AMD
Advanced Micro Devices Inc. Technology - Semiconductors Investor Relations →
Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD) closed at $424.10 as of 2026-05-15, trading 199.5% above its 200-week moving average of $141.60. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 225.4% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 85, AMD is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.1x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.17 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2360 weeks of data, AMD has crossed below its 200-week moving average 26 times. On average, these episodes lasted 42 weeks. Historically, investors who bought AMD at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +21.5%.
With a market cap of $691.5 billion, AMD is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 1.0%. Return on equity stands at 8.1%. The stock trades at 10.7x book value.
Over the past 33.4 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in AMD would have grown to $4524, compared to $3058 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 12.1% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming AMD as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 1 open-market purchase totaling $999,328.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 29.3% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: AMD vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After AMD Crosses Below the Line?
Across 21 historical episodes, buying AMD when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +0.6% after 12 months (median -10.0%), compared to +10.2% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 30% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +32.1% vs +26.8% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment AMD crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices AMD would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where AMD's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (last report: 2025-12-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $178.73 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $213.51 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $265.09 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $349.53 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $512.90 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Historical Touches
AMD has crossed below its 200-week MA 26 times with an average 1-year return of +21.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1981 | Apr 1981 | 6 | 8.2% | -19.4% | +10844.5% |
| Jun 1981 | Mar 1982 | 41 | 39.6% | -8.2% | +10339.4% |
| May 1982 | Jun 1982 | 3 | 3.0% | +255.5% | +11146.9% |
| Aug 1982 | Aug 1982 | 1 | 9.2% | +305.4% | +12017.1% |
| May 1986 | Mar 1991 | 253 | 67.9% | -18.2% | +3146.7% |
| Sep 1991 | Oct 1991 | 1 | 4.6% | +25.0% | +9324.4% |
| Jun 1992 | Aug 1992 | 11 | 24.0% | +121.3% | +8947.5% |
| Oct 1995 | Nov 1996 | 54 | 54.3% | -22.4% | +3608.0% |
| Nov 1996 | Dec 1996 | 1 | 0.4% | -10.1% | +3397.7% |
| Oct 1997 | Apr 1998 | 25 | 35.2% | -33.4% | +3138.9% |
| May 1998 | Nov 1998 | 27 | 45.0% | -32.0% | +3170.2% |
| Jan 1999 | Nov 1999 | 43 | 36.4% | +80.4% | +3690.8% |
| Nov 2000 | Jan 2001 | 6 | 16.7% | -12.2% | +2647.2% |
| Jul 2001 | Jul 2001 | 1 | 2.4% | -50.1% | +2394.7% |
| Aug 2001 | Dec 2001 | 21 | 53.3% | -45.5% | +2516.3% |
| Jan 2002 | Mar 2004 | 115 | 80.4% | -64.1% | +2422.9% |
| Apr 2004 | May 2004 | 4 | 6.5% | +0.1% | +2882.4% |
| Jul 2004 | Oct 2004 | 12 | 19.8% | +58.3% | +3255.2% |
| Jan 2007 | Nov 2010 | 203 | 89.4% | -65.8% | +2222.6% |
| Jul 2011 | Jul 2011 | 1 | 3.1% | -23.8% | +6495.6% |
| Aug 2011 | Sep 2011 | 4 | 7.5% | -30.1% | +6729.3% |
| Sep 2011 | Jan 2012 | 17 | 24.6% | -41.7% | +6773.6% |
| May 2012 | Apr 2016 | 205 | 70.4% | -32.3% | +6956.6% |
| Sep 2022 | Nov 2022 | 7 | 21.7% | +41.6% | +524.0% |
| Dec 2022 | Jan 2023 | 7 | 13.8% | +88.0% | +518.3% |
| Feb 2025 | Jun 2025 | 19 | 26.3% | +93.8% | +294.3% |
| Average | 42 | — | +21.5% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AMD below its 200-week moving average?
No. Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD) is currently 199.5% above its 200-week moving average of $141.60. It would need to fall to $141.60 to cross below the line.
What is AMD's 200-week moving average price?
Advanced Micro Devices Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $141.60 as of 2026-05-15. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when AMD drops below its 200-week moving average?
AMD has crossed below its 200-week moving average 26 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +21.5%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 42 weeks on average.
Is AMD a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about AMD as of 2026-05-15: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 85 (overbought). Free cash flow yield is 1.0%. Return on equity is 8.1%. Price-to-book is 10.7x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does AMD compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.4 years, $100 invested in AMD would have grown to $4524, compared to $3058 for the S&P 500. That's 12.1% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. AMD has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-05-15