2009 | 40 | 49.2% | +9.6% | +2148.3% |
| May 2009 | May 2009 | 2 | 0.6% | +85.2% | +2080.7% |
| Dec 2015 | Aug 2018 | 137 | 49.7% | -21.3% | +229.7% |
| Aug 2018 | Sep 2018 | 1 | 0.7% | +76.4% | +243.6% |
| Sep 2018 | Oct 2018 | 6 | 9.1% | +78.6% | +249.3% |
| Dec 2018 | Jan 2019 | 4 | 14.5% | +78.1% | +256.6% |
| Jul 2025 | Aug 2025 | 2 | 3.5% | N/A | -23.2% |
| Aug 2025 | Ongoing | 38+ | 29.8% | Ongoing | -22.5% |
| Average | 29 | — | +51.1% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CMG below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-05-15, Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (CMG) is trading 26.1% below its 200-week moving average of $44.19. The current price is $32.65.
What is CMG's 200-week moving average price?
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $44.19 as of 2026-05-15. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when CMG drops below its 200-week moving average?
CMG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 8 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +51.1%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 29 weeks on average.
Is CMG a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about CMG as of 2026-05-15: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 34. Free cash flow yield is 2.6%. Return on equity is 49.2%. Price-to-book is 17.4x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does CMG compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 19.4 years, $100 invested in CMG would have grown to $2720, compared to $733 for the S&P 500. That's 18.5% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. CMG has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-05-15