BURL
Burlington Stores Inc. Consumer Discretionary - Retail Investor Relations →
Burlington Stores Inc. (BURL) closed at $239.04 as of 2026-09-11, trading 0.2% below its 200-week moving average of $239.51. This places BURL in the below line zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 11.0% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 33, indicating neutral momentum.
Over the past 14 weeks, down-weeks have had more trading volume than up-weeks (0.53 buyers-vs-sellers ratio). That means when people are active, they're more often selling than buying. Sellers are still more in control than buyers.
Over the past 627 weeks of data, BURL has crossed below its 200-week moving average 4 times. On average, these episodes lasted 26 weeks. Historically, investors who bought BURL at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +8.3%.
With a market cap of $15.0 billion, BURL is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 0.7%. Return on equity stands at 41.4%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 7.5x book value.
Over the past 12.1 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in BURL would have grown to $603, compared to $472 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 16.0% vs 13.7% for the index — confirming BURL as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 0.8% compound annual rate, with 1 consecutive year of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: BURL vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After BURL Crosses Below the Line?
Across 3 historical episodes, buying BURL when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +12.0% after 12 months (median +14.0%), compared to +11.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 67% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +31.3% vs +40.3% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment BURL crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices BURL would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where BURL's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-11-27.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $261.66 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $298.96 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $348.66 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $418.19 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $522.35 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | $2.19 | $2.96 | +35.4% |
| 2026-05-28 | $1.80 | $2.01 | +11.4% |
| 2026-03-05 | $4.75 | $4.89 | +2.9% |
| 2025-11-25 | $1.64 | $1.68 | +2.6% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
the write-ups I read Simply Wall St · Visual company reports and write-ups. Free tier covers five reports a month. referral
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from BURL's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
BURL has crossed below its 200-week MA 4 times with an average 1-year return of +8.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2022 | Jan 2023 | 44 | 48.7% | +14.0% | +26.0% |
| Feb 2023 | Mar 2024 | 53 | 46.3% | -4.8% | +10.6% |
| Apr 2024 | May 2024 | 8 | 16.5% | +15.8% | +19.6% |
| Sep 2026 | Ongoing | 1+ | 0.2% | Ongoing | N/A |
| Average | 26 | — | +8.3% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BURL below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-09-11, Burlington Stores Inc. (BURL) is trading 0.2% below its 200-week moving average of $239.51. The current price is $239.04.
What is BURL's 200-week moving average price?
Burlington Stores Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $239.51 as of 2026-09-11. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when BURL drops below its 200-week moving average?
BURL has crossed below its 200-week moving average 4 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +8.3%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 26 weeks on average.
Is BURL a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about BURL as of 2026-09-11: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 33. Free cash flow yield is 0.7%. Return on equity is 41.4%. Price-to-book is 7.5x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does BURL compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 12.1 years, $100 invested in BURL would have grown to $603, compared to $472 for the S&P 500. That's 16.0% annualized vs 13.7% for the index. BURL has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-11