ALLY
Ally Financial Inc. Financial Services - Banking Investor Relations →
Ally Financial Inc. (ALLY) closed at $42.07 as of 2026-09-11, trading 23.7% above its 200-week moving average of $34.00. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 28.9% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 49, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.1x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.89 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 610 weeks of data, ALLY has crossed below its 200-week moving average 14 times. On average, these episodes lasted 17 weeks. Historically, investors who bought ALLY at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +18.9%.
With a market cap of $12.8 billion, ALLY is a large-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 9.7%. The stock trades at 0.9x book value.
Share count has increased 3.1% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 11.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in ALLY would have grown to $298, compared to $464 for the S&P 500. ALLY has returned 9.7% annualized vs 14.0% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -100% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: ALLY vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After ALLY Crosses Below the Line?
Across 14 historical episodes, buying ALLY when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +31.3% after 12 months (median +26.0%), compared to +19.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 64% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +59.3% vs +41.1% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment ALLY crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices ALLY would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where ALLY's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-16.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $42.35 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $43.34 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $44.37 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $45.45 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $46.59 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 | $1.22 | $1.21 | -1.0% |
| 2026-04-17 | $0.94 | $1.11 | +17.9% |
| 2026-01-21 | $1.02 | $1.09 | +6.5% |
| 2025-10-17 | $1.01 | $1.15 | +14.1% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
the write-ups I read Simply Wall St · Visual company reports and write-ups. Free tier covers five reports a month. referral
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from ALLY's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
ALLY has crossed below its 200-week MA 14 times with an average 1-year return of +18.9% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2015 | Jun 2015 | 23 | 22.0% | -29.3% | +133.8% |
| Jun 2015 | Jan 2017 | 83 | 29.9% | -26.5% | +145.6% |
| Mar 2017 | Jun 2017 | 14 | 9.8% | +32.3% | +176.1% |
| Dec 2018 | Dec 2018 | 1 | 1.0% | +47.9% | +150.0% |
| Mar 2020 | Sep 2020 | 28 | 51.9% | +86.9% | +113.1% |
| Jun 2022 | Jun 2022 | 1 | 1.2% | -9.9% | +48.6% |
| Jul 2022 | Aug 2022 | 2 | 2.0% | -6.5% | +46.1% |
| Aug 2022 | Dec 2023 | 67 | 33.3% | -7.7% | +47.8% |
| Sep 2024 | Nov 2024 | 8 | 6.4% | +32.4% | +35.7% |
| Dec 2024 | Dec 2024 | 1 | 0.9% | +35.4% | +27.3% |
| Jan 2025 | Jan 2025 | 1 | 2.7% | +38.1% | +29.8% |
| Mar 2025 | Mar 2025 | 2 | 1.5% | +13.4% | +27.1% |
| Mar 2025 | May 2025 | 5 | 7.7% | +28.1% | +37.1% |
| May 2025 | May 2025 | 1 | 0.3% | +29.9% | +29.9% |
| Average | 17 | — | +18.9% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ALLY below its 200-week moving average?
No. Ally Financial Inc. (ALLY) is currently 23.7% above its 200-week moving average of $34.00. It would need to fall to $34.00 to cross below the line.
What is ALLY's 200-week moving average price?
Ally Financial Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $34.00 as of 2026-09-11. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when ALLY drops below its 200-week moving average?
ALLY has crossed below its 200-week moving average 14 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +18.9%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 17 weeks on average.
Is ALLY a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about ALLY as of 2026-09-11: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 49. Return on equity is 9.7%. Price-to-book is 0.9x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does ALLY compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 11.8 years, $100 invested in ALLY would have grown to $298, compared to $464 for the S&P 500. That's 9.7% annualized vs 14.0% for the index. ALLY has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does ALLY pay a dividend?
Yes. Ally Financial Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 285.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-11