AZN

AstraZeneca PLC Healthcare - Pharmaceuticals Investor Relations →

NO
27.4% ABOVE
↓ Approaching Was 28.6% last week
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%+
Buy Threshold $142.51
14-Week RSI 45
Rel. Volume (14w) This week's trading vs. the 14-week average 0.9x
Buyers vs. Sellers (14w) Are up-weeks or down-weeks getting more volume? 1.01

AstraZeneca PLC (AZN) closed at $181.58 as of 2026-05-15, trading 27.4% above its 200-week moving average of $142.51. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 28.6% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 45, indicating neutral momentum.

Trading volume is running at 0.9x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.01 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.

Over the past 1674 weeks of data, AZN has crossed below its 200-week moving average 21 times. On average, these episodes lasted 9 weeks. Historically, investors who bought AZN at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +21.1%.

With a market cap of $281.6 billion, AZN is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 2.3%. Return on equity stands at 23.5%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 5.9x book value.

Over the past 32.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in AZN would have grown to $5030, compared to $2890 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 13.0% vs 11.0% for the index — confirming AZN as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.

Free cash flow has been growing at a 6.2% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.

Business Health

Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.

Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)

Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy

Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)

ROIC Return on invested capital (%)

FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal

Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)

Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)

Growth of $100: AZN vs S&P 500

Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.

What Happens After AZN Crosses Below the Line?

Across 21 historical episodes, buying AZN when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +20.8% after 12 months (median +18.0%), compared to +7.2% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 95% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +41.1% vs +21.1% for the index.

Each line shows $100 invested at the moment AZN crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.

Bean Score Experimental

The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices AZN would reach each dislocation threshold.

Current Bean Score +1.82σ
Current FCF Yield 2.75%
Baseline Yield 2.46%
Historical σ 0.20pp

Dislocation Price Levels

Prices where AZN's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (last report: 2026-03-31).

LevelσPriceSignal
Deep Value+2σ$179.18Unusually cheap — potential buy zone
Value+1σ$193.18Cheap vs. own history
Fair Value+0σ$209.56Historical mean behavior
Expensive-1σ$228.98Expensive vs. own history
Deep Expensive-2σ$252.35Unusually expensive — potential trim zone
Data depth: 2 quarterly baselines, 19 price observations — Limited history (4+ quarters preferred for reliability)

Signal Accuracy Collecting Data

The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"

0 / 13 weeks minimum

Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.

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Historical Touches

AZN has crossed below its 200-week MA 21 times with an average 1-year return of +21.1% after recovery.

Crossed BelowRecoveredWeeksMax Depth1-Year ReturnReturn Since Touch
Apr 1994May 199432.9%+50.6%+5032.9%
May 1994Jun 199422.5%+49.3%+4929.9%
Feb 2000Mar 200036.2%+31.5%+1243.2%
Jun 2002May 20035130.7%+9.4%+917.6%
Jun 2003Jun 200310.6%+14.3%+919.1%
Jul 2003Sep 200376.7%+10.8%+954.2%
Sep 2004Nov 200479.0%+17.4%+871.5%
Nov 2004Feb 20051516.0%+17.4%+931.1%
Mar 2005Apr 200523.2%+33.4%+902.4%
Nov 2007Nov 200733.9%-0.7%+732.4%
Dec 2007Jun 20082919.9%-10.0%+724.3%
Jul 2008Jul 200810.1%+4.5%+699.0%
Sep 2008Jun 20093930.4%+5.2%+690.9%
Jun 2009Jul 200922.5%+14.4%+696.4%
Sep 2009Oct 200910.6%+22.9%+678.7%
Feb 2010Feb 201012.7%+16.2%+689.4%
May 2010May 201042.9%+29.1%+694.2%
May 2012Jun 201211.3%+35.7%+630.5%
Jun 2016Jun 201631.9%+27.9%+332.1%
Oct 2016Feb 20171711.0%+22.8%+317.0%
Aug 2017Aug 201732.7%+41.4%+297.0%
Average9+21.1%

Frequently Asked Questions

Is AZN below its 200-week moving average?

No. AstraZeneca PLC (AZN) is currently 27.4% above its 200-week moving average of $142.51. It would need to fall to $142.51 to cross below the line.

What is AZN's 200-week moving average price?

AstraZeneca PLC's 200-week moving average is $142.51 as of 2026-05-15. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.

What happens when AZN drops below its 200-week moving average?

AZN has crossed below its 200-week moving average 21 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +21.1%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 9 weeks on average.

Is AZN a good value right now?

Here's what our data says about AZN as of 2026-05-15: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 45. Free cash flow yield is 2.3%. Return on equity is 23.5%. Price-to-book is 5.9x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.

How does AZN compare to the S&P 500?

Over the past 32.2 years, $100 invested in AZN would have grown to $5030, compared to $2890 for the S&P 500. That's 13.0% annualized vs 11.0% for the index. AZN has outperformed the broader market over this period.

Does AZN pay a dividend?

Yes. AstraZeneca PLC currently pays a dividend yield of 174.00%.

Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Data as of week of 2026-05-15