ADM
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company Consumer Staples - Agricultural Products Investor Relations →
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) closed at $86.72 as of 2026-09-11, trading 38.9% above its 200-week moving average of $62.44. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 35.6% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 59, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.2x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.97 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2377 weeks of data, ADM has crossed below its 200-week moving average 34 times. On average, these episodes lasted 18 weeks. Historically, investors who bought ADM at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +13.1%.
With a market cap of $41.8 billion, ADM is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 2.8%. Return on equity stands at 7.6%. The stock trades at 1.8x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 12.2% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in ADM would have grown to $1539, compared to $3170 for the S&P 500. ADM has returned 8.4% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 24.9% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: ADM vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After ADM Crosses Below the Line?
Across 28 historical episodes, buying ADM when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +11.8% after 12 months (median +11.0%), compared to +10.5% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 68% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +31.8% vs +28.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment ADM crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices ADM would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where ADM's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-11-03.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $63.31 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $71.60 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $82.40 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $97.02 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $117.96 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | $1.44 | $1.84 | +28.0% |
| 2026-05-05 | $0.66 | $0.71 | +7.8% |
| 2026-02-03 | $0.80 | $0.87 | +9.2% |
| 2025-11-04 | $0.85 | $0.92 | +7.9% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from ADM's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
ADM has crossed below its 200-week MA 34 times with an average 1-year return of +13.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1981 | Dec 1981 | 42 | 26.6% | -19.0% | +8269.0% |
| Dec 1981 | Nov 1982 | 44 | 31.4% | +17.3% | +8491.6% |
| Apr 1984 | Apr 1984 | 3 | 4.0% | +24.7% | +8419.5% |
| May 1984 | Aug 1984 | 12 | 12.5% | +25.0% | +8224.3% |
| Oct 1984 | Oct 1984 | 4 | 2.4% | +33.7% | +8217.9% |
| Nov 1984 | Nov 1984 | 1 | 0.5% | +48.0% | +8261.9% |
| Nov 1993 | Nov 1993 | 1 | 0.2% | +31.2% | +1641.8% |
| Oct 1995 | Oct 1995 | 1 | 1.4% | +40.4% | +1419.0% |
| Jul 1998 | Nov 1998 | 18 | 11.5% | -12.5% | +1027.2% |
| Dec 1998 | Dec 1998 | 2 | 7.0% | -17.7% | +1018.7% |
| Jan 1999 | Jan 2001 | 107 | 40.4% | -23.5% | +1031.3% |
| Mar 2001 | Jun 2001 | 11 | 15.4% | +8.3% | +1102.7% |
| Jun 2001 | Jul 2001 | 1 | 3.4% | +4.4% | +1155.9% |
| Jul 2001 | Aug 2001 | 3 | 3.1% | -6.0% | +1160.7% |
| Sep 2001 | Oct 2001 | 5 | 3.9% | +2.4% | +1190.5% |
| Jul 2002 | Aug 2002 | 6 | 7.2% | +11.0% | +1202.6% |
| Feb 2003 | May 2003 | 12 | 8.8% | +56.9% | +1261.2% |
| Jun 2008 | Aug 2010 | 112 | 51.0% | -13.1% | +350.6% |
| Nov 2010 | Jan 2011 | 8 | 4.0% | +0.2% | +343.8% |
| Jun 2011 | Jun 2011 | 3 | 3.0% | +10.3% | +347.6% |
| Aug 2011 | Nov 2011 | 17 | 16.7% | -8.8% | +361.7% |
| Dec 2011 | Jan 2012 | 3 | 4.5% | +0.2% | +371.9% |
| Jul 2012 | Jan 2013 | 27 | 11.8% | +36.0% | +372.0% |
| Nov 2015 | Apr 2016 | 23 | 17.1% | +14.0% | +218.2% |
| May 2016 | May 2016 | 2 | 1.9% | +14.4% | +209.4% |
| Jun 2017 | Jul 2017 | 5 | 0.9% | +16.6% | +176.7% |
| Aug 2017 | Aug 2017 | 2 | 1.2% | +24.7% | +176.1% |
| Oct 2017 | Feb 2018 | 15 | 5.6% | +24.4% | +184.2% |
| Dec 2018 | Dec 2018 | 2 | 0.9% | +16.2% | +166.9% |
| May 2019 | Jun 2019 | 3 | 4.9% | -6.4% | +173.4% |
| Jul 2019 | Sep 2019 | 8 | 6.3% | +6.0% | +166.0% |
| Oct 2019 | Oct 2019 | 1 | 1.4% | +30.0% | +167.5% |
| Feb 2020 | Jul 2020 | 20 | 24.8% | +55.2% | +177.2% |
| Jan 2024 | Jan 2026 | 103 | 34.6% | +0.5% | +83.1% |
| Average | 18 | — | +13.1% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ADM below its 200-week moving average?
No. Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) is currently 38.9% above its 200-week moving average of $62.44. It would need to fall to $62.44 to cross below the line.
What is ADM's 200-week moving average price?
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company's 200-week moving average is $62.44 as of 2026-09-11. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when ADM drops below its 200-week moving average?
ADM has crossed below its 200-week moving average 34 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +13.1%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 18 weeks on average.
Is ADM a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about ADM as of 2026-09-11: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 59. Free cash flow yield is 2.8%. Return on equity is 7.6%. Price-to-book is 1.8x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does ADM compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.8 years, $100 invested in ADM would have grown to $1539, compared to $3170 for the S&P 500. That's 8.4% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. ADM has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does ADM pay a dividend?
Yes. Archer-Daniels-Midland Company currently pays a dividend yield of 239.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-11