ADM

Archer-Daniels-Midland Company Consumer Staples - Agricultural Products Investor Relations →

NO
5.3% ABOVE
↓ Approaching Was 14.5% last week
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%+
Buy Threshold $62.81
14-Week RSI 61
Rel. Volume (14w) This week's trading vs. the 14-week average 2.6x — Surging
Buyers vs. Sellers (14w) Are up-weeks or down-weeks getting more volume? 0.81

Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) closed at $66.17 as of 2026-03-20, trading 5.3% above its 200-week moving average of $62.81. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 14.5% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 61, indicating neutral momentum.

A big spike in selling this week — 2.6x the usual volume, and the price dropped. Sometimes this kind of heavy selling marks the end of a decline. The idea is that the last reluctant holders have finally sold, leaving fewer sellers left to push the price lower.

Over the past 2352 weeks of data, ADM has crossed below its 200-week moving average 35 times. On average, these episodes lasted 18 weeks. Historically, investors who bought ADM at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +13.0%.

With a market cap of $31.8 billion, ADM is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 6.8%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 4.7%. The stock trades at 1.4x book value.

The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 12.2% over the past three years.

Over the past 33.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in ADM would have grown to $1159, compared to $2683 for the S&P 500. ADM has returned 7.6% annualized vs 10.4% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.

Free cash flow has been growing at a 24.9% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.

Business Health

Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.

Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)

Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy

Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)

ROIC Return on invested capital (%)

FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal

Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)

Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)

Growth of $100: ADM vs S&P 500

Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.

What Happens After ADM Crosses Below the Line?

Across 29 historical episodes, buying ADM when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +11.7% after 12 months (median +7.0%), compared to +10.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 69% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +30.6% vs +28.2% for the index.

Each line shows $100 invested at the moment ADM crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.

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Historical Touches

ADM has crossed below its 200-week MA 35 times with an average 1-year return of +13.0% after recovery.

Crossed BelowRecoveredWeeksMax Depth1-Year ReturnReturn Since Touch
Feb 1981Dec 19814226.6%-19.0%+6204.0%
Dec 1981Nov 19824431.4%+17.3%+6371.6%
Apr 1984Apr 198434.0%+24.7%+6317.3%
May 1984Aug 19841212.5%+25.0%+6170.3%
Oct 1984Oct 198442.3%+33.7%+6165.5%
Nov 1984Nov 198410.5%+48.0%+6198.6%
Nov 1993Nov 199310.3%+31.2%+1213.5%
Oct 1995Oct 199511.4%+40.4%+1044.2%
Jul 1998Nov 19981811.4%-12.5%+749.1%
Dec 1998Dec 199827.0%-17.7%+742.6%
Jan 1999Jan 200110740.3%-23.5%+752.2%
Mar 2001Jun 20011115.4%+8.3%+805.9%
Jun 2001Jul 200113.4%+4.4%+846.0%
Jul 2001Aug 200133.0%-6.0%+849.6%
Sep 2001Oct 200153.9%+2.4%+872.0%
Jul 2002Aug 200267.2%+11.0%+881.1%
Feb 2003May 2003128.8%+56.9%+925.3%
Jun 2008Aug 201011251.0%-13.1%+239.4%
Nov 2010Jan 201184.0%+0.2%+234.3%
Jun 2011Jun 201133.0%+10.3%+237.2%
Aug 2011Nov 20111716.7%-8.8%+247.8%
Dec 2011Jan 201234.4%+0.2%+255.4%
Jul 2012Jan 20132712.3%+36.0%+255.5%
Nov 2015Apr 20162317.1%+14.0%+139.7%
May 2016May 201621.8%+14.4%+133.1%
May 2017May 201710.1%+11.9%+108.3%
Jun 2017Jul 201750.8%+16.6%+108.5%
Aug 2017Aug 201721.2%+24.7%+108.0%
Oct 2017Feb 2018155.6%+24.4%+114.0%
Dec 2018Dec 201820.8%+16.2%+101.0%
May 2019Jun 201934.8%-7.3%+105.9%
Jul 2019Sep 201987.1%+6.0%+100.3%
Oct 2019Oct 201911.3%+30.0%+101.5%
Feb 2020Jul 20202024.7%+55.2%+108.8%
Jan 2024Jan 202610334.6%+0.5%+37.9%
Average18+13.0%

Frequently Asked Questions

Is ADM below its 200-week moving average?

No. Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) is currently 5.3% above its 200-week moving average of $62.81. It would need to fall to $62.81 to cross below the line.

What is ADM's 200-week moving average price?

Archer-Daniels-Midland Company's 200-week moving average is $62.81 as of 2026-03-20. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.

What happens when ADM drops below its 200-week moving average?

ADM has crossed below its 200-week moving average 35 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +13.0%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 18 weeks on average.

Is ADM a good value right now?

Here's what our data says about ADM as of 2026-03-20: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 61. Free cash flow yield is 6.8%. Return on equity is 4.7%. Price-to-book is 1.4x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.

How does ADM compare to the S&P 500?

Over the past 33.2 years, $100 invested in ADM would have grown to $1159, compared to $2683 for the S&P 500. That's 7.6% annualized vs 10.4% for the index. ADM has underperformed the broader market over this period.

Does ADM pay a dividend?

Yes. Archer-Daniels-Midland Company currently pays a dividend yield of 314.00%.

Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Data as of week of 2026-03-20