BP
BP plc Energy - Oil & Gas Investor Relations →
BP plc (BP) closed at $44.78 as of 2026-03-20, trading 44.6% above its 200-week moving average of $30.96. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 38.2% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 77, BP is in overbought territory.
A big jump in activity this week — 2.6x the usual volume, and the price went up. Significantly more people than usual decided to buy. This kind of surge, especially on a stock already below its 200-week average, can be an early sign that sentiment is shifting.
Over the past 3302 weeks of data, BP has crossed below its 200-week moving average 48 times. On average, these episodes lasted 14 weeks. Historically, investors who bought BP at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +23.3%.
With a market cap of $114.7 billion, BP is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 5.0%. Return on equity stands at 1.7%. The stock trades at 13.0x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 15.3% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in BP would have grown to $1754, compared to $2683 for the S&P 500. BP has returned 9.0% annualized vs 10.4% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -26.9% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: BP vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After BP Crosses Below the Line?
Across 31 historical episodes, buying BP when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +14.4% after 12 months (median +15.0%), compared to +8.2% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 61% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +19.1% vs +24.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment BP crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
BP has crossed below its 200-week MA 48 times with an average 1-year return of +23.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1970 | Feb 1970 | 3 | 6.9% | +35.2% | +27200.5% |
| Apr 1970 | Aug 1970 | 19 | 18.0% | +26.4% | +27640.9% |
| Sep 1970 | Sep 1970 | 1 | 0.7% | +40.0% | +25857.5% |
| Jun 1972 | Aug 1972 | 8 | 15.9% | +44.9% | +22477.6% |
| Jul 1974 | Sep 1974 | 7 | 16.1% | +90.7% | +17092.9% |
| Sep 1974 | Oct 1974 | 1 | 3.2% | +63.0% | +16676.8% |
| Mar 1975 | Mar 1975 | 1 | 1.1% | +39.5% | +15516.4% |
| Jan 1978 | Jan 1978 | 3 | 2.4% | +29.8% | +10603.5% |
| Feb 1978 | Apr 1978 | 8 | 11.8% | +57.1% | +11289.5% |
| May 1978 | Jul 1978 | 11 | 11.6% | +58.3% | +10907.6% |
| Oct 1978 | Oct 1978 | 1 | 4.0% | +120.9% | +10257.2% |
| Jan 1982 | Oct 1982 | 38 | 27.3% | +21.3% | +4326.2% |
| Oct 1982 | Jan 1983 | 12 | 15.5% | +44.7% | +3917.8% |
| Mar 1983 | Mar 1983 | 1 | 2.6% | +26.1% | +3643.5% |
| Dec 1983 | Dec 1983 | 1 | 1.4% | +9.3% | +3275.1% |
| Jun 1984 | Jun 1984 | 1 | 0.4% | +23.2% | +3160.8% |
| Jul 1986 | Aug 1986 | 1 | 1.0% | +97.2% | +2792.0% |
| Feb 1992 | May 1992 | 14 | 7.3% | -13.3% | +1335.6% |
| Jun 1992 | Apr 1993 | 42 | 25.4% | +3.5% | +1312.7% |
| Apr 1993 | Apr 1993 | 1 | 0.9% | +28.9% | +1300.9% |
| Jun 1993 | Aug 1993 | 9 | 7.6% | +37.9% | +1304.9% |
| Sep 1993 | Sep 1993 | 1 | 0.7% | +46.1% | +1274.0% |
| Sep 2001 | Sep 2001 | 1 | 6.2% | -4.8% | +235.8% |
| Nov 2001 | Feb 2002 | 13 | 7.9% | -7.5% | +238.4% |
| Jun 2002 | Jun 2002 | 2 | 1.7% | -3.5% | +207.1% |
| Jul 2002 | Dec 2003 | 74 | 24.5% | -9.6% | +211.0% |
| Mar 2008 | Mar 2008 | 2 | 2.3% | -29.9% | +97.5% |
| Jul 2008 | Oct 2009 | 65 | 39.6% | -11.8% | +90.0% |
| Feb 2010 | Mar 2010 | 4 | 2.6% | -12.1% | +98.9% |
| Apr 2010 | Jan 2012 | 92 | 48.9% | -10.7% | +99.8% |
| Apr 2012 | Aug 2012 | 19 | 13.9% | +0.5% | +128.9% |
| Sep 2012 | Sep 2012 | 1 | 0.2% | +4.9% | +131.3% |
| Oct 2012 | Nov 2012 | 6 | 3.9% | +6.0% | +131.8% |
| Dec 2012 | Dec 2012 | 4 | 1.6% | +19.8% | +133.2% |
| Feb 2013 | Mar 2013 | 5 | 3.3% | +22.3% | +128.3% |
| Apr 2013 | Apr 2013 | 3 | 1.7% | +22.6% | +127.8% |
| Nov 2014 | Feb 2015 | 10 | 9.5% | -5.8% | +120.4% |
| Mar 2015 | Mar 2015 | 1 | 4.9% | -13.1% | +127.1% |
| Jul 2015 | Oct 2016 | 64 | 24.0% | +0.5% | +115.3% |
| Oct 2016 | Nov 2016 | 5 | 7.1% | +17.4% | +115.6% |
| Feb 2017 | Apr 2017 | 8 | 5.3% | +21.0% | +118.9% |
| Apr 2017 | May 2017 | 2 | 1.9% | +36.3% | +118.4% |
| Feb 2020 | Oct 2021 | 85 | 52.0% | -16.1% | +97.7% |
| Oct 2021 | Jan 2022 | 10 | 10.2% | +20.4% | +94.9% |
| Feb 2022 | Mar 2022 | 2 | 1.4% | +49.9% | +96.0% |
| Jul 2022 | Jul 2022 | 1 | 3.3% | +39.1% | +103.7% |
| Oct 2024 | Dec 2024 | 9 | 3.4% | +27.7% | +67.1% |
| Mar 2025 | Jun 2025 | 10 | 11.3% | N/A | +67.1% |
| Average | 14 | — | +23.3% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BP below its 200-week moving average?
No. BP plc (BP) is currently 44.6% above its 200-week moving average of $30.96. It would need to fall to $30.96 to cross below the line.
What is BP's 200-week moving average price?
BP plc's 200-week moving average is $30.96 as of 2026-03-20. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when BP drops below its 200-week moving average?
BP has crossed below its 200-week moving average 48 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +23.3%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 14 weeks on average.
Is BP a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about BP as of 2026-03-20: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 77 (overbought). Free cash flow yield is 5.0%. Return on equity is 1.7%. Price-to-book is 13.0x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does BP compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.2 years, $100 invested in BP would have grown to $1754, compared to $2683 for the S&P 500. That's 9.0% annualized vs 10.4% for the index. BP has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does BP pay a dividend?
Yes. BP plc currently pays a dividend yield of 446.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-03-20