ADP
Automatic Data Processing, Inc. Technology - Software - Application Investor Relations →
Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP) closed at $208.69 as of 2026-03-20, trading 14.7% below its 200-week moving average of $244.74. This places ADP in the extreme value zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -15.5% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 26, ADP is in oversold territory.
A big jump in activity this week — 2.9x the usual volume, and the price went up. Significantly more people than usual decided to buy. This kind of surge, especially on a stock already below its 200-week average, can be an early sign that sentiment is shifting.
Over the past 2352 weeks of data, ADP has crossed below its 200-week moving average 16 times. On average, these episodes lasted 14 weeks. Historically, investors who bought ADP at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +27.3%.
With a market cap of $84.4 billion, ADP is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 4.1%. Return on equity stands at 73.8%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 13.2x book value.
ADP is a Dividend Aristocrat, having increased its dividend for 25 or more consecutive years. The current yield is 326.00%. Management has been repurchasing shares, with a 2.6% reduction over three years.
Over the past 33.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in ADP would have grown to $3822, compared to $2683 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 11.6% vs 10.4% for the index — confirming ADP as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 19.9% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: ADP vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After ADP Crosses Below the Line?
Across 9 historical episodes, buying ADP when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +7.0% after 12 months (median +9.0%), compared to +5.9% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 67% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +25.2% vs +25.3% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment ADP crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
ADP has crossed below its 200-week MA 16 times with an average 1-year return of +27.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1982 | Jan 1982 | 1 | 3.1% | +48.2% | +36683.2% |
| Feb 1982 | Feb 1982 | 1 | 0.1% | +40.2% | +35574.2% |
| Mar 1982 | Mar 1982 | 2 | 1.2% | +62.4% | +35936.4% |
| May 1982 | Aug 1982 | 14 | 15.7% | +59.4% | +35936.4% |
| Sep 1982 | Oct 1982 | 2 | 3.6% | +57.4% | +36874.8% |
| Feb 1989 | Apr 1989 | 5 | 2.7% | +40.5% | +11146.0% |
| Sep 2001 | Sep 2001 | 1 | 2.8% | -18.6% | +932.0% |
| Jun 2002 | Nov 2004 | 125 | 41.7% | -26.2% | +864.0% |
| Jan 2005 | Jan 2005 | 2 | 0.9% | +10.7% | +922.4% |
| Feb 2005 | Feb 2005 | 1 | 1.5% | +8.4% | +938.0% |
| Jun 2005 | Jun 2005 | 1 | 2.5% | +10.6% | +962.8% |
| Jan 2008 | Mar 2008 | 9 | 6.2% | +2.6% | +843.8% |
| Oct 2008 | Oct 2009 | 52 | 19.7% | +24.2% | +991.3% |
| Aug 2010 | Aug 2010 | 2 | 0.3% | +21.2% | +774.7% |
| Mar 2020 | Mar 2020 | 1 | 9.1% | +68.0% | +112.1% |
| Feb 2026 | Ongoing | 7+ | 15.5% | Ongoing | -9.1% |
| Average | 14 | — | +27.3% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ADP below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-03-20, Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP) is trading 14.7% below its 200-week moving average of $244.74. The current price is $208.69.
What is ADP's 200-week moving average price?
Automatic Data Processing, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $244.74 as of 2026-03-20. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when ADP drops below its 200-week moving average?
ADP has crossed below its 200-week moving average 16 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +27.3%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 14 weeks on average.
Is ADP a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about ADP as of 2026-03-20: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 26 (oversold). Free cash flow yield is 4.1%. Return on equity is 73.8%. Price-to-book is 13.2x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does ADP compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.2 years, $100 invested in ADP would have grown to $3822, compared to $2683 for the S&P 500. That's 11.6% annualized vs 10.4% for the index. ADP has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does ADP pay a dividend?
Yes. Automatic Data Processing, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 326.00%. It is also a Dividend Aristocrat, meaning it has raised its dividend for 25 or more consecutive years.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-03-20