AMGN
Amgen Inc. Healthcare - Biotechnology Investor Relations →
Amgen Inc. (AMGN) closed at $366.29 as of 2026-07-17, trading 32.5% above its 200-week moving average of $276.40. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 31.9% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 57, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.1x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.03 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2200 weeks of data, AMGN has crossed below its 200-week moving average 22 times. On average, these episodes lasted 16 weeks. Historically, investors who bought AMGN at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +20.2%.
With a market cap of $197.7 billion, AMGN is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 3.8%. Return on equity stands at 101.3%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 21.5x book value.
Over the past 33.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in AMGN would have grown to $7040, compared to $3082 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 13.5% vs 10.7% for the index — confirming AMGN as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -2.7% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: AMGN vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After AMGN Crosses Below the Line?
Across 21 historical episodes, buying AMGN when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +20.4% after 12 months (median +9.0%), compared to +10.1% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 71% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +47.0% vs +22.8% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment AMGN crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices AMGN would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where AMGN's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-08-04.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $317.95 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $337.50 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $359.61 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $384.82 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $413.84 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from AMGN's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
AMGN has crossed below its 200-week MA 22 times with an average 1-year return of +20.2% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1984 | Apr 1985 | 49 | 42.7% | +35.6% | +465500.0% |
| Mar 1993 | Apr 1993 | 6 | 9.0% | +21.8% | +13027.9% |
| May 1993 | Oct 1993 | 20 | 19.9% | +29.8% | +12195.8% |
| Jan 1994 | May 1994 | 15 | 18.7% | +50.1% | +10323.9% |
| Jun 1994 | Jul 1994 | 7 | 9.2% | +56.3% | +9493.4% |
| Apr 2002 | Mar 2003 | 44 | 33.9% | +29.7% | +1018.1% |
| Nov 2003 | Dec 2003 | 4 | 3.1% | +3.0% | +836.7% |
| Mar 2004 | Aug 2004 | 21 | 9.0% | +1.5% | +839.3% |
| Sep 2004 | Nov 2004 | 8 | 8.8% | +47.5% | +852.2% |
| Mar 2005 | Apr 2005 | 1 | 0.3% | +26.9% | +851.4% |
| Feb 2007 | Jul 2008 | 74 | 36.9% | -26.3% | +783.6% |
| Sep 2008 | Jul 2009 | 46 | 25.4% | -2.4% | +803.2% |
| Aug 2009 | Sep 2009 | 3 | 1.5% | -12.6% | +815.3% |
| Sep 2009 | Oct 2009 | 1 | 0.9% | -5.2% | +831.4% |
| Oct 2009 | Jan 2010 | 14 | 8.6% | +2.5% | +871.4% |
| Feb 2010 | Mar 2010 | 3 | 1.6% | -4.9% | +866.1% |
| May 2010 | Sep 2010 | 20 | 8.6% | +5.8% | +901.9% |
| Nov 2010 | Dec 2010 | 5 | 1.8% | +6.8% | +901.7% |
| Feb 2011 | Apr 2011 | 11 | 3.4% | +26.6% | +915.3% |
| Aug 2011 | Aug 2011 | 3 | 7.6% | +61.0% | +946.9% |
| May 2023 | Jun 2023 | 3 | 1.6% | +45.4% | +85.1% |
| Jul 2023 | Jul 2023 | 1 | 1.4% | +46.6% | +83.7% |
| Average | 16 | — | +20.2% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AMGN below its 200-week moving average?
No. Amgen Inc. (AMGN) is currently 32.5% above its 200-week moving average of $276.40. It would need to fall to $276.40 to cross below the line.
What is AMGN's 200-week moving average price?
Amgen Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $276.40 as of 2026-07-17. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when AMGN drops below its 200-week moving average?
AMGN has crossed below its 200-week moving average 22 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +20.2%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 16 weeks on average.
Is AMGN a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about AMGN as of 2026-07-17: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 57. Free cash flow yield is 3.8%. Return on equity is 101.3%. Price-to-book is 21.5x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does AMGN compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.6 years, $100 invested in AMGN would have grown to $7040, compared to $3082 for the S&P 500. That's 13.5% annualized vs 10.7% for the index. AMGN has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does AMGN pay a dividend?
Yes. Amgen Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 271.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-17