Stock Faceoff: S&P Global (SPGI) vs. Nasdaq (NDAQ)

A mungbeans.io stock faceoff — March 14, 2026

The Matchup

S&P Global and Nasdaq are two of the most important companies in capital markets infrastructure. They’re in the same sector, serve overlapping customer bases, and both print money. But right now they’re sitting on opposite sides of the 200-week moving average — and that divergence creates a decision point.

SPGI just crossed below its 200WMA in February 2026, trading at $422 versus a 200-week line at $428 — roughly 1.4% below. This is its first meaningful breach in years, and the screener’s historical data shows 15 prior touches with a 19.6% average return in the twelve months following. Nasdaq, meanwhile, sits comfortably at $85.53, a full 28.3% above its 200WMA of $66.64. It has never crossed below the line in the last five years.

The question isn’t which is the better company. It’s which is the better buy at today’s prices.

Tale of the Tape

On pure fundamentals, this is remarkably close. Forward P/E is nearly identical (19.1x vs. 19.5x). EV/EBITDA is a wash (18.7x vs. 18.5x). Both are highly profitable, growing, and covered by strong analyst consensus. The superficial read is that these are interchangeable — two flavors of the same financial data business.

They’re not.

Round 1: The 200-Week Signal

This is the primary lens, so let’s start here.

SPGI’s crossing below the 200WMA is the event that puts it on the screener. The stock dropped from a 52-week high of $579 to $422 — a 27% drawdown — driven primarily by multiple compression rather than fundamental deterioration. Revenue grew 9% in 2025. Net income hit $4.47 billion, up from $3.85 billion in 2024. The business is accelerating, not contracting.

The historical signal is strong. SPGI has touched or crossed the 200WMA 15 times in the screener’s history, with an average 12-month return of 19.6% after touch. That’s a well-established pattern of mean reversion for a high-quality compounder.

Nasdaq has never breached the line. Its 13 historical touches produced a more modest 7.9% average return. The stock is 28% above the 200WMA, which in the mungbeans framework means it’s in neutral territory — not overheated, but offering no discount to long-term trend.

Edge: SPGI. The crossing is the whole thesis. You’re buying a company with improving fundamentals at a price the market hasn’t offered in years, with a strong historical signal backing mean reversion.

Round 2: Business Quality

Both companies operate capital-light, high-margin businesses with powerful network effects and switching costs. But the profiles differ.

SPGI is the larger and more diversified business — credit ratings (S&P Ratings), market intelligence, commodity insights (Platts), and indices (the S&P 500 itself). The IHS Markit merger in 2022 expanded its data footprint significantly. Revenue of $15.3 billion is nearly 3x Nasdaq’s, and quarterly earnings have been remarkably consistent: $1.07–1.18B in net income per quarter throughout 2025, with no misses.

Nasdaq has transformed from a pure exchange operator into a financial technology company. The Adenza acquisition in 2023 (anti-financial crime and regulatory technology) pushed it deeper into recurring SaaS-style revenue. The result shows in the margins: 100% gross margin (exchange and data revenue has near-zero marginal cost) and 47.6% operating margin, both superior to SPGI. Revenue growth of 13.4% and earnings growth of 47.6% outpace SPGI’s 9% and 32%.

Nasdaq also has meaningfully higher insider ownership at 10.87% versus SPGI’s 0.35%, which signals stronger management alignment.

Edge: Slight NDAQ. Faster growth, higher margins, better insider alignment. But SPGI’s scale and diversification provide more downside protection — credit ratings alone is a quasi-monopoly that’s survived every recession.

Round 3: Valuation & Price

Here’s where the matchup tilts decisively.

Both stocks trade at ~19x forward earnings. Both have similar FCF yields (~3.5–3.8%). On a standalone basis, neither is cheap — these are premium businesses trading at premium multiples, which is appropriate.

But context matters. SPGI at 19x forward is at the bottom of its recent valuation range. The stock was at 30x+ forward earnings at its 2024 highs. The compression from $579 to $422 has created a multiple that’s genuinely discounted relative to the company’s own history.

Nasdaq at 19.5x forward is closer to the middle of its range. It’s come off highs too (from $101.79 to $85.53, a 16% drawdown), but it hasn’t breached any long-term support level, and it’s not at a historically unusual valuation.

The FCF story reinforces this. SPGI generated $4.88 billion in free cash flow in 2025 — up from prior years — on only $195 million in total capex. That’s a cash conversion machine. At $127.9 billion market cap, the 3.81% FCF yield is the highest it’s been in years. For SPGI, you’re getting the most cash flow per dollar invested that the market has offered in recent memory.

SPGI is also a dividend aristocrat with an active buyback program. The combination of dividends, buybacks, and 9% revenue growth at 19x forward earnings — accessed at the 200WMA — is the textbook setup this screener was built to find.

Edge: SPGI. Same multiple, but SPGI is at the low end of its historical range while NDAQ is mid-range. The 200WMA crossing confirms the discount is real, not an artifact of cherry-picked metrics.

Round 4: Risk Profile

SPGI risks: Higher absolute debt ($13.7B), though Debt/Equity of 37.9 is manageable for a company generating $5.65B in operating cash flow. Interest coverage is comfortable. The primary risk is ratings revenue cyclicality — if credit issuance slows (rate hikes, recession), the ratings business can see quarter-to-quarter volatility. But this is well-understood and priced in.

NDAQ risks: Higher leverage relative to equity (D/E of 77.9), largely from the $10.5B Adenza acquisition. The integration risk is still playing out — while early returns are positive, the debt load is heavier relative to Nasdaq’s earnings power. The stock also carries the risk of sitting 28% above its long-term moving average, which historically produces lower forward returns than buying at or below the line.

Edge: SPGI. Lower relative leverage, more diversified revenue, and you’re buying at the 200WMA floor rather than 28% above it.

The Verdict

Winner: S&P Global (SPGI)

This isn’t close, and it has nothing to do with SPGI being the “better company.” Nasdaq may well outperform SPGI over a 10-year horizon on the strength of its growth trajectory and margin profile. But right now, at these prices, SPGI is the better investment.

The case comes down to three factors:

First, the 200WMA signal. SPGI just crossed below with a 19.6% average historical return after touch. Nasdaq is 28% above the line with no discount to long-term trend. The screener exists to identify exactly this kind of divergence.

Second, relative valuation. Both trade at ~19x forward earnings, but SPGI is at the low end of its own historical range while Nasdaq is mid-range. You’re getting the same quality at a better price relative to each stock’s own history.

Third, margin of safety. SPGI’s 27% drawdown from highs, combined with accelerating fundamentals (9% revenue growth, 32% earnings growth, record FCF), creates a cushion that Nasdaq’s 16% drawdown does not. If the broad market sells off further, SPGI has already absorbed a meaningful correction; Nasdaq has further to fall before reaching its own long-term support.

For the mungbeans.io framework, this is a straightforward call: buy the high-quality compounder when it crosses below the line, especially when the fundamentals haven’t deteriorated. SPGI at $422 is that setup. NDAQ at $85 is a fine company at a fair price — but fair prices don’t generate outsized returns.

This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

View on the screener: SPGI | NDAQ