ALGN
Align Technology, Inc. Healthcare - Medical Instruments & Supplies Investor Relations →
Align Technology, Inc. (ALGN) closed at $157.25 as of 2026-05-15, trading 32.6% below its 200-week moving average of $233.20. This places ALGN in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -27.8% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 35, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 0.8x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.85 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1271 weeks of data, ALGN has crossed below its 200-week moving average 12 times. On average, these episodes lasted 38 weeks. Historically, investors who bought ALGN at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +39.0%.
With a market cap of $11.3 billion, ALGN is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 4.8%. Return on equity stands at 10.8%. The stock trades at 2.7x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 7.6% over the past three years.
Over the past 24.4 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in ALGN would have grown to $3177, compared to $1016 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 15.2% vs 10.0% for the index — confirming ALGN as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 21% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: ALGN vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After ALGN Crosses Below the Line?
Across 12 historical episodes, buying ALGN when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +46.2% after 12 months (median +62.0%), compared to +3.4% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 58% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +133.8% vs +22.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment ALGN crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices ALGN would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where ALGN's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (last report: 2025-12-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $149.27 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $161.26 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $175.33 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $192.09 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $212.40 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Historical Touches
ALGN has crossed below its 200-week MA 12 times with an average 1-year return of +39.0% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2002 | Mar 2003 | 61 | 70.8% | -39.0% | +2878.2% |
| Jan 2005 | Sep 2006 | 87 | 45.2% | -4.1% | +1695.1% |
| Jan 2008 | Feb 2008 | 1 | 7.2% | -34.7% | +1203.9% |
| Feb 2008 | May 2008 | 12 | 21.2% | -39.1% | +1126.6% |
| Jun 2008 | Aug 2008 | 8 | 14.1% | -10.7% | +1178.5% |
| Sep 2008 | Aug 2009 | 47 | 54.0% | +29.7% | +1300.3% |
| May 2010 | Jun 2010 | 1 | 4.7% | +71.1% | +1040.3% |
| Jun 2010 | Jul 2010 | 3 | 3.1% | +62.0% | +1007.4% |
| Sep 2011 | Sep 2011 | 1 | 0.6% | +152.9% | +951.1% |
| Aug 2019 | Oct 2019 | 9 | 7.2% | +66.8% | -14.2% |
| Mar 2020 | May 2020 | 10 | 31.7% | +173.9% | -19.7% |
| Apr 2022 | Ongoing | 213+ | 54.4% | Ongoing | -56.4% |
| Average | 38 | — | +39.0% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ALGN below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-05-15, Align Technology, Inc. (ALGN) is trading 32.6% below its 200-week moving average of $233.20. The current price is $157.25.
What is ALGN's 200-week moving average price?
Align Technology, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $233.20 as of 2026-05-15. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when ALGN drops below its 200-week moving average?
ALGN has crossed below its 200-week moving average 12 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +39.0%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 38 weeks on average.
Is ALGN a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about ALGN as of 2026-05-15: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 35. Free cash flow yield is 4.8%. Return on equity is 10.8%. Price-to-book is 2.7x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does ALGN compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 24.4 years, $100 invested in ALGN would have grown to $3177, compared to $1016 for the S&P 500. That's 15.2% annualized vs 10.0% for the index. ALGN has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-05-15