BP
BP plc Energy - Oil & Gas Investor Relations →
BP plc (BP) closed at $44.35 as of 2026-05-15, trading 41.0% above its 200-week moving average of $31.45. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 36.7% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 66, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading activity has gone quiet — just 0.5x of its usual 14-week average. But the buying that is happening outweighs the selling (1.23 buyers-vs-sellers ratio). When volume dries up but buyers are still showing up more than sellers, it can mean the worst of the selling is over and the stock is quietly building a floor.
Over the past 3310 weeks of data, BP has crossed below its 200-week moving average 48 times. On average, these episodes lasted 14 weeks. Historically, investors who bought BP at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +24.4%.
With a market cap of $114.2 billion, BP is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 8.8%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 5.8%. The stock trades at 8.2x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 15.3% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.4 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in BP would have grown to $1757, compared to $3058 for the S&P 500. BP has returned 9.0% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -26.9% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: BP vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After BP Crosses Below the Line?
Across 31 historical episodes, buying BP when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +14.6% after 12 months (median +15.0%), compared to +8.2% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 61% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +19.1% vs +24.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment BP crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices BP would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where BP's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $39.51 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $44.32 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $50.47 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $58.59 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $69.83 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Historical Touches
BP has crossed below its 200-week MA 48 times with an average 1-year return of +24.4% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1970 | Feb 1970 | 3 | 6.9% | +35.2% | +27247.7% |
| Apr 1970 | Aug 1970 | 19 | 18.0% | +26.4% | +27688.8% |
| Sep 1970 | Sep 1970 | 1 | 0.7% | +40.0% | +25902.3% |
| Jun 1972 | Aug 1972 | 8 | 15.9% | +44.9% | +22516.6% |
| Jul 1974 | Sep 1974 | 7 | 16.1% | +90.7% | +17122.6% |
| Sep 1974 | Oct 1974 | 1 | 3.2% | +63.0% | +16705.8% |
| Mar 1975 | Mar 1975 | 1 | 1.1% | +39.5% | +15543.4% |
| Jan 1978 | Jan 1978 | 3 | 2.4% | +29.8% | +10622.0% |
| Feb 1978 | Apr 1978 | 8 | 11.8% | +57.1% | +11309.1% |
| May 1978 | Jul 1978 | 11 | 11.6% | +58.3% | +10926.6% |
| Oct 1978 | Oct 1978 | 1 | 4.0% | +120.9% | +10275.1% |
| Jan 1982 | Oct 1982 | 38 | 27.3% | +21.3% | +4333.9% |
| Oct 1982 | Jan 1983 | 12 | 15.5% | +44.7% | +3924.7% |
| Mar 1983 | Mar 1983 | 1 | 2.6% | +26.1% | +3649.9% |
| Dec 1983 | Dec 1983 | 1 | 1.4% | +9.3% | +3280.9% |
| Jun 1984 | Jun 1984 | 1 | 0.4% | +23.2% | +3166.4% |
| Jul 1986 | Aug 1986 | 1 | 1.0% | +97.2% | +2797.0% |
| Feb 1992 | May 1992 | 14 | 7.3% | -13.3% | +1338.1% |
| Jun 1992 | Apr 1993 | 42 | 25.4% | +3.5% | +1315.2% |
| Apr 1993 | Apr 1993 | 1 | 0.9% | +28.9% | +1303.3% |
| Jun 1993 | Aug 1993 | 9 | 7.6% | +37.9% | +1307.3% |
| Sep 1993 | Sep 1993 | 1 | 0.7% | +46.1% | +1276.4% |
| Sep 2001 | Sep 2001 | 1 | 6.2% | -4.8% | +236.3% |
| Nov 2001 | Feb 2002 | 13 | 7.9% | -7.5% | +239.0% |
| Jun 2002 | Jun 2002 | 2 | 1.7% | -3.5% | +207.6% |
| Jul 2002 | Dec 2003 | 74 | 24.5% | -9.6% | +211.5% |
| Mar 2008 | Mar 2008 | 2 | 2.3% | -29.9% | +97.9% |
| Jul 2008 | Oct 2009 | 65 | 39.6% | -11.8% | +90.3% |
| Feb 2010 | Mar 2010 | 4 | 2.6% | -12.1% | +99.3% |
| Apr 2010 | Jan 2012 | 92 | 48.9% | -10.7% | +100.1% |
| Apr 2012 | Aug 2012 | 19 | 13.9% | +0.5% | +129.3% |
| Sep 2012 | Sep 2012 | 1 | 0.2% | +4.9% | +131.7% |
| Oct 2012 | Nov 2012 | 6 | 3.9% | +6.0% | +132.2% |
| Dec 2012 | Dec 2012 | 4 | 1.6% | +19.8% | +133.6% |
| Feb 2013 | Mar 2013 | 5 | 3.3% | +22.3% | +128.7% |
| Apr 2013 | Apr 2013 | 3 | 1.7% | +22.6% | +128.2% |
| Nov 2014 | Feb 2015 | 10 | 9.5% | -5.8% | +120.8% |
| Mar 2015 | Mar 2015 | 1 | 4.9% | -13.1% | +127.5% |
| Jul 2015 | Oct 2016 | 64 | 24.0% | +0.5% | +115.6% |
| Oct 2016 | Nov 2016 | 5 | 7.1% | +17.4% | +116.0% |
| Feb 2017 | Apr 2017 | 8 | 5.3% | +21.0% | +119.2% |
| Apr 2017 | May 2017 | 2 | 1.9% | +36.3% | +118.8% |
| Feb 2020 | Oct 2021 | 85 | 52.0% | -16.1% | +98.0% |
| Oct 2021 | Jan 2022 | 10 | 10.2% | +20.4% | +95.2% |
| Feb 2022 | Mar 2022 | 2 | 1.4% | +49.9% | +96.3% |
| Jul 2022 | Jul 2022 | 1 | 3.3% | +39.1% | +104.0% |
| Oct 2024 | Dec 2024 | 9 | 3.4% | +27.7% | +67.4% |
| Mar 2025 | Jun 2025 | 10 | 11.3% | +75.8% | +67.4% |
| Average | 14 | — | +24.4% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BP below its 200-week moving average?
No. BP plc (BP) is currently 41.0% above its 200-week moving average of $31.45. It would need to fall to $31.45 to cross below the line.
What is BP's 200-week moving average price?
BP plc's 200-week moving average is $31.45 as of 2026-05-15. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when BP drops below its 200-week moving average?
BP has crossed below its 200-week moving average 48 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +24.4%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 14 weeks on average.
Is BP a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about BP as of 2026-05-15: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 66. Free cash flow yield is 8.8%. Return on equity is 5.8%. Price-to-book is 8.2x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does BP compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.4 years, $100 invested in BP would have grown to $1757, compared to $3058 for the S&P 500. That's 9.0% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. BP has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does BP pay a dividend?
Yes. BP plc currently pays a dividend yield of 450.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-05-15