Weekly Signal Report — September 26, 2026
This week, 26 stocks crossed below their 200-week moving average — entering what we call “deep value territory.” This is the signal our screener is built to detect: quality companies trading below a price level that has historically represented a floor over the prior four years.
Not every stock that crosses the line is a buy. Some are cheap for good reason. The 200-week moving average is a starting point for research, not a buy signal. Below, we break down each new crossing with the context you need to decide whether it’s opportunity or a warning.
On the other side, 26 stocks climbed back above the line this week — exiting deep value territory.
What is deep value territory?
The 200-week moving average represents roughly four years of price history. When a stock drops below this level, it means the current price is lower than the average investor paid over the last four years. For quality companies, these moments are rare — most stocks only cross below the 200-week line a handful of times in their history.
Our data shows that while 12-month returns from a crossing can be modest, 24-month returns are often significantly higher. The strategy requires patience. Not every crossing is a buying opportunity — some stocks are cheap because the business is deteriorating. That's why we pair the signal with quality metrics like free cash flow trends, insider buying, and return on equity.
📉 Newly Below the Line
Historical Context
This is the 19th time PAYX has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +22.1%. History favors the patient buyer here.
Quality Signals
Things to Watch
- RSI still elevated (54): The stock just crossed below the line but isn't oversold yet. It may have further to fall before reaching a bottom.
- No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
- The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
Historical Context
This is the 22th time FSLR has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +27.3%. History favors the patient buyer here.
Quality Signals
Things to Watch
- Oversold (RSI 29): The stock is already deeply oversold on a weekly basis. This could mean a bounce is near, but it could also mean momentum is strongly negative. Don't catch a falling knife without a thesis.
- The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
Historical Context
This is the 8th time CAMP has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +86%. History favors the patient buyer here.
Quality Signals
No quality flags detected. This stock crossed below the line without any of our positive quality signals — approach with extra caution.
Things to Watch
- Cash flow is deteriorating: Free cash flow is trending downward. The stock might be cheap for a reason — verify whether this is a temporary or structural issue.
- No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
- The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
Historical Context
This is the 23th time ORCL has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +41.6%. History favors the patient buyer here.
Quality Signals
No quality flags detected. This stock crossed below the line without any of our positive quality signals — approach with extra caution.
Things to Watch
- Cash flow is deteriorating: Free cash flow is trending downward. The stock might be cheap for a reason — verify whether this is a temporary or structural issue.
- No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
- The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
Historical Context
This is the 32th time GEN has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +36.1%. History favors the patient buyer here.
Quality Signals
Things to Watch
- No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
- The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
Historical Context
This is the 7th time GEVO has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of -54.7%. History has not rewarded buying this stock at the 200-week line — extra caution warranted.
Quality Signals
Things to Watch
- Cycling pattern: GEVO has crossed below the 200-week MA 7 times with modest average returns. This stock may oscillate around the line rather than bounce decisively — consider whether this is a value trap.
- No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
- The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
Historical Context
This is the 22th time GIL has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +28.6%. History favors the patient buyer here.
Quality Signals
Things to Watch
- No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
- The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
Historical Context
This is the 22th time PEG has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +28.6%. History favors the patient buyer here.
Quality Signals
No quality flags detected. This stock crossed below the line without any of our positive quality signals — approach with extra caution.
Things to Watch
- Oversold (RSI 21): The stock is already deeply oversold on a weekly basis. This could mean a bounce is near, but it could also mean momentum is strongly negative. Don't catch a falling knife without a thesis.
- No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
- The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
Historical Context
This is the 16th time ACAD has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +142.3%. History favors the patient buyer here.
Quality Signals
Things to Watch
- The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
Historical Context
This is the 6th time PCVX has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +59.4%. History favors the patient buyer here.
Quality Signals
No quality flags detected. This stock crossed below the line without any of our positive quality signals — approach with extra caution.
Things to Watch
- RSI still elevated (58): The stock just crossed below the line but isn't oversold yet. It may have further to fall before reaching a bottom.
- Cash flow is deteriorating: Free cash flow is trending downward. The stock might be cheap for a reason — verify whether this is a temporary or structural issue.
- No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
- The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
Historical Context
This is the 14th time BX has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +29.6%. History favors the patient buyer here.
Quality Signals
Things to Watch
- Cash flow is deteriorating: Free cash flow is trending downward. The stock might be cheap for a reason — verify whether this is a temporary or structural issue.
- No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
- The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
Historical Context
This is the 9th time ETSY has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +95.2%. History favors the patient buyer here.
Quality Signals
No quality flags detected. This stock crossed below the line without any of our positive quality signals — approach with extra caution.
Things to Watch
- No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
- The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
Historical Context
This is the 9th time OBDC has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +31.8%. History favors the patient buyer here.
Quality Signals
Things to Watch
- RSI still elevated (54): The stock just crossed below the line but isn't oversold yet. It may have further to fall before reaching a bottom.
- No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
- The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
Historical Context
This is the 11th time KKR has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +40.2%. History favors the patient buyer here.
Quality Signals
Things to Watch
- No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
- The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
Historical Context
This is the 18th time LADR has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of -1.1%. History has not rewarded buying this stock at the 200-week line — extra caution warranted.
Quality Signals
No quality flags detected. This stock crossed below the line without any of our positive quality signals — approach with extra caution.
Things to Watch
- Cash flow is deteriorating: Free cash flow is trending downward. The stock might be cheap for a reason — verify whether this is a temporary or structural issue.
- Cycling pattern: LADR has crossed below the 200-week MA 18 times with modest average returns. This stock may oscillate around the line rather than bounce decisively — consider whether this is a value trap.
- No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
- The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
Historical Context
This is the 4th time RXO has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of -1.8%. History has not rewarded buying this stock at the 200-week line — extra caution warranted.
Quality Signals
Things to Watch
- Cash flow is deteriorating: Free cash flow is trending downward. The stock might be cheap for a reason — verify whether this is a temporary or structural issue.
- Cycling pattern: RXO has crossed below the 200-week MA 4 times with modest average returns. This stock may oscillate around the line rather than bounce decisively — consider whether this is a value trap.
- No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
- The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
Historical Context
This is the 17th time CALM has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +51.5%. History favors the patient buyer here.
Quality Signals
No quality flags detected. This stock crossed below the line without any of our positive quality signals — approach with extra caution.
Things to Watch
- Cash flow is deteriorating: Free cash flow is trending downward. The stock might be cheap for a reason — verify whether this is a temporary or structural issue.
- No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
- The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
Historical Context
This is the 19th time EXR has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +11.4%. History favors the patient buyer here.
Quality Signals
Things to Watch
- No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
- The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
Historical Context
This is the 12th time ORC has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of -1.3%. History has not rewarded buying this stock at the 200-week line — extra caution warranted.
Quality Signals
No quality flags detected. This stock crossed below the line without any of our positive quality signals — approach with extra caution.
Things to Watch
- Cycling pattern: ORC has crossed below the 200-week MA 12 times with modest average returns. This stock may oscillate around the line rather than bounce decisively — consider whether this is a value trap.
- No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
- The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
Historical Context
This is the 7th time CRM has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +57.4%. History favors the patient buyer here.
Quality Signals
Things to Watch
- RSI still elevated (77): The stock just crossed below the line but isn't oversold yet. It may have further to fall before reaching a bottom.
- No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
- The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
Historical Context
This is the 6th time NEXT has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +15.5%. History favors the patient buyer here.
Quality Signals
Things to Watch
- Cash flow is deteriorating: Free cash flow is trending downward. The stock might be cheap for a reason — verify whether this is a temporary or structural issue.
- No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
- The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
Historical Context
This is the 17th time LOPE has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +15.4%. History favors the patient buyer here.
Quality Signals
Things to Watch
- RSI still elevated (55): The stock just crossed below the line but isn't oversold yet. It may have further to fall before reaching a bottom.
- The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
Historical Context
This is the 6th time EPRT has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +61.7%. History favors the patient buyer here.
Quality Signals
Things to Watch
- No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
- The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
Historical Context
This is the 4th time EVLV has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of -53.3%. History has not rewarded buying this stock at the 200-week line — extra caution warranted.
Quality Signals
No quality flags detected. This stock crossed below the line without any of our positive quality signals — approach with extra caution.
Things to Watch
- Cycling pattern: EVLV has crossed below the 200-week MA 4 times with modest average returns. This stock may oscillate around the line rather than bounce decisively — consider whether this is a value trap.
- No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
- The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
Historical Context
This is the 8th time PAGS has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +30.2%. History favors the patient buyer here.
Quality Signals
Things to Watch
- RSI still elevated (56): The stock just crossed below the line but isn't oversold yet. It may have further to fall before reaching a bottom.
- No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
- The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
Historical Context
This is the 21th time LSTR has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +23.1%. History favors the patient buyer here.
Quality Signals
No quality flags detected. This stock crossed below the line without any of our positive quality signals — approach with extra caution.
Things to Watch
- Oversold (RSI 24): The stock is already deeply oversold on a weekly basis. This could mean a bounce is near, but it could also mean momentum is strongly negative. Don't catch a falling knife without a thesis.
- Cash flow is deteriorating: Free cash flow is trending downward. The stock might be cheap for a reason — verify whether this is a temporary or structural issue.
- No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
- The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
📈 Recovered Above the Line
These stocks climbed back above their 200-week moving average this week. If you bought during their time below the line, this is a milestone — though not necessarily a sell signal.
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