BKNG
Booking Holdings Inc. Consumer Discretionary - Travel Investor Relations →
Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG) closed at $181.68 as of 2026-07-17, trading 18.1% above its 200-week moving average of $153.83. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 16.4% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 54, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.0x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.09 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1376 weeks of data, BKNG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 12 times. On average, these episodes lasted 26 weeks. Historically, investors who bought BKNG at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +36.9%.
With a market cap of $140.8 billion, BKNG is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 5.0%, which is healthy. The stock trades at -16.2x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 15.8% over the past three years.
Over the past 26.4 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in BKNG would have grown to $966, compared to $787 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 9.0% vs 8.1% for the index — confirming BKNG as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 13.7% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: BKNG vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After BKNG Crosses Below the Line?
Across 12 historical episodes, buying BKNG when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +37.0% after 12 months (median +44.0%), compared to +14.2% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 67% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +120.9% vs +30.8% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment BKNG crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices BKNG would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where BKNG's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-29.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $130.23 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $142.58 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $157.52 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $175.95 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $199.27 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from BKNG's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
BKNG has crossed below its 200-week MA 12 times with an average 1-year return of +36.9% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2000 | Jun 2004 | 217 | 97.8% | -94.7% | +1220.4% |
| Jul 2004 | Nov 2004 | 16 | 19.5% | +6.4% | +20244.2% |
| Dec 2004 | Dec 2004 | 1 | 0.6% | +2.2% | +20032.3% |
| Jan 2005 | Mar 2005 | 9 | 9.0% | -7.4% | +20076.1% |
| Aug 2005 | Oct 2005 | 11 | 13.2% | +52.0% | +21374.5% |
| Oct 2008 | Nov 2008 | 4 | 7.3% | +241.0% | +8828.7% |
| May 2019 | Jun 2019 | 1 | 0.6% | -1.0% | +180.1% |
| Feb 2020 | Aug 2020 | 26 | 34.6% | +37.3% | +173.6% |
| Sep 2020 | Nov 2020 | 9 | 11.6% | +29.2% | +160.0% |
| Jun 2022 | Aug 2022 | 8 | 14.7% | +38.5% | +143.3% |
| Aug 2022 | Nov 2022 | 14 | 17.6% | +59.2% | +142.7% |
| Dec 2022 | Dec 2022 | 2 | 3.1% | +79.5% | +139.3% |
| Average | 26 | — | +36.9% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BKNG below its 200-week moving average?
No. Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG) is currently 18.1% above its 200-week moving average of $153.83. It would need to fall to $153.83 to cross below the line.
What is BKNG's 200-week moving average price?
Booking Holdings Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $153.83 as of 2026-07-17. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when BKNG drops below its 200-week moving average?
BKNG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 12 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +36.9%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 26 weeks on average.
Is BKNG a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about BKNG as of 2026-07-17: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 54. Free cash flow yield is 5.0%. Price-to-book is -16.2x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does BKNG compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 26.4 years, $100 invested in BKNG would have grown to $966, compared to $787 for the S&P 500. That's 9.0% annualized vs 8.1% for the index. BKNG has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does BKNG pay a dividend?
Yes. Booking Holdings Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 87.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-17