Weekly Signal Report — September 19, 2026

📉 39 crossed below 📈 10 recovered

This week, 39 stocks crossed below their 200-week moving average — entering what we call “deep value territory.” This is the signal our screener is built to detect: quality companies trading below a price level that has historically represented a floor over the prior four years.

Not every stock that crosses the line is a buy. Some are cheap for good reason. The 200-week moving average is a starting point for research, not a buy signal. Below, we break down each new crossing with the context you need to decide whether it’s opportunity or a warning.

On the other side, 10 stocks climbed back above the line this week — exiting deep value territory.

What is deep value territory?

The 200-week moving average represents roughly four years of price history. When a stock drops below this level, it means the current price is lower than the average investor paid over the last four years. For quality companies, these moments are rare — most stocks only cross below the 200-week line a handful of times in their history.

Our data shows that while 12-month returns from a crossing can be modest, 24-month returns are often significantly higher. The strategy requires patience. Not every crossing is a buying opportunity — some stocks are cheap because the business is deteriorating. That's why we pair the signal with quality metrics like free cash flow trends, insider buying, and return on equity.

📉 Newly Below the Line

ALHC — Alignment Healthcare, Inc.

Healthcare - Healthcare Plans $1.7B
30.9% below $8.35 → 200WMA $12.08

Historical Context

This is the 4th time ALHC has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of -1.7%. History has not rewarded buying this stock at the 200-week line — extra caution warranted.

Quality Signals

💰 10.9% FCF Yield 📉 RSI 24 (Oversold) 🔄 Frequent Crosser — Weak Recoveries 💥 Capitulation Volume

Things to Watch

  • Oversold (RSI 24): The stock is already deeply oversold on a weekly basis. This could mean a bounce is near, but it could also mean momentum is strongly negative. Don't catch a falling knife without a thesis.
  • Cycling pattern: ALHC has crossed below the 200-week MA 4 times with modest average returns. This stock may oscillate around the line rather than bounce decisively — consider whether this is a value trap.
  • No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
  • The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
View full ALHC analysis →

AMR — Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc.

Energy - Coal $2.2B
14.6% below $174.22 → 200WMA $204.07

Historical Context

This is the 4th time AMR has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +10.4%. History favors the patient buyer here.

Quality Signals

🔍 Insider Buying ⚠️ FCF Declining

Things to Watch

  • Cash flow is deteriorating: Free cash flow is trending downward. The stock might be cheap for a reason — verify whether this is a temporary or structural issue.
  • No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
  • The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
View full AMR analysis →

CRK — Comstock Resources, Inc.

Energy - Oil & Gas E&P $3.8B
12.5% below $12.84 → 200WMA $14.67

Historical Context

This is the 29th time CRK has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +6.2%. History favors the patient buyer here.

Quality Signals

⚠️ FCF Declining

No quality flags detected. This stock crossed below the line without any of our positive quality signals — approach with extra caution.

Things to Watch

  • Cash flow is deteriorating: Free cash flow is trending downward. The stock might be cheap for a reason — verify whether this is a temporary or structural issue.
  • Cycling pattern: CRK has crossed below the 200-week MA 29 times with modest average returns. This stock may oscillate around the line rather than bounce decisively — consider whether this is a value trap.
  • No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
  • The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
View full CRK analysis →

CXT — Crane NXT, Co.

Industrials - Security & Detection $2.6B
12.3% below $45.61 → 200WMA $52.00

Historical Context

This is the 25th time CXT has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +12.5%. History favors the patient buyer here.

Quality Signals

🔍 Insider Buying 💰 9.1% FCF Yield ⚠️ FCF Declining

Things to Watch

  • RSI still elevated (56): The stock just crossed below the line but isn't oversold yet. It may have further to fall before reaching a bottom.
  • Cash flow is deteriorating: Free cash flow is trending downward. The stock might be cheap for a reason — verify whether this is a temporary or structural issue.
  • No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
  • The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
View full CXT analysis →

LAZ — Lazard, Inc.

Financial Services - Capital Markets $3.5B
9.5% below $35.75 → 200WMA $39.51

Historical Context

This is the 23th time LAZ has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +6.1%. History favors the patient buyer here.

Quality Signals

⚠️ FCF Declining 💥 Capitulation Volume

No quality flags detected. This stock crossed below the line without any of our positive quality signals — approach with extra caution.

Things to Watch

  • Cash flow is deteriorating: Free cash flow is trending downward. The stock might be cheap for a reason — verify whether this is a temporary or structural issue.
  • Cycling pattern: LAZ has crossed below the 200-week MA 23 times with modest average returns. This stock may oscillate around the line rather than bounce decisively — consider whether this is a value trap.
  • No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
  • The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
View full LAZ analysis →

IONS — Ionis Pharmaceuticals Inc.

Healthcare - Biotechnology $7.4B
9.2% below $44.44 → 200WMA $48.91

Historical Context

This is the 27th time IONS has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +11.5%. History favors the patient buyer here.

Quality Signals

🔍 Insider Buying ⚠️ FCF Declining 📉 RSI 29 (Oversold) 💥 Capitulation Volume

Things to Watch

  • Oversold (RSI 29): The stock is already deeply oversold on a weekly basis. This could mean a bounce is near, but it could also mean momentum is strongly negative. Don't catch a falling knife without a thesis.
  • Cash flow is deteriorating: Free cash flow is trending downward. The stock might be cheap for a reason — verify whether this is a temporary or structural issue.
  • No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
  • The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
View full IONS analysis →

MNR — Mach Natural Resources LP

Energy - Oil & Gas E&P $1.9B
9.1% below $11.13 → 200WMA $12.25

Historical Context

This is the 6th time MNR has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of -5.6%. History has not rewarded buying this stock at the 200-week line — extra caution warranted.

Quality Signals

⚠️ FCF Declining 🔄 Frequent Crosser — Weak Recoveries 💥 Capitulation Volume

No quality flags detected. This stock crossed below the line without any of our positive quality signals — approach with extra caution.

Things to Watch

  • Cash flow is deteriorating: Free cash flow is trending downward. The stock might be cheap for a reason — verify whether this is a temporary or structural issue.
  • Cycling pattern: MNR has crossed below the 200-week MA 6 times with modest average returns. This stock may oscillate around the line rather than bounce decisively — consider whether this is a value trap.
  • No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
  • The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
View full MNR analysis →

RKT — Rocket Companies, Inc.

Financial Services - Mortgage Lending $34.8B
5.6% below $12.29 → 200WMA $13.02

Historical Context

This is the 5th time RKT has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +2.2%. History favors the patient buyer here.

Quality Signals

⚠️ FCF Declining 🔄 Frequent Crosser — Weak Recoveries

No quality flags detected. This stock crossed below the line without any of our positive quality signals — approach with extra caution.

Things to Watch

  • Cash flow is deteriorating: Free cash flow is trending downward. The stock might be cheap for a reason — verify whether this is a temporary or structural issue.
  • Cycling pattern: RKT has crossed below the 200-week MA 5 times with modest average returns. This stock may oscillate around the line rather than bounce decisively — consider whether this is a value trap.
  • No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
  • The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
View full RKT analysis →

NVST — Envista Holdings Corporation

Healthcare - Medical Instruments & Supplies $3.8B
4.8% below $23.35 → 200WMA $24.52

Historical Context

This is the 9th time NVST has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +3%. History favors the patient buyer here.

Quality Signals

📈 FCF Growing 💰 7.1% FCF Yield 🔄 Frequent Crosser — Weak Recoveries

Things to Watch

  • Cycling pattern: NVST has crossed below the 200-week MA 9 times with modest average returns. This stock may oscillate around the line rather than bounce decisively — consider whether this is a value trap.
  • No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
  • The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
View full NVST analysis →

XENE — Xenon Pharmaceuticals Inc.

Healthcare - Biotechnology $3.8B
4.3% below $39.75 → 200WMA $41.54

Historical Context

This is the 6th time XENE has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +52.5%. History favors the patient buyer here.

Quality Signals

⚠️ FCF Declining 💥 Capitulation Volume

No quality flags detected. This stock crossed below the line without any of our positive quality signals — approach with extra caution.

Things to Watch

  • Cash flow is deteriorating: Free cash flow is trending downward. The stock might be cheap for a reason — verify whether this is a temporary or structural issue.
  • No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
  • The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
View full XENE analysis →

CG — The Carlyle Group Inc.

Financial Services - Asset Management $14.3B
4.3% below $40.10 → 200WMA $41.89

Historical Context

This is the 13th time CG has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +20.3%. History favors the patient buyer here.

Quality Signals

⚠️ FCF Declining

No quality flags detected. This stock crossed below the line without any of our positive quality signals — approach with extra caution.

Things to Watch

  • Cash flow is deteriorating: Free cash flow is trending downward. The stock might be cheap for a reason — verify whether this is a temporary or structural issue.
  • No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
  • The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
View full CG analysis →

NXST — Nexstar Media Group, Inc.

Communication Services - Broadcasting $4.8B
4.2% below $156.53 → 200WMA $163.39

Historical Context

This is the 14th time NXST has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +50.1%. History favors the patient buyer here.

Quality Signals

💰 16.6% FCF Yield ⚠️ FCF Declining 💥 Capitulation Volume

Things to Watch

  • Cash flow is deteriorating: Free cash flow is trending downward. The stock might be cheap for a reason — verify whether this is a temporary or structural issue.
  • No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
  • The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
View full NXST analysis →

IVA — Inventiva S.A.

Healthcare - Biotechnology $893M
4% below $3.78 → 200WMA $3.94

Historical Context

This is the 8th time IVA has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of -59.6%. History has not rewarded buying this stock at the 200-week line — extra caution warranted.

Quality Signals

⚠️ FCF Declining 🔄 Frequent Crosser — Weak Recoveries

No quality flags detected. This stock crossed below the line without any of our positive quality signals — approach with extra caution.

Things to Watch

  • Cash flow is deteriorating: Free cash flow is trending downward. The stock might be cheap for a reason — verify whether this is a temporary or structural issue.
  • Cycling pattern: IVA has crossed below the 200-week MA 8 times with modest average returns. This stock may oscillate around the line rather than bounce decisively — consider whether this is a value trap.
  • No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
  • The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
View full IVA analysis →

KSS — Kohl's Corporation

Consumer Discretionary - Department Stores $1.9B
3.6% below $16.55 → 200WMA $17.16

Historical Context

This is the 30th time KSS has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of -13.1%. History has not rewarded buying this stock at the 200-week line — extra caution warranted.

Quality Signals

🎯 Yartseva Multibagger 💰 46.9% FCF Yield 🔄 Frequent Crosser — Weak Recoveries

Things to Watch

  • Cycling pattern: KSS has crossed below the 200-week MA 30 times with modest average returns. This stock may oscillate around the line rather than bounce decisively — consider whether this is a value trap.
  • No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
  • The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
View full KSS analysis →

MGM — MGM Resorts International

Consumer Discretionary - Casinos $9.7B
3.1% below $37.81 → 200WMA $39.02

Historical Context

This is the 34th time MGM has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +23.1%. History favors the patient buyer here.

Quality Signals

🔍 Insider Buying 📈 FCF Growing 💰 9.1% FCF Yield 📉 RSI 15 (Oversold)

Things to Watch

  • Oversold (RSI 15): The stock is already deeply oversold on a weekly basis. This could mean a bounce is near, but it could also mean momentum is strongly negative. Don't catch a falling knife without a thesis.
  • No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
  • The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
View full MGM analysis →

RIVN — Rivian Automotive Inc.

Consumer Discretionary - Electric Vehicles $21.7B
2.8% below $14.99 → 200WMA $15.42

Historical Context

This is the 4th time RIVN has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of -47.6%. History has not rewarded buying this stock at the 200-week line — extra caution warranted.

Quality Signals

🔍 Insider Buying 🔄 Frequent Crosser — Weak Recoveries

Things to Watch

  • Cycling pattern: RIVN has crossed below the 200-week MA 4 times with modest average returns. This stock may oscillate around the line rather than bounce decisively — consider whether this is a value trap.
  • No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
  • The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
View full RIVN analysis →

BOOT — Boot Barn Holdings Inc.

Consumer Discretionary - Specialty Retail $3.7B
2.5% below $122.92 → 200WMA $126.13

Historical Context

This is the 7th time BOOT has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +133.5%. History favors the patient buyer here.

Quality Signals

📉 RSI 27 (Oversold)

No quality flags detected. This stock crossed below the line without any of our positive quality signals — approach with extra caution.

Things to Watch

  • Oversold (RSI 27): The stock is already deeply oversold on a weekly basis. This could mean a bounce is near, but it could also mean momentum is strongly negative. Don't catch a falling knife without a thesis.
  • No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
  • The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
View full BOOT analysis →

MDLZ — Mondelez International Inc.

Consumer Staples - Snacks $77.7B
2.5% below $60.85 → 200WMA $62.43

Historical Context

This is the 20th time MDLZ has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +8.3%. History favors the patient buyer here.

Quality Signals

No quality flags detected. This stock crossed below the line without any of our positive quality signals — approach with extra caution.

Things to Watch

  • Cycling pattern: MDLZ has crossed below the 200-week MA 20 times with modest average returns. This stock may oscillate around the line rather than bounce decisively — consider whether this is a value trap.
  • No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
  • The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
View full MDLZ analysis →

CPT — Camden Property Trust

Real Estate - REIT - Residential $11.5B
2.4% below $99.12 → 200WMA $101.60

Historical Context

This is the 23th time CPT has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +15.7%. History favors the patient buyer here.

Quality Signals

📈 FCF Growing

Things to Watch

  • No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
  • The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
View full CPT analysis →

RRX — Regal Rexnord Corporation

Industrials - Electric Motors $9.9B
2.3% below $148.05 → 200WMA $151.59

Historical Context

This is the 39th time RRX has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +17.5%. History favors the patient buyer here.

Quality Signals

📈 FCF Growing 📉 RSI 22 (Oversold) 📉 Distribution

Things to Watch

  • Oversold (RSI 22): The stock is already deeply oversold on a weekly basis. This could mean a bounce is near, but it could also mean momentum is strongly negative. Don't catch a falling knife without a thesis.
  • No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
  • The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
View full RRX analysis →

VMC — Vulcan Materials Company

Materials - Construction Aggregates $31.2B
2.1% below $240.83 → 200WMA $245.99

Historical Context

This is the 20th time VMC has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +20%. History favors the patient buyer here.

Quality Signals

📈 FCF Growing

Things to Watch

  • No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
  • The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
View full VMC analysis →

OMC — Omnicom Group Inc.

Communication Services - Advertising Agencies $21.0B
2% below $76.57 → 200WMA $78.11

Historical Context

This is the 43th time OMC has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +17.4%. History favors the patient buyer here.

Quality Signals

📈 FCF Growing 💰 20.3% FCF Yield 💥 Capitulation Volume

Things to Watch

  • RSI still elevated (51): The stock just crossed below the line but isn't oversold yet. It may have further to fall before reaching a bottom.
  • No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
  • The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
View full OMC analysis →

NEWT — NewtekOne, Inc.

Financial Services - Banks - Regional $334M
1.8% below $11.56 → 200WMA $11.77

Historical Context

This is the 10th time NEWT has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +18.5%. History favors the patient buyer here.

Quality Signals

⚠️ FCF Declining

No quality flags detected. This stock crossed below the line without any of our positive quality signals — approach with extra caution.

Things to Watch

  • Cash flow is deteriorating: Free cash flow is trending downward. The stock might be cheap for a reason — verify whether this is a temporary or structural issue.
  • No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
  • The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
View full NEWT analysis →

HTLD — Heartland Express, Inc.

Industrials - Trucking $918M
1.7% below $11.87 → 200WMA $12.08

Historical Context

This is the 38th time HTLD has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +10.9%. History favors the patient buyer here.

Quality Signals

⚠️ FCF Declining 📉 RSI 27 (Oversold)

No quality flags detected. This stock crossed below the line without any of our positive quality signals — approach with extra caution.

Things to Watch

  • Oversold (RSI 27): The stock is already deeply oversold on a weekly basis. This could mean a bounce is near, but it could also mean momentum is strongly negative. Don't catch a falling knife without a thesis.
  • Cash flow is deteriorating: Free cash flow is trending downward. The stock might be cheap for a reason — verify whether this is a temporary or structural issue.
  • No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
  • The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
View full HTLD analysis →

NFLX — Netflix Inc.

Communication Services - Streaming $298.9B
1.6% below $71.79 → 200WMA $72.99

Historical Context

This is the 15th time NFLX has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +41.9%. History favors the patient buyer here.

Quality Signals

📈 FCF Growing 💰 8.5% FCF Yield

Things to Watch

  • No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
  • The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
View full NFLX analysis →

PEGA — Pegasystems Inc.

Technology - Enterprise Software $5.8B
1.6% below $35.05 → 200WMA $35.61

Historical Context

This is the 19th time PEGA has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of -1.4%. History has not rewarded buying this stock at the 200-week line — extra caution warranted.

Quality Signals

🏆 Buffett Quality 💰 8.8% FCF Yield 🔄 Frequent Crosser — Weak Recoveries 📉 Distribution

Things to Watch

  • RSI still elevated (55): The stock just crossed below the line but isn't oversold yet. It may have further to fall before reaching a bottom.
  • Cycling pattern: PEGA has crossed below the 200-week MA 19 times with modest average returns. This stock may oscillate around the line rather than bounce decisively — consider whether this is a value trap.
  • The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
View full PEGA analysis →

TXT — Textron Inc.

Industrials - Aerospace & Defense $13.7B
1.5% below $79.69 → 200WMA $80.87

Historical Context

This is the 35th time TXT has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +8.5%. History favors the patient buyer here.

Quality Signals

🔍 Insider Buying ⚠️ FCF Declining

Things to Watch

  • Cash flow is deteriorating: Free cash flow is trending downward. The stock might be cheap for a reason — verify whether this is a temporary or structural issue.
  • Cycling pattern: TXT has crossed below the 200-week MA 35 times with modest average returns. This stock may oscillate around the line rather than bounce decisively — consider whether this is a value trap.
  • No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
  • The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
View full TXT analysis →

BA — The Boeing Company

Industrials - Aerospace $156.7B
1.3% below $198.20 → 200WMA $200.83

Historical Context

This is the 37th time BA has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +8.9%. History favors the patient buyer here.

Quality Signals

No quality flags detected. This stock crossed below the line without any of our positive quality signals — approach with extra caution.

Things to Watch

  • Cycling pattern: BA has crossed below the 200-week MA 37 times with modest average returns. This stock may oscillate around the line rather than bounce decisively — consider whether this is a value trap.
  • No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
  • The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
View full BA analysis →

ON — ON Semiconductor Corporation

Technology - Semiconductors $27.2B
1.1% below $69.98 → 200WMA $70.73

Historical Context

This is the 29th time ON has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +20.4%. History favors the patient buyer here.

Quality Signals

💰 6.1% FCF Yield 📉 RSI 20 (Oversold)

Things to Watch

  • Oversold (RSI 20): The stock is already deeply oversold on a weekly basis. This could mean a bounce is near, but it could also mean momentum is strongly negative. Don't catch a falling knife without a thesis.
  • No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
  • The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
View full ON analysis →

DLTR — Dollar Tree Inc.

Consumer Discretionary - Discount Retail $21.0B
1% below $111.96 → 200WMA $113.13

Historical Context

This is the 26th time DLTR has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +13.4%. History favors the patient buyer here.

Quality Signals

📈 FCF Growing

Things to Watch

  • No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
  • The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
View full DLTR analysis →

HRI — Herc Holdings Inc.

Industrials - Rental & Leasing Services $4.5B
0.9% below $135.26 → 200WMA $136.55

Historical Context

This is the 17th time HRI has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +19.3%. History favors the patient buyer here.

Quality Signals

🔍 Insider Buying 💰 11.1% FCF Yield ⚠️ FCF Declining 💥 Capitulation Volume

Things to Watch

  • Cash flow is deteriorating: Free cash flow is trending downward. The stock might be cheap for a reason — verify whether this is a temporary or structural issue.
  • No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
  • The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
View full HRI analysis →

EXE — Expand Energy Corporation

Energy $20.3B
0.6% below $87.49 → 200WMA $88.06

Historical Context

This is the 4th time EXE has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +39.2%. History favors the patient buyer here.

Quality Signals

💰 7.2% FCF Yield ⚠️ FCF Declining

Things to Watch

  • Cash flow is deteriorating: Free cash flow is trending downward. The stock might be cheap for a reason — verify whether this is a temporary or structural issue.
  • No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
  • The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
View full EXE analysis →

GPC — Genuine Parts Company

Consumer Cyclical - Auto Parts $17.7B
0.6% below $128.08 → 200WMA $128.80

Historical Context

This is the 22th time GPC has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +9%. History favors the patient buyer here.

Quality Signals

👑 Dividend Aristocrat 💰 5.2% FCF Yield ⚠️ FCF Declining

Things to Watch

  • RSI still elevated (69): The stock just crossed below the line but isn't oversold yet. It may have further to fall before reaching a bottom.
  • Cash flow is deteriorating: Free cash flow is trending downward. The stock might be cheap for a reason — verify whether this is a temporary or structural issue.
  • Cycling pattern: GPC has crossed below the 200-week MA 22 times with modest average returns. This stock may oscillate around the line rather than bounce decisively — consider whether this is a value trap.
  • The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
View full GPC analysis →

CBT — Cabot Corporation

Basic Materials - Specialty Chemicals $4.0B
0.5% below $77.44 → 200WMA $77.84

Historical Context

This is the 36th time CBT has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +19.3%. History favors the patient buyer here.

Quality Signals

💰 6.5% FCF Yield

Things to Watch

  • No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
  • The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
View full CBT analysis →

ELV — Elevance Health Inc.

Healthcare - Insurance $89.1B
0.5% below $410.95 → 200WMA $412.79

Historical Context

This is the 10th time ELV has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +27.7%. History favors the patient buyer here.

Quality Signals

🔍 Insider Buying ⚠️ FCF Declining

Things to Watch

  • RSI still elevated (53): The stock just crossed below the line but isn't oversold yet. It may have further to fall before reaching a bottom.
  • Cash flow is deteriorating: Free cash flow is trending downward. The stock might be cheap for a reason — verify whether this is a temporary or structural issue.
  • No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
  • The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
View full ELV analysis →

ARES — Ares Management Corporation

Financial Services - Asset Management $41.1B
0.4% below $123.80 → 200WMA $124.25

Historical Context

This is the 6th time ARES has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +12.9%. History favors the patient buyer here.

Quality Signals

🔍 Insider Buying 💰 5.3% FCF Yield

Things to Watch

  • No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
  • The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
View full ARES analysis →

SLDP — Solid Power Inc.

Industrials - Batteries $564M
0.2% below $2.47 → 200WMA $2.47

Historical Context

This is the 4th time SLDP has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of -52.9%. History has not rewarded buying this stock at the 200-week line — extra caution warranted.

Quality Signals

⚠️ FCF Declining 🔄 Frequent Crosser — Weak Recoveries

No quality flags detected. This stock crossed below the line without any of our positive quality signals — approach with extra caution.

Things to Watch

  • Cash flow is deteriorating: Free cash flow is trending downward. The stock might be cheap for a reason — verify whether this is a temporary or structural issue.
  • Cycling pattern: SLDP has crossed below the 200-week MA 4 times with modest average returns. This stock may oscillate around the line rather than bounce decisively — consider whether this is a value trap.
  • No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
  • The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
View full SLDP analysis →

ITRI — Itron, Inc.

Technology - Scientific & Technical Instruments $4.0B
0.1% below $90.44 → 200WMA $90.52

Historical Context

This is the 22th time ITRI has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +27.8%. History favors the patient buyer here.

Quality Signals

📈 FCF Growing 💰 7.5% FCF Yield

Things to Watch

  • RSI still elevated (62): The stock just crossed below the line but isn't oversold yet. It may have further to fall before reaching a bottom.
  • No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
  • The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
View full ITRI analysis →

WERN — Werner Enterprises, Inc.

Industrials - Trucking $2.1B
0% below $35.67 → 200WMA $35.68

Historical Context

This is the 42th time WERN has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +15.2%. History favors the patient buyer here.

Quality Signals

No quality flags detected. This stock crossed below the line without any of our positive quality signals — approach with extra caution.

Things to Watch

  • No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
  • The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
View full WERN analysis →

📈 Recovered Above the Line

These stocks climbed back above their 200-week moving average this week. If you bought during their time below the line, this is a milestone — though not necessarily a sell signal.

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Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.