ABNB
Airbnb Inc. Consumer Discretionary - Travel Services Investor Relations →
Airbnb Inc. (ABNB) closed at $132.85 as of 2026-05-15, trading 3.2% above its 200-week moving average of $128.69. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 10.1% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 59, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.0x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.87 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 235 weeks of data, ABNB has crossed below its 200-week moving average 12 times. On average, these episodes lasted 14 weeks. The average one-year return after crossing below was -13.0%, suggesting these dips have not historically been reliable buying opportunities for this stock.
With a market cap of $78.8 billion, ABNB is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 4.0%. Return on equity stands at 32.3%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 10.3x book value.
Management has been repurchasing shares, with a 4.6% reduction over three years. ABNB passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 4.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in ABNB would have grown to $80, compared to $173 for the S&P 500. ABNB has returned -4.8% annualized vs 12.6% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 10.6% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: ABNB vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After ABNB Crosses Below the Line?
Across 12 historical episodes, buying ABNB when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -8.8% after 12 months (median -5.0%), compared to +12.9% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 12% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was -4.3% vs +33.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment ABNB crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices ABNB would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where ABNB's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $77.60 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $82.75 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $88.63 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $95.40 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $103.30 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Historical Touches
ABNB has crossed below its 200-week MA 12 times with an average 1-year return of +-13.0% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2021 | Feb 2022 | 10 | 14.3% | -39.4% | -20.3% |
| Feb 2022 | Mar 2022 | 3 | 14.1% | -20.8% | -14.3% |
| Apr 2022 | Jul 2023 | 66 | 42.8% | -32.5% | -18.3% |
| Jul 2023 | Sep 2023 | 5 | 11.1% | -8.5% | -5.2% |
| Sep 2023 | Dec 2023 | 11 | 18.5% | -0.8% | +0.5% |
| Dec 2023 | Jan 2024 | 3 | 2.5% | -2.0% | -2.4% |
| Jul 2024 | Feb 2025 | 29 | 18.8% | +0.9% | -5.2% |
| Mar 2025 | Jun 2025 | 13 | 21.3% | -0.9% | -1.1% |
| Jun 2025 | Jun 2025 | 1 | 2.0% | N/A | +0.9% |
| Jul 2025 | Dec 2025 | 20 | 11.8% | N/A | +3.8% |
| Feb 2026 | Feb 2026 | 2 | 4.9% | N/A | +8.7% |
| Mar 2026 | Apr 2026 | 4 | 3.6% | N/A | +5.2% |
| Average | 14 | — | +-13.0% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ABNB below its 200-week moving average?
No. Airbnb Inc. (ABNB) is currently 3.2% above its 200-week moving average of $128.69. It would need to fall to $128.69 to cross below the line.
What is ABNB's 200-week moving average price?
Airbnb Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $128.69 as of 2026-05-15. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when ABNB drops below its 200-week moving average?
ABNB has crossed below its 200-week moving average 12 times in our data. The average one-year return after these crossings was -13.0%, meaning the dips were not reliable buying signals for this particular stock. These episodes lasted 14 weeks on average.
Is ABNB a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about ABNB as of 2026-05-15: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 59. Free cash flow yield is 4.0%. Return on equity is 32.3%. Price-to-book is 10.3x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does ABNB compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 4.6 years, $100 invested in ABNB would have grown to $80, compared to $173 for the S&P 500. That's -4.8% annualized vs 12.6% for the index. ABNB has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-05-15