AMAT
Applied Materials Inc. Technology - Semiconductor Equipment Investor Relations →
Applied Materials Inc. (AMAT) closed at $436.62 as of 2026-05-15, trading 143.8% above its 200-week moving average of $179.07. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 145.5% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 68, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.9x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.09 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2360 weeks of data, AMAT has crossed below its 200-week moving average 40 times. On average, these episodes lasted 16 weeks. Historically, investors who bought AMAT at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +41.4%.
With a market cap of $346.5 billion, AMAT is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 1.2%. Return on equity stands at 38.9%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 17.0x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 6.0% over the past three years. AMAT passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 33.4 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in AMAT would have grown to $55177, compared to $3058 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 20.8% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming AMAT as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: AMAT vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After AMAT Crosses Below the Line?
Across 28 historical episodes, buying AMAT when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +54.9% after 12 months (median +15.0%), compared to +11.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 59% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +90.9% vs +29.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment AMAT crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices AMAT would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where AMAT's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (last report: 2026-01-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $304.81 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $339.44 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $382.97 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $439.29 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $515.04 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Historical Touches
AMAT has crossed below its 200-week MA 40 times with an average 1-year return of +41.4% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1981 | Mar 1981 | 2 | 5.8% | -39.7% | +396040.8% |
| Jul 1981 | Oct 1982 | 67 | 40.3% | -31.8% | +363417.3% |
| Jul 1984 | Jul 1984 | 1 | 4.3% | -4.1% | +315196.7% |
| Oct 1984 | Dec 1984 | 10 | 12.3% | -12.0% | +335758.2% |
| Apr 1985 | May 1985 | 3 | 8.5% | +22.4% | +315196.7% |
| May 1985 | Feb 1986 | 38 | 31.2% | +13.7% | +302831.4% |
| Mar 1986 | Mar 1986 | 1 | 1.1% | +22.7% | +280800.1% |
| Mar 1986 | Apr 1986 | 3 | 9.0% | +30.9% | +284683.9% |
| Jun 1986 | Feb 1987 | 35 | 42.8% | +64.8% | +286001.6% |
| Nov 1987 | Dec 1987 | 5 | 6.6% | +53.6% | +275784.2% |
| Nov 1988 | Nov 1988 | 1 | 1.2% | +45.3% | +222195.6% |
| Sep 1990 | Jan 1991 | 19 | 33.6% | +17.5% | +159173.6% |
| Sep 1991 | Dec 1991 | 9 | 11.3% | +116.8% | +162526.4% |
| Jul 1996 | Sep 1996 | 9 | 10.2% | +228.5% | +19407.0% |
| Oct 1996 | Nov 1996 | 2 | 2.9% | +149.1% | +17948.5% |
| Aug 1998 | Oct 1998 | 6 | 4.9% | +225.8% | +10064.2% |
| Sep 2001 | Dec 2001 | 17 | 33.6% | -35.7% | +2896.5% |
| Jan 2002 | Feb 2002 | 6 | 9.6% | -32.9% | +2891.3% |
| Apr 2002 | May 2002 | 1 | 5.7% | -31.7% | +2622.1% |
| May 2002 | Jan 2004 | 84 | 53.8% | -29.8% | +2620.9% |
| Jan 2004 | Mar 2004 | 10 | 6.9% | -30.8% | +2579.8% |
| Apr 2004 | Jul 2005 | 66 | 21.5% | -30.3% | +2801.4% |
| Aug 2005 | Nov 2005 | 16 | 8.8% | -12.5% | +3274.7% |
| May 2006 | Sep 2006 | 19 | 14.9% | +12.2% | +3426.0% |
| Oct 2006 | Nov 2006 | 3 | 2.4% | +17.8% | +3353.9% |
| Dec 2007 | Jan 2008 | 4 | 7.0% | -35.4% | +3401.5% |
| Jul 2008 | Aug 2008 | 2 | 4.0% | -20.9% | +3330.5% |
| Sep 2008 | Jan 2011 | 123 | 52.2% | -20.0% | +3289.5% |
| May 2011 | Jan 2012 | 36 | 21.9% | -19.4% | +4010.4% |
| Feb 2012 | Mar 2012 | 2 | 1.5% | +14.8% | +4299.4% |
| Apr 2012 | Aug 2012 | 18 | 16.1% | +13.2% | +4368.9% |
| Sep 2012 | Jan 2013 | 17 | 13.6% | +43.2% | +4520.6% |
| Aug 2015 | Oct 2015 | 9 | 9.1% | +95.6% | +3109.3% |
| Jan 2016 | Jan 2016 | 1 | 2.4% | +113.6% | +2954.1% |
| Feb 2016 | Feb 2016 | 1 | 3.2% | +123.6% | +2957.9% |
| Oct 2018 | Oct 2018 | 1 | 2.2% | +75.7% | +1364.1% |
| Dec 2018 | Dec 2018 | 3 | 9.2% | +86.7% | +1343.0% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 3 | 10.6% | +206.0% | +1114.0% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 4 | 11.8% | +70.6% | +449.5% |
| Mar 2025 | Apr 2025 | 3 | 12.1% | +176.9% | +247.0% |
| Average | 16 | — | +41.4% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AMAT below its 200-week moving average?
No. Applied Materials Inc. (AMAT) is currently 143.8% above its 200-week moving average of $179.07. It would need to fall to $179.07 to cross below the line.
What is AMAT's 200-week moving average price?
Applied Materials Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $179.07 as of 2026-05-15. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when AMAT drops below its 200-week moving average?
AMAT has crossed below its 200-week moving average 40 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +41.4%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 16 weeks on average.
Is AMAT a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about AMAT as of 2026-05-15: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 68. Free cash flow yield is 1.2%. Return on equity is 38.9%. Price-to-book is 17.0x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does AMAT compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.4 years, $100 invested in AMAT would have grown to $55177, compared to $3058 for the S&P 500. That's 20.8% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. AMAT has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does AMAT pay a dividend?
Yes. Applied Materials Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 48.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-05-15