ADBE

Adobe Inc. Technology - Software Investor Relations →

YES
42.3% BELOW
↓ Approaching Was -42.1% last week
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%+
Buy Threshold $429.84
14-Week RSI 18 📉
Rel. Volume (14w) This week's trading vs. the 14-week average 1.9x
Buyers vs. Sellers (14w) Are up-weeks or down-weeks getting more volume? 0.82

Adobe Inc. (ADBE) closed at $248.15 as of 2026-03-20, trading 42.3% below its 200-week moving average of $429.84. This places ADBE in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -42.1% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 18, ADBE is in oversold territory.

Trading volume is running at 1.9x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.82 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.

Over the past 2018 weeks of data, ADBE has crossed below its 200-week moving average 41 times. On average, these episodes lasted 12 weeks. Historically, investors who bought ADBE at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +38.9%.

With a market cap of $101.9 billion, ADBE is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 9.1%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 58.8%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 8.9x book value.

The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 10.6% over the past three years.

Over the past 33.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in ADBE would have grown to $9990, compared to $2683 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 14.9% vs 10.4% for the index — confirming ADBE as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.

Free cash flow has been growing at a 10% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.

Business Health

Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.

Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)

Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy

Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)

ROIC Return on invested capital (%)

FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal

Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)

Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)

Growth of $100: ADBE vs S&P 500

Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.

What Happens After ADBE Crosses Below the Line?

Across 36 historical episodes, buying ADBE when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +27.8% after 12 months (median +16.0%), compared to +13.2% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 67% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +92.8% vs +32.6% for the index.

Each line shows $100 invested at the moment ADBE crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.

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Historical Touches

ADBE has crossed below its 200-week MA 41 times with an average 1-year return of +38.9% after recovery.

Crossed BelowRecoveredWeeksMax Depth1-Year ReturnReturn Since Touch
Oct 1987Dec 1987717.4%+127.9%+39236.0%
Jan 1988Feb 198836.2%+72.5%+33065.6%
Sep 1989Nov 1989710.8%+34.1%+25528.0%
Dec 1989Dec 198912.2%+64.1%+24774.2%
Sep 1990Oct 1990312.5%+165.4%+22032.6%
Aug 1992Jan 19932026.8%+26.9%+12523.9%
Aug 1993Oct 1993620.1%+52.5%+10224.9%
Nov 1993Nov 199338.9%+81.7%+10667.6%
Dec 1993Dec 199310.1%+58.8%+9590.9%
Mar 1996Apr 199622.6%+32.2%+6379.7%
Jul 1996Aug 199668.6%+12.1%+6137.2%
Sep 1996Sep 199626.0%+24.5%+5906.2%
Oct 1996Nov 199622.9%+46.7%+5876.1%
Jan 1997Jan 199710.1%+6.8%+5516.2%
Mar 1997Mar 199728.7%+32.8%+5901.7%
Jun 1997Aug 199775.5%+10.4%+5529.2%
Dec 1997Dec 1997311.4%+16.5%+5607.5%
Jan 1998Feb 199844.5%+25.1%+5023.4%
May 1998Nov 19982341.6%+86.3%+4933.2%
Dec 1998Dec 199813.2%+206.9%+4800.5%
Feb 1999Mar 199925.0%+365.5%+4636.1%
Mar 2001Mar 200112.5%+45.2%+1754.0%
Sep 2001Dec 20011524.0%-21.9%+1890.7%
Jun 2002Sep 20036752.5%+4.1%+1289.2%
Nov 2003Mar 2004179.5%+47.1%+1163.0%
Feb 2008Feb 200812.3%-34.6%+647.7%
Feb 2008Mar 200834.9%-50.4%+637.4%
Sep 2008Nov 20095853.2%-4.0%+636.6%
Jan 2010Mar 2010610.5%-3.2%+621.8%
Mar 2010Mar 201011.3%-7.7%+615.7%
Apr 2010Feb 20114424.4%+1.5%+629.9%
Mar 2011Mar 201124.7%+5.7%+675.7%
Jun 2011Jan 20123429.9%-0.1%+683.5%
May 2012Jun 201211.9%+43.9%+732.2%
Apr 2022May 202242.6%-4.6%-37.3%
Jun 2022Jul 2022711.1%+15.3%-37.0%
Aug 2022May 20234033.7%+37.8%-34.9%
Apr 2024Apr 202433.1%-25.7%-47.7%
May 2024Jun 202437.5%-14.2%-47.8%
Oct 2024Nov 202420.7%-26.9%-48.7%
Dec 2024Ongoing67+42.3%Ongoing-46.7%
Average12+38.9%

Frequently Asked Questions

Is ADBE below its 200-week moving average?

Yes. As of 2026-03-20, Adobe Inc. (ADBE) is trading 42.3% below its 200-week moving average of $429.84. The current price is $248.15.

What is ADBE's 200-week moving average price?

Adobe Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $429.84 as of 2026-03-20. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.

What happens when ADBE drops below its 200-week moving average?

ADBE has crossed below its 200-week moving average 41 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +38.9%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 12 weeks on average.

Is ADBE a good value right now?

Here's what our data says about ADBE as of 2026-03-20: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 18 (oversold). Free cash flow yield is 9.1%. Return on equity is 58.8%. Price-to-book is 8.9x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.

How does ADBE compare to the S&P 500?

Over the past 33.2 years, $100 invested in ADBE would have grown to $9990, compared to $2683 for the S&P 500. That's 14.9% annualized vs 10.4% for the index. ADBE has outperformed the broader market over this period.

Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Data as of week of 2026-03-20