AXP
American Express Company Financial Services - Credit Cards Investor Relations →
American Express Company (AXP) closed at $313.48 as of 2026-05-15, trading 33.8% above its 200-week moving average of $234.32. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 35.4% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 36, indicating neutral momentum.
Over the past 14 weeks, down-weeks have had more trading volume than up-weeks (0.68 buyers-vs-sellers ratio). That means when people are active, they're more often selling than buying. Sellers are still more in control than buyers.
Over the past 2767 weeks of data, AXP has crossed below its 200-week moving average 34 times. On average, these episodes lasted 22 weeks. Historically, investors who bought AXP at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +21.6%.
With a market cap of $213.9 billion, AXP is a large-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 34.4%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 6.3x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 7.7% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.4 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in AXP would have grown to $8543, compared to $3058 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 14.2% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming AXP as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -5.9% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: AXP vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After AXP Crosses Below the Line?
Across 17 historical episodes, buying AXP when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +37.4% after 12 months (median +36.0%), compared to +18.2% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 81% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +50.9% vs +20.4% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment AXP crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices AXP would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where AXP's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $231.40 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $253.81 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $281.03 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $314.79 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $357.77 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Historical Touches
AXP has crossed below its 200-week MA 34 times with an average 1-year return of +21.6% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1973 | Jul 1973 | 10 | 17.5% | -32.3% | +27512.7% |
| Aug 1973 | Sep 1973 | 3 | 2.8% | -54.3% | +25093.7% |
| Nov 1973 | Nov 1976 | 159 | 64.7% | -47.0% | +27067.3% |
| Dec 1976 | May 1977 | 21 | 10.9% | -3.8% | +37934.3% |
| May 1977 | Jun 1977 | 3 | 5.6% | +6.3% | +40220.9% |
| Jan 1978 | Apr 1978 | 14 | 7.1% | -4.1% | +41926.8% |
| Sep 1978 | May 1979 | 36 | 16.8% | +3.5% | +39822.0% |
| Jul 1979 | Jul 1979 | 1 | 0.3% | +13.8% | +39789.9% |
| Oct 1979 | Apr 1980 | 29 | 19.9% | +21.4% | +40872.2% |
| Jul 1984 | Jul 1984 | 1 | 0.5% | +84.8% | +20181.6% |
| Oct 1987 | Nov 1987 | 1 | 0.0% | +19.5% | +9886.5% |
| Nov 1987 | Jan 1988 | 8 | 11.3% | +16.9% | +9938.5% |
| Mar 1988 | May 1988 | 10 | 7.0% | +26.1% | +9571.0% |
| Nov 1988 | Nov 1988 | 3 | 0.8% | +34.8% | +8691.8% |
| Dec 1988 | Jan 1989 | 1 | 0.2% | +34.5% | +8609.2% |
| Feb 1990 | May 1990 | 13 | 11.7% | -3.7% | +7634.5% |
| Jul 1990 | Mar 1991 | 32 | 34.4% | -3.4% | +7850.8% |
| Apr 1991 | Dec 1992 | 86 | 29.0% | -9.6% | +8094.4% |
| Jan 1993 | Feb 1993 | 1 | 3.4% | +44.9% | +8443.4% |
| Mar 2001 | Apr 2001 | 5 | 8.9% | +11.4% | +1228.5% |
| Jun 2001 | May 2002 | 48 | 38.7% | -6.8% | +1199.8% |
| Jun 2002 | Jun 2003 | 52 | 33.4% | +11.3% | +1180.9% |
| Dec 2007 | Mar 2010 | 118 | 78.2% | -64.2% | +720.4% |
| May 2010 | Jun 2010 | 6 | 6.1% | +25.8% | +867.3% |
| Jun 2010 | Jul 2010 | 1 | 3.3% | +35.1% | +896.2% |
| Oct 2010 | Oct 2010 | 3 | 4.5% | +16.2% | +929.1% |
| Nov 2015 | Dec 2016 | 56 | 28.3% | +0.9% | +411.1% |
| Dec 2016 | Jan 2017 | 1 | 0.7% | +36.2% | +381.8% |
| Mar 2020 | May 2020 | 10 | 22.0% | +93.2% | +358.8% |
| Jun 2020 | Aug 2020 | 6 | 3.0% | +84.2% | +262.0% |
| Aug 2020 | Aug 2020 | 1 | 0.7% | +68.4% | +250.1% |
| Sep 2020 | Sep 2020 | 1 | 1.5% | +85.0% | +249.7% |
| Oct 2020 | Nov 2020 | 2 | 7.0% | +92.7% | +267.4% |
| Oct 2023 | Oct 2023 | 2 | 0.3% | +97.9% | +127.7% |
| Average | 22 | — | +21.6% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AXP below its 200-week moving average?
No. American Express Company (AXP) is currently 33.8% above its 200-week moving average of $234.32. It would need to fall to $234.32 to cross below the line.
What is AXP's 200-week moving average price?
American Express Company's 200-week moving average is $234.32 as of 2026-05-15. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when AXP drops below its 200-week moving average?
AXP has crossed below its 200-week moving average 34 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +21.6%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 22 weeks on average.
Is AXP a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about AXP as of 2026-05-15: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 36. Return on equity is 34.4%. Price-to-book is 6.3x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does AXP compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.4 years, $100 invested in AXP would have grown to $8543, compared to $3058 for the S&P 500. That's 14.2% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. AXP has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does AXP pay a dividend?
Yes. American Express Company currently pays a dividend yield of 121.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-05-15