BABA
Alibaba Group Holding Limited Consumer Discretionary - E-Commerce Investor Relations →
Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA) closed at $132.59 as of 2026-05-15, trading 31.8% above its 200-week moving average of $100.63. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 39.4% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 34, indicating neutral momentum.
A big spike in selling this week — 2.2x the usual volume, and the price dropped. Sometimes this kind of heavy selling marks the end of a decline. The idea is that the last reluctant holders have finally sold, leaving fewer sellers left to push the price lower.
Over the past 560 weeks of data, BABA has crossed below its 200-week moving average 2 times. On average, these episodes lasted 116 weeks. The average one-year return after crossing below was -9.2%, suggesting these dips have not historically been reliable buying opportunities for this stock.
With a market cap of $318.1 billion, BABA is a large-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at 9.2%. The stock trades at 2.0x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 11.1% over the past three years.
Over the past 10.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in BABA would have grown to $218, compared to $447 for the S&P 500. BABA has returned 7.5% annualized vs 14.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -4.6% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: BABA vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After BABA Crosses Below the Line?
Across 2 historical episodes, buying BABA when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +0.5% after 12 months (median +55.0%), compared to +3.5% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 50% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +59.0% vs +19.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment BABA crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices BABA would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where BABA's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (last report: 2025-12-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $73.30 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $88.96 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $113.12 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $155.30 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $247.61 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Historical Touches
BABA has crossed below its 200-week MA 2 times with an average 1-year return of +-9.2% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2015 | Aug 2016 | 49 | 33.0% | +35.7% | +99.2% |
| Jul 2021 | Feb 2025 | 184 | 64.9% | -54.2% | -28.5% |
| Average | 116 | — | +-9.2% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BABA below its 200-week moving average?
No. Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA) is currently 31.8% above its 200-week moving average of $100.63. It would need to fall to $100.63 to cross below the line.
What is BABA's 200-week moving average price?
Alibaba Group Holding Limited's 200-week moving average is $100.63 as of 2026-05-15. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when BABA drops below its 200-week moving average?
BABA has crossed below its 200-week moving average 2 times in our data. The average one-year return after these crossings was -9.2%, meaning the dips were not reliable buying signals for this particular stock. These episodes lasted 116 weeks on average.
Is BABA a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about BABA as of 2026-05-15: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 34. Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is 9.2%. Price-to-book is 2.0x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does BABA compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 10.8 years, $100 invested in BABA would have grown to $218, compared to $447 for the S&P 500. That's 7.5% annualized vs 14.8% for the index. BABA has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does BABA pay a dividend?
Yes. Alibaba Group Holding Limited currently pays a dividend yield of 79.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-05-15