CAT
Caterpillar Inc. Industrials - Machinery Investor Relations →
Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) closed at $680.88 as of 2026-03-20, trading 106.0% above its 200-week moving average of $330.44. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 111.6% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 61, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.3x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.93 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 3302 weeks of data, CAT has crossed below its 200-week moving average 38 times. On average, these episodes lasted 19 weeks. Historically, investors who bought CAT at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +25.0%.
With a market cap of $318.6 billion, CAT is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 1.8%. Return on equity stands at 43.5%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 14.9x book value.
CAT is a Dividend Aristocrat, having increased its dividend for 25 or more consecutive years. The current yield is 89.00%. The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 9.9% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in CAT would have grown to $21239, compared to $2683 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 17.5% vs 10.4% for the index — confirming CAT as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: CAT vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After CAT Crosses Below the Line?
Across 16 historical episodes, buying CAT when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +43.2% after 12 months (median +66.0%), compared to +9.6% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 75% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +60.5% vs +15.8% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment CAT crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
CAT has crossed below its 200-week MA 38 times with an average 1-year return of +25.0% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1963 | Mar 1963 | 2 | 1.7% | +47.8% | +155553.2% |
| Mar 1963 | Mar 1963 | 1 | 0.6% | +73.5% | +155001.3% |
| Jan 1968 | Apr 1968 | 10 | 6.7% | +22.3% | +60907.0% |
| May 1968 | Aug 1968 | 13 | 8.2% | +38.4% | +59763.1% |
| Nov 1969 | Nov 1969 | 1 | 2.0% | -11.7% | +56695.9% |
| Dec 1969 | Dec 1969 | 1 | 1.3% | +1.8% | +56347.4% |
| Jan 1970 | Mar 1970 | 10 | 11.8% | +11.0% | +59646.3% |
| Apr 1970 | Dec 1970 | 37 | 23.3% | +26.4% | +55832.7% |
| Nov 1971 | Nov 1971 | 2 | 9.4% | +69.6% | +58133.8% |
| Jul 1974 | Feb 1975 | 29 | 27.6% | +23.0% | +41345.7% |
| Mar 1978 | Apr 1978 | 5 | 6.5% | +23.7% | +31518.3% |
| May 1979 | May 1979 | 1 | 0.4% | -18.2% | +28102.1% |
| Jun 1979 | Jun 1979 | 2 | 1.6% | -7.8% | +28037.4% |
| Jul 1979 | Jul 1979 | 3 | 1.9% | -0.2% | +28297.9% |
| Oct 1979 | Jan 1980 | 16 | 10.3% | +5.5% | +27845.1% |
| Feb 1980 | Jul 1980 | 23 | 19.5% | +1.4% | +27718.4% |
| Aug 1980 | Sep 1980 | 3 | 3.2% | +9.9% | +28833.8% |
| Sep 1981 | Dec 1983 | 116 | 36.0% | -23.5% | +27162.0% |
| Feb 1984 | Mar 1984 | 5 | 3.9% | -20.8% | +30930.2% |
| Apr 1984 | Nov 1985 | 83 | 33.5% | -28.8% | +30171.3% |
| Sep 1986 | Dec 1986 | 12 | 7.7% | +88.5% | +34233.5% |
| Jun 1990 | Apr 1992 | 94 | 29.4% | -3.7% | +23810.1% |
| Jun 1992 | Jun 1992 | 1 | 0.4% | +42.9% | +23296.7% |
| Aug 1992 | Sep 1992 | 5 | 7.1% | +64.8% | +23932.7% |
| Sep 1992 | Oct 1992 | 2 | 4.9% | +63.3% | +24053.8% |
| Dec 1999 | Dec 1999 | 2 | 2.2% | -5.9% | +5773.0% |
| Jan 2000 | Dec 2000 | 47 | 33.3% | +3.1% | +5929.1% |
| Jan 2001 | Apr 2001 | 13 | 12.1% | +19.7% | +5732.3% |
| Sep 2001 | Oct 2001 | 2 | 2.6% | -11.5% | +5563.1% |
| Jul 2002 | Nov 2002 | 17 | 19.8% | +63.5% | +5798.4% |
| Dec 2002 | Dec 2002 | 1 | 0.2% | +79.3% | +5283.1% |
| Jan 2003 | Feb 2003 | 4 | 4.2% | +95.9% | +5325.9% |
| Sep 2008 | Jan 2010 | 66 | 62.1% | -0.2% | +1994.6% |
| Jan 2010 | Feb 2010 | 4 | 9.5% | +74.1% | +1762.0% |
| Nov 2013 | Nov 2013 | 1 | 0.7% | +31.9% | +1020.5% |
| Jan 2015 | May 2015 | 18 | 10.7% | -25.1% | +932.0% |
| May 2015 | Jul 2016 | 61 | 28.5% | -12.0% | +943.0% |
| Mar 2020 | May 2020 | 11 | 18.6% | +136.4% | +670.5% |
| Average | 19 | — | +25.0% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CAT below its 200-week moving average?
No. Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) is currently 106.0% above its 200-week moving average of $330.44. It would need to fall to $330.44 to cross below the line.
What is CAT's 200-week moving average price?
Caterpillar Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $330.44 as of 2026-03-20. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when CAT drops below its 200-week moving average?
CAT has crossed below its 200-week moving average 38 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +25.0%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 19 weeks on average.
Is CAT a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about CAT as of 2026-03-20: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 61. Free cash flow yield is 1.8%. Return on equity is 43.5%. Price-to-book is 14.9x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does CAT compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.2 years, $100 invested in CAT would have grown to $21239, compared to $2683 for the S&P 500. That's 17.5% annualized vs 10.4% for the index. CAT has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does CAT pay a dividend?
Yes. Caterpillar Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 89.00%. It is also a Dividend Aristocrat, meaning it has raised its dividend for 25 or more consecutive years.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-03-20