AAPL
Apple Inc. Technology - Consumer Electronics Investor Relations →
Apple Inc. (AAPL) closed at $332.27 as of 2026-09-11, trading 54.2% above its 200-week moving average of $215.52. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 49.1% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 58, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.0x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.74 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2339 weeks of data, AAPL has crossed below its 200-week moving average 21 times. On average, these episodes lasted 30 weeks. Historically, investors who bought AAPL at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +19.2%.
With a market cap of $4.8 trillion, AAPL is a mega-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 2.2%. Return on equity stands at 148.8%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 45.1x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 7.3% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in AAPL would have grown to $77544, compared to $3170 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 21.8% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming AAPL as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -3.9% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: AAPL vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After AAPL Crosses Below the Line?
Across 10 historical episodes, buying AAPL when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +5.3% after 12 months (median -32.0%), compared to +10.1% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 33% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +104.8% vs +26.3% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment AAPL crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices AAPL would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where AAPL's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-29.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $293.94 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $314.93 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $339.14 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $367.38 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $400.75 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | $1.89 | $2.02 | +6.7% |
| 2026-04-30 | $1.94 | $2.01 | +3.5% |
| 2026-01-29 | $2.67 | $2.84 | +6.3% |
| 2025-10-30 | $1.77 | $1.85 | +4.5% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from AAPL's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
AAPL has crossed below its 200-week MA 21 times with an average 1-year return of +19.2% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1981 | Oct 1982 | 46 | 48.3% | +62.5% | +512299.3% |
| Sep 1983 | Jan 1984 | 15 | 27.7% | +10.8% | +401365.3% |
| Jan 1984 | Feb 1984 | 4 | 10.1% | +13.4% | +372553.9% |
| Mar 1984 | Apr 1984 | 6 | 13.2% | -18.5% | +369018.5% |
| Jun 1984 | Jul 1984 | 5 | 7.6% | -32.1% | +367277.5% |
| Aug 1984 | Dec 1984 | 16 | 16.1% | -43.4% | +367277.5% |
| Feb 1985 | Mar 1986 | 55 | 44.5% | +0.5% | +391278.7% |
| Mar 1986 | Apr 1986 | 1 | 0.3% | +168.2% | +363844.2% |
| Dec 1989 | Dec 1989 | 1 | 3.2% | +19.6% | +140818.6% |
| Jan 1990 | Mar 1990 | 8 | 7.8% | +37.9% | +137754.8% |
| Aug 1990 | Dec 1990 | 16 | 28.4% | +47.5% | +129423.4% |
| Jun 1991 | Jul 1991 | 3 | 1.2% | +34.0% | +113597.8% |
| Jun 1992 | Jun 1992 | 1 | 0.1% | -7.5% | +103499.7% |
| Aug 1992 | Aug 1992 | 3 | 3.6% | -31.9% | +106783.8% |
| Sep 1992 | Oct 1992 | 2 | 4.1% | -47.4% | +105583.7% |
| Jun 1993 | Jun 1995 | 104 | 51.1% | -38.5% | +104910.4% |
| Sep 1995 | May 1998 | 138 | 54.8% | -41.3% | +124150.5% |
| May 1998 | Jun 1998 | 6 | 6.1% | +57.6% | +159313.5% |
| Oct 2000 | Feb 2004 | 177 | 53.7% | -27.3% | +100038.7% |
| Oct 2008 | Oct 2008 | 1 | 0.6% | +111.6% | +11426.4% |
| Nov 2008 | Mar 2009 | 19 | 17.8% | +126.6% | +12210.6% |
| Average | 30 | — | +19.2% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AAPL below its 200-week moving average?
No. Apple Inc. (AAPL) is currently 54.2% above its 200-week moving average of $215.52. It would need to fall to $215.52 to cross below the line.
What is AAPL's 200-week moving average price?
Apple Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $215.52 as of 2026-09-11. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when AAPL drops below its 200-week moving average?
AAPL has crossed below its 200-week moving average 21 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +19.2%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 30 weeks on average.
Is AAPL a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about AAPL as of 2026-09-11: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 58. Free cash flow yield is 2.2%. Return on equity is 148.8%. Price-to-book is 45.1x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does AAPL compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.8 years, $100 invested in AAPL would have grown to $77544, compared to $3170 for the S&P 500. That's 21.8% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. AAPL has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does AAPL pay a dividend?
Yes. Apple Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 33.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-11