Weekly Signal Report — August 15, 2026
This week, 30 stocks crossed below their 200-week moving average — entering what we call “deep value territory.” This is the signal our screener is built to detect: quality companies trading below a price level that has historically represented a floor over the prior four years.
Not every stock that crosses the line is a buy. Some are cheap for good reason. The 200-week moving average is a starting point for research, not a buy signal. Below, we break down each new crossing with the context you need to decide whether it’s opportunity or a warning.
On the other side, 28 stocks climbed back above the line this week — exiting deep value territory.
What is deep value territory?
The 200-week moving average represents roughly four years of price history. When a stock drops below this level, it means the current price is lower than the average investor paid over the last four years. For quality companies, these moments are rare — most stocks only cross below the 200-week line a handful of times in their history.
Our data shows that while 12-month returns from a crossing can be modest, 24-month returns are often significantly higher. The strategy requires patience. Not every crossing is a buying opportunity — some stocks are cheap because the business is deteriorating. That's why we pair the signal with quality metrics like free cash flow trends, insider buying, and return on equity.
📉 Newly Below the Line
Historical Context
This is the 27th time MNST has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +24.4%. History favors the patient buyer here.
Quality Signals
No quality flags detected. This stock crossed below the line without any of our positive quality signals — approach with extra caution.
Things to Watch
- Oversold (RSI 22): The stock is already deeply oversold on a weekly basis. This could mean a bounce is near, but it could also mean momentum is strongly negative. Don't catch a falling knife without a thesis.
- No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
- The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
Historical Context
This is the 6th time CLBT has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +79.9%. History favors the patient buyer here.
Quality Signals
Things to Watch
- No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
- The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
Historical Context
This is the 12th time JD has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of -19.5%. History has not rewarded buying this stock at the 200-week line — extra caution warranted.
Quality Signals
Things to Watch
- Cycling pattern: JD has crossed below the 200-week MA 12 times with modest average returns. This stock may oscillate around the line rather than bounce decisively — consider whether this is a value trap.
- No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
- The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
Historical Context
This is the third time IHRT has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +43.2%. History favors the patient buyer here.
Quality Signals
Things to Watch
- Oversold (RSI 24): The stock is already deeply oversold on a weekly basis. This could mean a bounce is near, but it could also mean momentum is strongly negative. Don't catch a falling knife without a thesis.
- Cash flow is deteriorating: Free cash flow is trending downward. The stock might be cheap for a reason — verify whether this is a temporary or structural issue.
- No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
- The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
Historical Context
This is the 13th time NATR has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +0.6%. History favors the patient buyer here.
Quality Signals
Things to Watch
- Oversold (RSI 16): The stock is already deeply oversold on a weekly basis. This could mean a bounce is near, but it could also mean momentum is strongly negative. Don't catch a falling knife without a thesis.
- Cycling pattern: NATR has crossed below the 200-week MA 13 times with modest average returns. This stock may oscillate around the line rather than bounce decisively — consider whether this is a value trap.
- No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
- The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
Historical Context
This is the 19th time EDU has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +27.5%. History favors the patient buyer here.
Quality Signals
Things to Watch
- No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
- The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
Historical Context
This is the 38th time PVH has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +16.7%. History favors the patient buyer here.
Quality Signals
No quality flags detected. This stock crossed below the line without any of our positive quality signals — approach with extra caution.
Things to Watch
- No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
- The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
Historical Context
This is the 10th time PGNY has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of -1.7%. History has not rewarded buying this stock at the 200-week line — extra caution warranted.
Quality Signals
Things to Watch
- RSI still elevated (58): The stock just crossed below the line but isn't oversold yet. It may have further to fall before reaching a bottom.
- Cycling pattern: PGNY has crossed below the 200-week MA 10 times with modest average returns. This stock may oscillate around the line rather than bounce decisively — consider whether this is a value trap.
- The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
Historical Context
This is the 29th time LPX has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +27.8%. History favors the patient buyer here.
Quality Signals
No quality flags detected. This stock crossed below the line without any of our positive quality signals — approach with extra caution.
Things to Watch
- No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
- The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
Historical Context
This is the 19th time JBLU has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of -8.5%. History has not rewarded buying this stock at the 200-week line — extra caution warranted.
Quality Signals
No quality flags detected. This stock crossed below the line without any of our positive quality signals — approach with extra caution.
Things to Watch
- RSI still elevated (55): The stock just crossed below the line but isn't oversold yet. It may have further to fall before reaching a bottom.
- Cash flow is deteriorating: Free cash flow is trending downward. The stock might be cheap for a reason — verify whether this is a temporary or structural issue.
- Cycling pattern: JBLU has crossed below the 200-week MA 19 times with modest average returns. This stock may oscillate around the line rather than bounce decisively — consider whether this is a value trap.
- No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
- The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
Historical Context
This is the 19th time MATV has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of -5.2%. History has not rewarded buying this stock at the 200-week line — extra caution warranted.
Quality Signals
No quality flags detected. This stock crossed below the line without any of our positive quality signals — approach with extra caution.
Things to Watch
- RSI still elevated (63): The stock just crossed below the line but isn't oversold yet. It may have further to fall before reaching a bottom.
- Cycling pattern: MATV has crossed below the 200-week MA 19 times with modest average returns. This stock may oscillate around the line rather than bounce decisively — consider whether this is a value trap.
- No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
- The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
Historical Context
This is the 18th time ZUMZ has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +32.4%. History favors the patient buyer here.
Quality Signals
Things to Watch
- No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
- The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
Historical Context
This is the third time RIVN has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of -47.6%. History has not rewarded buying this stock at the 200-week line — extra caution warranted.
Quality Signals
No quality flags detected. This stock crossed below the line without any of our positive quality signals — approach with extra caution.
Things to Watch
- RSI still elevated (55): The stock just crossed below the line but isn't oversold yet. It may have further to fall before reaching a bottom.
- No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
- The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
Historical Context
This is the 39th time PPG has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +10.2%. History favors the patient buyer here.
Quality Signals
Things to Watch
- RSI still elevated (55): The stock just crossed below the line but isn't oversold yet. It may have further to fall before reaching a bottom.
- The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
Historical Context
This is the 17th time AZO has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +30.5%. History favors the patient buyer here.
Quality Signals
No quality flags detected. This stock crossed below the line without any of our positive quality signals — approach with extra caution.
Things to Watch
- Cash flow is deteriorating: Free cash flow is trending downward. The stock might be cheap for a reason — verify whether this is a temporary or structural issue.
- No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
- The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
Historical Context
This is the 26th time POWI has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +18.4%. History favors the patient buyer here.
Quality Signals
No quality flags detected. This stock crossed below the line without any of our positive quality signals — approach with extra caution.
Things to Watch
- No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
- The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
Historical Context
This is the 16th time LOPE has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +15.4%. History favors the patient buyer here.
Quality Signals
No quality flags detected. This stock crossed below the line without any of our positive quality signals — approach with extra caution.
Things to Watch
- No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
- The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
Historical Context
This is the 10th time HLMN has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of -15.4%. History has not rewarded buying this stock at the 200-week line — extra caution warranted.
Quality Signals
No quality flags detected. This stock crossed below the line without any of our positive quality signals — approach with extra caution.
Things to Watch
- RSI still elevated (58): The stock just crossed below the line but isn't oversold yet. It may have further to fall before reaching a bottom.
- Cash flow is deteriorating: Free cash flow is trending downward. The stock might be cheap for a reason — verify whether this is a temporary or structural issue.
- Cycling pattern: HLMN has crossed below the 200-week MA 10 times with modest average returns. This stock may oscillate around the line rather than bounce decisively — consider whether this is a value trap.
- No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
- The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
Historical Context
This is the 10th time EVCM has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +12.8%. History favors the patient buyer here.
Quality Signals
Things to Watch
- No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
- The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
Historical Context
This is the 24th time LOW has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +22.6%. History favors the patient buyer here.
Quality Signals
Things to Watch
- The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
Historical Context
This is the 13th time SFM has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of -2.9%. History has not rewarded buying this stock at the 200-week line — extra caution warranted.
Quality Signals
No quality flags detected. This stock crossed below the line without any of our positive quality signals — approach with extra caution.
Things to Watch
- Cycling pattern: SFM has crossed below the 200-week MA 13 times with modest average returns. This stock may oscillate around the line rather than bounce decisively — consider whether this is a value trap.
- No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
- The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
Historical Context
This is the 34th time ALK has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +16.1%. History favors the patient buyer here.
Quality Signals
No quality flags detected. This stock crossed below the line without any of our positive quality signals — approach with extra caution.
Things to Watch
- RSI still elevated (56): The stock just crossed below the line but isn't oversold yet. It may have further to fall before reaching a bottom.
- Cash flow is deteriorating: Free cash flow is trending downward. The stock might be cheap for a reason — verify whether this is a temporary or structural issue.
- No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
- The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
Historical Context
This is the 21th time NCLH has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +21%. History favors the patient buyer here.
Quality Signals
No quality flags detected. This stock crossed below the line without any of our positive quality signals — approach with extra caution.
Things to Watch
- RSI still elevated (59): The stock just crossed below the line but isn't oversold yet. It may have further to fall before reaching a bottom.
- No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
- The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
Historical Context
This is the 24th time MRSH has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +15.8%. History favors the patient buyer here.
Quality Signals
No quality flags detected. This stock crossed below the line without any of our positive quality signals — approach with extra caution.
Things to Watch
- RSI still elevated (71): The stock just crossed below the line but isn't oversold yet. It may have further to fall before reaching a bottom.
- No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
- The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
Historical Context
This is the 14th time STRA has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +0.4%. History favors the patient buyer here.
Quality Signals
No quality flags detected. This stock crossed below the line without any of our positive quality signals — approach with extra caution.
Things to Watch
- RSI still elevated (53): The stock just crossed below the line but isn't oversold yet. It may have further to fall before reaching a bottom.
- Cycling pattern: STRA has crossed below the 200-week MA 14 times with modest average returns. This stock may oscillate around the line rather than bounce decisively — consider whether this is a value trap.
- No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
- The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
Historical Context
This is the 7th time ALRM has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +31.3%. History favors the patient buyer here.
Quality Signals
Things to Watch
- RSI still elevated (64): The stock just crossed below the line but isn't oversold yet. It may have further to fall before reaching a bottom.
- No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
- The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
Historical Context
This is the 32th time AEO has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +12.9%. History favors the patient buyer here.
Quality Signals
Things to Watch
- No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
- The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
Historical Context
This is the 25th time CXT has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +12.5%. History favors the patient buyer here.
Quality Signals
Things to Watch
- RSI still elevated (58): The stock just crossed below the line but isn't oversold yet. It may have further to fall before reaching a bottom.
- Cash flow is deteriorating: Free cash flow is trending downward. The stock might be cheap for a reason — verify whether this is a temporary or structural issue.
- No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
- The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
Historical Context
This is the 6th time GBTC has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +251.2%. History favors the patient buyer here.
Quality Signals
No quality flags detected. This stock crossed below the line without any of our positive quality signals — approach with extra caution.
Things to Watch
- Oversold (RSI 26): The stock is already deeply oversold on a weekly basis. This could mean a bounce is near, but it could also mean momentum is strongly negative. Don't catch a falling knife without a thesis.
- No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
- The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
Historical Context
This is the 39th time UHS has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +28.4%. History favors the patient buyer here.
Quality Signals
Things to Watch
- RSI still elevated (50): The stock just crossed below the line but isn't oversold yet. It may have further to fall before reaching a bottom.
- No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
- The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
📈 Recovered Above the Line
These stocks climbed back above their 200-week moving average this week. If you bought during their time below the line, this is a milestone — though not necessarily a sell signal.
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