BP
BP plc Energy - Oil & Gas Investor Relations →
BP plc (BP) closed at $41.90 as of 2026-07-17, trading 30.2% above its 200-week moving average of $32.18. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 22.1% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 41, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 0.9x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.86 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 3319 weeks of data, BP has crossed below its 200-week moving average 49 times. On average, these episodes lasted 14 weeks. Historically, investors who bought BP at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +24.2%.
With a market cap of $107.9 billion, BP is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 9.3%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 5.8%. The stock trades at 7.7x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 15.3% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in BP would have grown to $1660, compared to $3082 for the S&P 500. BP has returned 8.7% annualized vs 10.7% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -26.9% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: BP vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After BP Crosses Below the Line?
Across 32 historical episodes, buying BP when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +14.1% after 12 months (median +21.0%), compared to +8.2% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 59% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +18.8% vs +24.1% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment BP crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices BP would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where BP's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-08-04.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $36.13 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $41.01 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $47.40 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $56.16 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $68.89 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from BP's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
BP has crossed below its 200-week MA 49 times with an average 1-year return of +24.2% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1970 | Feb 1970 | 3 | 6.9% | +35.2% | +25736.9% |
| Apr 1970 | Aug 1970 | 19 | 18.1% | +26.4% | +26153.7% |
| Sep 1970 | Sep 1970 | 1 | 0.8% | +40.0% | +24465.9% |
| Jun 1972 | Aug 1972 | 8 | 16.0% | +44.9% | +21267.2% |
| Jul 1974 | Sep 1974 | 7 | 16.2% | +90.7% | +16171.2% |
| Sep 1974 | Oct 1974 | 1 | 3.2% | +63.0% | +15777.4% |
| Mar 1975 | Mar 1975 | 1 | 1.2% | +39.5% | +14679.2% |
| Jan 1978 | Jan 1978 | 3 | 2.5% | +29.8% | +10029.7% |
| Feb 1978 | Apr 1978 | 8 | 11.8% | +57.1% | +10678.9% |
| May 1978 | Jul 1978 | 11 | 11.6% | +58.3% | +10317.5% |
| Oct 1978 | Oct 1978 | 1 | 4.1% | +120.9% | +9701.9% |
| Jan 1982 | Oct 1982 | 38 | 27.4% | +21.3% | +4088.9% |
| Oct 1982 | Jan 1983 | 12 | 15.6% | +44.7% | +3702.4% |
| Mar 1983 | Mar 1983 | 1 | 2.6% | +26.1% | +3442.8% |
| Dec 1983 | Dec 1983 | 1 | 1.5% | +9.3% | +3094.1% |
| Jun 1984 | Jun 1984 | 1 | 0.5% | +23.2% | +2986.0% |
| Jul 1986 | Aug 1986 | 1 | 1.1% | +97.2% | +2637.0% |
| Feb 1992 | May 1992 | 14 | 7.4% | -13.3% | +1258.7% |
| Jun 1992 | Apr 1993 | 42 | 25.4% | +3.5% | +1237.0% |
| Apr 1993 | Apr 1993 | 1 | 1.1% | +28.9% | +1225.8% |
| Jun 1993 | Aug 1993 | 9 | 7.7% | +37.9% | +1229.6% |
| Sep 1993 | Sep 1993 | 1 | 0.8% | +46.1% | +1200.3% |
| Sep 2001 | Sep 2001 | 1 | 6.3% | -4.8% | +217.8% |
| Nov 2001 | Feb 2002 | 13 | 7.5% | -7.2% | +217.9% |
| Jun 2002 | Jun 2002 | 2 | 1.8% | -3.5% | +190.6% |
| Jul 2002 | Dec 2003 | 74 | 24.6% | -9.6% | +194.3% |
| Mar 2008 | Mar 2008 | 2 | 2.3% | -29.9% | +86.9% |
| Jul 2008 | Oct 2009 | 65 | 39.6% | -11.8% | +79.8% |
| Feb 2010 | Feb 2010 | 1 | 2.7% | -12.1% | +88.2% |
| Feb 2010 | Mar 2010 | 1 | 1.0% | -8.8% | +85.3% |
| Apr 2010 | Jan 2012 | 92 | 48.9% | -10.7% | +89.1% |
| Apr 2012 | Aug 2012 | 18 | 14.0% | +0.5% | +116.6% |
| Aug 2012 | Sep 2012 | 2 | 0.3% | +3.3% | +118.2% |
| Oct 2012 | Dec 2012 | 13 | 4.0% | +5.5% | +117.8% |
| Feb 2013 | Mar 2013 | 3 | 3.4% | +31.8% | +121.9% |
| Apr 2013 | Apr 2013 | 3 | 1.7% | +22.6% | +115.6% |
| Jul 2013 | Jul 2013 | 1 | 0.0% | +35.5% | +114.8% |
| Nov 2014 | Feb 2015 | 10 | 9.6% | -5.8% | +108.6% |
| Mar 2015 | Mar 2015 | 1 | 5.0% | -13.1% | +114.9% |
| Jul 2015 | Oct 2016 | 64 | 24.1% | +0.5% | +103.7% |
| Oct 2016 | Nov 2016 | 5 | 6.3% | +17.4% | +104.0% |
| Feb 2017 | Apr 2017 | 8 | 3.7% | +21.0% | +107.1% |
| Apr 2017 | May 2017 | 2 | 2.1% | +36.3% | +106.7% |
| Feb 2020 | Oct 2021 | 85 | 52.0% | -16.1% | +87.1% |
| Oct 2021 | Jan 2022 | 10 | 10.3% | +20.4% | +84.5% |
| Feb 2022 | Mar 2022 | 2 | 1.5% | +49.9% | +85.5% |
| Jul 2022 | Jul 2022 | 2 | 3.4% | +39.1% | +92.8% |
| Oct 2024 | Dec 2024 | 9 | 3.4% | +27.7% | +58.2% |
| Mar 2025 | Jun 2025 | 10 | 11.4% | +75.8% | +58.1% |
| Average | 14 | — | +24.2% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BP below its 200-week moving average?
No. BP plc (BP) is currently 30.2% above its 200-week moving average of $32.18. It would need to fall to $32.18 to cross below the line.
What is BP's 200-week moving average price?
BP plc's 200-week moving average is $32.18 as of 2026-07-17. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when BP drops below its 200-week moving average?
BP has crossed below its 200-week moving average 49 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +24.2%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 14 weeks on average.
Is BP a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about BP as of 2026-07-17: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 41. Free cash flow yield is 9.3%. Return on equity is 5.8%. Price-to-book is 7.7x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does BP compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.6 years, $100 invested in BP would have grown to $1660, compared to $3082 for the S&P 500. That's 8.7% annualized vs 10.7% for the index. BP has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does BP pay a dividend?
Yes. BP plc currently pays a dividend yield of 486.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-17