CMCSA
Comcast Corporation Communication Services - Cable Investor Relations →
Comcast Corporation (CMCSA) closed at $23.79 as of 2026-07-17, trading 25.0% below its 200-week moving average of $31.71. This places CMCSA in the extreme value zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -25.7% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 36, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.1x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.11 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2369 weeks of data, CMCSA has crossed below its 200-week moving average 25 times. On average, these episodes lasted 25 weeks. Historically, investors who bought CMCSA at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +29.1%.
With a market cap of $85.0 billion, CMCSA is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 4.7%. Return on equity stands at 20.9%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 1.0x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 14.6% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in CMCSA would have grown to $1731, compared to $3082 for the S&P 500. CMCSA has returned 8.9% annualized vs 10.7% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 15% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: CMCSA vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After CMCSA Crosses Below the Line?
Across 19 historical episodes, buying CMCSA when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +16.5% after 12 months (median +9.0%), compared to +13.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 68% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +41.3% vs +34.6% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment CMCSA crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices CMCSA would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where CMCSA's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-23.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $22.12 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $24.46 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $27.36 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $31.03 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $35.85 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from CMCSA's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
CMCSA has crossed below its 200-week MA 25 times with an average 1-year return of +29.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 1981 | Sep 1981 | 1 | 0.1% | N/A | +21789.6% |
| Feb 1982 | Apr 1982 | 10 | 20.7% | +51.9% | +21508.9% |
| May 1982 | Sep 1982 | 16 | 23.6% | +71.2% | +21508.9% |
| Sep 1982 | Sep 1982 | 1 | 0.0% | +69.5% | +21789.6% |
| Aug 1990 | Dec 1990 | 19 | 30.7% | +21.8% | +3057.3% |
| Jan 1991 | Jan 1991 | 1 | 5.6% | +54.7% | +3039.7% |
| Oct 1992 | Nov 1992 | 2 | 6.1% | +175.6% | +2372.9% |
| Apr 1995 | Apr 1995 | 1 | 1.2% | +22.3% | +1526.1% |
| May 1996 | May 1996 | 1 | 1.6% | -0.3% | +1308.7% |
| Jul 1996 | Jan 1997 | 29 | 18.0% | +27.9% | +1324.4% |
| Feb 1997 | Jun 1997 | 14 | 18.2% | +100.5% | +1228.9% |
| Feb 2002 | Feb 2002 | 3 | 8.5% | -25.1% | +240.2% |
| Mar 2002 | Jan 2004 | 95 | 46.4% | -17.0% | +235.2% |
| Feb 2004 | Dec 2004 | 45 | 17.9% | +5.5% | +284.9% |
| Sep 2005 | Apr 2006 | 31 | 11.3% | +21.1% | +297.0% |
| Oct 2007 | May 2008 | 31 | 23.0% | -37.8% | +261.4% |
| Jun 2008 | Jul 2010 | 110 | 44.8% | -33.0% | +251.7% |
| Aug 2010 | Oct 2010 | 10 | 9.6% | +19.6% | +293.9% |
| May 2018 | Jun 2018 | 2 | 2.1% | +37.4% | +0.6% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 3 | 9.6% | +69.9% | -7.7% |
| May 2020 | May 2020 | 2 | 2.7% | +62.3% | -16.2% |
| Apr 2022 | Jul 2023 | 64 | 33.4% | +7.3% | -26.0% |
| Oct 2023 | Dec 2023 | 7 | 7.1% | +8.3% | -29.0% |
| Feb 2024 | Oct 2024 | 38 | 12.6% | -15.7% | -33.5% |
| Dec 2024 | Ongoing | 84+ | 30.5% | Ongoing | -31.5% |
| Average | 25 | — | +29.1% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CMCSA below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-07-17, Comcast Corporation (CMCSA) is trading 25.0% below its 200-week moving average of $31.71. The current price is $23.79.
What is CMCSA's 200-week moving average price?
Comcast Corporation's 200-week moving average is $31.71 as of 2026-07-17. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when CMCSA drops below its 200-week moving average?
CMCSA has crossed below its 200-week moving average 25 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +29.1%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 25 weeks on average.
Is CMCSA a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about CMCSA as of 2026-07-17: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 36. Free cash flow yield is 4.7%. Return on equity is 20.9%. Price-to-book is 1.0x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does CMCSA compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.6 years, $100 invested in CMCSA would have grown to $1731, compared to $3082 for the S&P 500. That's 8.9% annualized vs 10.7% for the index. CMCSA has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does CMCSA pay a dividend?
Yes. Comcast Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 548.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-17