AR
Antero Resources Corporation Energy - Natural Gas E&P Investor Relations →
Antero Resources Corporation (AR) closed at $38.24 as of 2026-05-15, trading 22.0% above its 200-week moving average of $31.34. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 14.8% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 57, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 0.9x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.09 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 609 weeks of data, AR has crossed below its 200-week moving average 1 time. On average, these episodes lasted 346 weeks. The average one-year return after crossing below was -59.3%, suggesting these dips have not historically been reliable buying opportunities for this stock.
With a market cap of $11.8 billion, AR is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 5.4%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 12.8%. The stock trades at 1.5x book value.
Share count has increased 3.8% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 11.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in AR would have grown to $73, compared to $458 for the S&P 500. AR has returned -2.6% annualized vs 13.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -24.5% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: AR vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After AR Crosses Below the Line?
Across 1 historical episodes, buying AR when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -58.0% after 12 months (median -58.0%), compared to -1.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. After 24 months, the average return was -48.0% vs +14.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment AR crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices AR would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where AR's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $34.36 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $37.49 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $41.25 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $45.84 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $51.58 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Historical Touches
AR has crossed below its 200-week MA 1 time with an average 1-year return of +-59.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2014 | May 2021 | 346 | 95.1% | -59.3% | -34.0% |
| Average | 346 | — | +-59.3% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AR below its 200-week moving average?
No. Antero Resources Corporation (AR) is currently 22.0% above its 200-week moving average of $31.34. It would need to fall to $31.34 to cross below the line.
What is AR's 200-week moving average price?
Antero Resources Corporation's 200-week moving average is $31.34 as of 2026-05-15. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when AR drops below its 200-week moving average?
AR has crossed below its 200-week moving average 1 time in our data. The average one-year return after these crossings was -59.3%, meaning the dips were not reliable buying signals for this particular stock. These episodes lasted 346 weeks on average.
Is AR a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about AR as of 2026-05-15: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 57. Free cash flow yield is 5.4%. Return on equity is 12.8%. Price-to-book is 1.5x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does AR compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 11.8 years, $100 invested in AR would have grown to $73, compared to $458 for the S&P 500. That's -2.6% annualized vs 13.8% for the index. AR has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-05-15