AFL
Aflac Incorporated Financial Services - Insurance Investor Relations →
Aflac Incorporated (AFL) closed at $116.81 as of 2026-05-15, trading 34.1% above its 200-week moving average of $87.10. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 30.4% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 51, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.0x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.90 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2360 weeks of data, AFL has crossed below its 200-week moving average 16 times. On average, these episodes lasted 12 weeks. Historically, investors who bought AFL at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +32.8%.
With a market cap of $59.5 billion, AFL is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 8.3%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 16.5%, a solid level. The stock trades at 2.0x book value.
AFL is a Dividend Aristocrat, having increased its dividend for 25 or more consecutive years. The current yield is 209.00%. The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 15.7% over the past three years. AFL passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 33.4 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in AFL would have grown to $9457, compared to $3058 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 14.6% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming AFL as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -13% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: AFL vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After AFL Crosses Below the Line?
Across 10 historical episodes, buying AFL when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +22.1% after 12 months (median +25.0%), compared to +12.1% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 80% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +46.6% vs +32.9% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment AFL crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices AFL would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where AFL's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (last report: 2025-12-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $103.71 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $106.70 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $109.88 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $113.25 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $116.84 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Historical Touches
AFL has crossed below its 200-week MA 16 times with an average 1-year return of +32.8% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1981 | Mar 1981 | 2 | 1.3% | -1.6% | +247863.9% |
| Aug 1981 | Apr 1982 | 35 | 13.4% | +26.6% | +243990.1% |
| Aug 1988 | Sep 1988 | 2 | 0.5% | +52.7% | +28402.2% |
| Apr 1990 | May 1990 | 5 | 6.9% | +72.2% | +23677.8% |
| Aug 1990 | Sep 1990 | 2 | 3.6% | +75.2% | +23644.9% |
| Sep 1990 | Oct 1990 | 6 | 10.9% | +74.1% | +23020.0% |
| Sep 2001 | Sep 2001 | 1 | 0.4% | +29.7% | +1593.3% |
| Dec 2001 | Jan 2002 | 1 | 0.4% | +33.2% | +1525.7% |
| Jul 2002 | Jul 2002 | 1 | 1.0% | +26.5% | +1420.7% |
| Oct 2008 | Nov 2009 | 60 | 71.8% | +17.9% | +812.3% |
| May 2010 | Jul 2010 | 9 | 9.5% | +27.3% | +677.3% |
| May 2011 | Oct 2011 | 21 | 31.1% | -14.3% | +619.8% |
| Nov 2011 | Jan 2012 | 10 | 12.6% | +13.9% | +639.4% |
| Apr 2012 | Apr 2012 | 2 | 3.2% | +20.3% | +662.8% |
| May 2012 | Jun 2012 | 6 | 8.7% | +45.6% | +737.2% |
| Mar 2020 | Nov 2020 | 37 | 36.4% | +26.1% | +230.7% |
| Average | 12 | — | +32.8% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AFL below its 200-week moving average?
No. Aflac Incorporated (AFL) is currently 34.1% above its 200-week moving average of $87.10. It would need to fall to $87.10 to cross below the line.
What is AFL's 200-week moving average price?
Aflac Incorporated's 200-week moving average is $87.10 as of 2026-05-15. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when AFL drops below its 200-week moving average?
AFL has crossed below its 200-week moving average 16 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +32.8%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 12 weeks on average.
Is AFL a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about AFL as of 2026-05-15: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 51. Free cash flow yield is 8.3%. Return on equity is 16.5%. Price-to-book is 2.0x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does AFL compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.4 years, $100 invested in AFL would have grown to $9457, compared to $3058 for the S&P 500. That's 14.6% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. AFL has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does AFL pay a dividend?
Yes. Aflac Incorporated currently pays a dividend yield of 209.00%. It is also a Dividend Aristocrat, meaning it has raised its dividend for 25 or more consecutive years.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-05-15