CMCSA
Comcast Corporation Communication Services - Cable Investor Relations → Deep dive →
Comcast Corporation (CMCSA) closed at $25.20 as of 2026-09-11, trading 20.5% below its 200-week moving average of $31.71. This places CMCSA in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -16.5% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 57, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 0.8x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.03 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2377 weeks of data, CMCSA has crossed below its 200-week moving average 25 times. On average, these episodes lasted 25 weeks. Historically, investors who bought CMCSA at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +29.1%.
With a market cap of $89.4 billion, CMCSA is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 14.2%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 11.5%. The stock trades at 1.0x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 14.6% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in CMCSA would have grown to $1833, compared to $3170 for the S&P 500. CMCSA has returned 9.0% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 15% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: CMCSA vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After CMCSA Crosses Below the Line?
Across 19 historical episodes, buying CMCSA when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +16.5% after 12 months (median +9.0%), compared to +13.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 68% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +41.3% vs +34.6% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment CMCSA crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices CMCSA would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where CMCSA's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-29.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $19.48 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $21.14 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $23.09 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $25.45 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $28.35 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | $0.97 | $1.04 | +7.6% |
| 2026-04-23 | $0.73 | $0.79 | +8.3% |
| 2026-01-29 | $0.76 | $0.84 | +10.8% |
| 2025-10-30 | $1.10 | $1.12 | +1.7% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from CMCSA's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
CMCSA has crossed below its 200-week MA 25 times with an average 1-year return of +29.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 1981 | Sep 1981 | 1 | 0.1% | N/A | +23086.9% |
| Feb 1982 | Apr 1982 | 10 | 20.7% | +51.9% | +22789.6% |
| May 1982 | Sep 1982 | 16 | 23.6% | +71.2% | +22789.6% |
| Sep 1982 | Sep 1982 | 1 | 0.0% | +69.5% | +23086.9% |
| Aug 1990 | Dec 1990 | 19 | 30.7% | +21.8% | +3244.4% |
| Jan 1991 | Jan 1991 | 1 | 5.6% | +54.7% | +3225.8% |
| Oct 1992 | Nov 1992 | 2 | 6.1% | +175.6% | +2519.4% |
| Apr 1995 | Apr 1995 | 1 | 1.2% | +22.3% | +1622.5% |
| May 1996 | May 1996 | 1 | 1.6% | -0.3% | +1392.2% |
| Jul 1996 | Jan 1997 | 29 | 18.0% | +27.9% | +1408.8% |
| Feb 1997 | Jun 1997 | 14 | 18.2% | +100.5% | +1307.7% |
| Feb 2002 | Feb 2002 | 3 | 8.5% | -25.1% | +260.3% |
| Mar 2002 | Jan 2004 | 95 | 46.4% | -17.0% | +255.1% |
| Feb 2004 | Dec 2004 | 45 | 17.9% | +5.5% | +307.7% |
| Sep 2005 | Apr 2006 | 31 | 11.3% | +21.1% | +320.5% |
| Oct 2007 | May 2008 | 31 | 23.0% | -37.8% | +282.8% |
| Jun 2008 | Jul 2010 | 110 | 44.8% | -33.0% | +272.6% |
| Aug 2010 | Oct 2010 | 10 | 9.6% | +19.6% | +317.3% |
| May 2018 | Jun 2018 | 2 | 2.1% | +37.4% | +6.6% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 3 | 9.6% | +69.9% | -2.2% |
| May 2020 | May 2020 | 2 | 2.7% | +62.3% | -11.2% |
| Apr 2022 | Jul 2023 | 64 | 33.4% | +7.3% | -21.6% |
| Oct 2023 | Dec 2023 | 7 | 7.1% | +8.3% | -24.8% |
| Feb 2024 | Oct 2024 | 38 | 12.6% | -15.7% | -29.6% |
| Dec 2024 | Ongoing | 92+ | 30.5% | Ongoing | -27.5% |
| Average | 25 | — | +29.1% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CMCSA below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-09-11, Comcast Corporation (CMCSA) is trading 20.5% below its 200-week moving average of $31.71. The current price is $25.20.
What is CMCSA's 200-week moving average price?
Comcast Corporation's 200-week moving average is $31.71 as of 2026-09-11. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when CMCSA drops below its 200-week moving average?
CMCSA has crossed below its 200-week moving average 25 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +29.1%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 25 weeks on average.
Is CMCSA a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about CMCSA as of 2026-09-11: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 57. Free cash flow yield is 14.2%. Return on equity is 11.5%. Price-to-book is 1.0x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does CMCSA compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.8 years, $100 invested in CMCSA would have grown to $1833, compared to $3170 for the S&P 500. That's 9.0% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. CMCSA has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does CMCSA pay a dividend?
Yes. Comcast Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 524.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-11