CF
CF Industries Holdings Inc. Materials - Fertilizers Investor Relations →
CF Industries Holdings Inc. (CF) closed at $124.90 as of 2026-03-20, trading 54.1% above its 200-week moving average of $81.03. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 60.3% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 88, CF is in overbought territory.
A big spike in selling this week — 3.2x the usual volume, and the price dropped. Sometimes this kind of heavy selling marks the end of a decline. The idea is that the last reluctant holders have finally sold, leaving fewer sellers left to push the price lower.
Over the past 1027 weeks of data, CF has crossed below its 200-week moving average 10 times. On average, these episodes lasted 19 weeks. Historically, investors who bought CF at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +77.8%.
With a market cap of $19.5 billion, CF is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 6.7%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 23.4%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 4.0x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 21.5% over the past three years. CF passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 19.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in CF would have grown to $5901, compared to $731 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 22.9% vs 10.6% for the index — confirming CF as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: CF vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After CF Crosses Below the Line?
Across 10 historical episodes, buying CF when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +74.2% after 12 months (median +69.0%), compared to +17.4% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 89% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +201.1% vs +24.6% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment CF crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
CF has crossed below its 200-week MA 10 times with an average 1-year return of +77.8% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2006 | Aug 2006 | 6 | 12.2% | +361.7% | +6465.8% |
| Sep 2008 | Oct 2008 | 4 | 21.9% | +47.8% | +1498.8% |
| Nov 2008 | Feb 2009 | 15 | 17.8% | +47.1% | +1542.7% |
| May 2010 | Jul 2010 | 10 | 19.1% | +88.8% | +1121.7% |
| Nov 2015 | Dec 2017 | 107 | 49.2% | -30.9% | +280.2% |
| Feb 2018 | Feb 2018 | 1 | 1.9% | +14.4% | +308.4% |
| Mar 2018 | Apr 2018 | 3 | 2.9% | +8.5% | +313.0% |
| Mar 2020 | Nov 2020 | 37 | 38.7% | +84.8% | +421.8% |
| Mar 2025 | Apr 2025 | 3 | 5.9% | N/A | +74.9% |
| Nov 2025 | Jan 2026 | 7 | 4.4% | N/A | +59.9% |
| Average | 19 | — | +77.8% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CF below its 200-week moving average?
No. CF Industries Holdings Inc. (CF) is currently 54.1% above its 200-week moving average of $81.03. It would need to fall to $81.03 to cross below the line.
What is CF's 200-week moving average price?
CF Industries Holdings Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $81.03 as of 2026-03-20. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when CF drops below its 200-week moving average?
CF has crossed below its 200-week moving average 10 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +77.8%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 19 weeks on average.
Is CF a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about CF as of 2026-03-20: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 88 (overbought). Free cash flow yield is 6.7%. Return on equity is 23.4%. Price-to-book is 4.0x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does CF compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 19.8 years, $100 invested in CF would have grown to $5901, compared to $731 for the S&P 500. That's 22.9% annualized vs 10.6% for the index. CF has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does CF pay a dividend?
Yes. CF Industries Holdings Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 160.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-03-20