Weekly Signal Report — July 04, 2026
This week, 21 stocks crossed below their 200-week moving average — entering what we call “deep value territory.” This is the signal our screener is built to detect: quality companies trading below a price level that has historically represented a floor over the prior four years.
Not every stock that crosses the line is a buy. Some are cheap for good reason. The 200-week moving average is a starting point for research, not a buy signal. Below, we break down each new crossing with the context you need to decide whether it’s opportunity or a warning.
On the other side, 54 stocks climbed back above the line this week — exiting deep value territory.
What is deep value territory?
The 200-week moving average represents roughly four years of price history. When a stock drops below this level, it means the current price is lower than the average investor paid over the last four years. For quality companies, these moments are rare — most stocks only cross below the 200-week line a handful of times in their history.
Our data shows that while 12-month returns from a crossing can be modest, 24-month returns are often significantly higher. The strategy requires patience. Not every crossing is a buying opportunity — some stocks are cheap because the business is deteriorating. That's why we pair the signal with quality metrics like free cash flow trends, insider buying, and return on equity.
📉 Newly Below the Line
Historical Context
This is the 30th time MLI has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +25.2%. History favors the patient buyer here.
Quality Signals
Things to Watch
- The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
Historical Context
This is the 35th time APOG has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +17.1%. History favors the patient buyer here.
Quality Signals
Things to Watch
- RSI still elevated (61): The stock just crossed below the line but isn't oversold yet. It may have further to fall before reaching a bottom.
- No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
- The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
Historical Context
This is the 13th time MARA has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of -14.1%. History has not rewarded buying this stock at the 200-week line — extra caution warranted.
Quality Signals
No quality flags detected. This stock crossed below the line without any of our positive quality signals — approach with extra caution.
Things to Watch
- RSI still elevated (66): The stock just crossed below the line but isn't oversold yet. It may have further to fall before reaching a bottom.
- Cash flow is deteriorating: Free cash flow is trending downward. The stock might be cheap for a reason — verify whether this is a temporary or structural issue.
- Cycling pattern: MARA has crossed below the 200-week MA 13 times with modest average returns. This stock may oscillate around the line rather than bounce decisively — consider whether this is a value trap.
- No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
- The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
Historical Context
This is the 36th time MEI has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +14.9%. History favors the patient buyer here.
Quality Signals
Things to Watch
- RSI still elevated (77): The stock just crossed below the line but isn't oversold yet. It may have further to fall before reaching a bottom.
- Cash flow is deteriorating: Free cash flow is trending downward. The stock might be cheap for a reason — verify whether this is a temporary or structural issue.
- No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
- The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
Historical Context
This is the 27th time PTEN has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +8.8%. History favors the patient buyer here.
Quality Signals
Things to Watch
- Cycling pattern: PTEN has crossed below the 200-week MA 27 times with modest average returns. This stock may oscillate around the line rather than bounce decisively — consider whether this is a value trap.
- No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
- The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
Historical Context
This is the third time AQN has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of -41%. History has not rewarded buying this stock at the 200-week line — extra caution warranted.
Quality Signals
No quality flags detected. This stock crossed below the line without any of our positive quality signals — approach with extra caution.
Things to Watch
- No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
- The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
Historical Context
This is the 6th time QRVO has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +28.3%. History favors the patient buyer here.
Quality Signals
Things to Watch
- RSI still elevated (60): The stock just crossed below the line but isn't oversold yet. It may have further to fall before reaching a bottom.
- No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
- The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
Historical Context
This is the 11th time LE has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of -24.3%. History has not rewarded buying this stock at the 200-week line — extra caution warranted.
Quality Signals
Things to Watch
- Cycling pattern: LE has crossed below the 200-week MA 11 times with modest average returns. This stock may oscillate around the line rather than bounce decisively — consider whether this is a value trap.
- The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
Historical Context
This is the 42th time MUR has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +9.7%. History favors the patient buyer here.
Quality Signals
No quality flags detected. This stock crossed below the line without any of our positive quality signals — approach with extra caution.
Things to Watch
- Cash flow is deteriorating: Free cash flow is trending downward. The stock might be cheap for a reason — verify whether this is a temporary or structural issue.
- Cycling pattern: MUR has crossed below the 200-week MA 42 times with modest average returns. This stock may oscillate around the line rather than bounce decisively — consider whether this is a value trap.
- No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
- The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
Historical Context
This is the 26th time ATNI has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +20.6%. History favors the patient buyer here.
Quality Signals
Things to Watch
- No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
- The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
Historical Context
This is the 28th time DVN has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +8.1%. History favors the patient buyer here.
Quality Signals
No quality flags detected. This stock crossed below the line without any of our positive quality signals — approach with extra caution.
Things to Watch
- Cash flow is deteriorating: Free cash flow is trending downward. The stock might be cheap for a reason — verify whether this is a temporary or structural issue.
- Cycling pattern: DVN has crossed below the 200-week MA 28 times with modest average returns. This stock may oscillate around the line rather than bounce decisively — consider whether this is a value trap.
- No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
- The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
Historical Context
This is the 5th time BTU has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of -37.2%. History has not rewarded buying this stock at the 200-week line — extra caution warranted.
Quality Signals
No quality flags detected. This stock crossed below the line without any of our positive quality signals — approach with extra caution.
Things to Watch
- Oversold (RSI 20): The stock is already deeply oversold on a weekly basis. This could mean a bounce is near, but it could also mean momentum is strongly negative. Don't catch a falling knife without a thesis.
- Cash flow is deteriorating: Free cash flow is trending downward. The stock might be cheap for a reason — verify whether this is a temporary or structural issue.
- Cycling pattern: BTU has crossed below the 200-week MA 5 times with modest average returns. This stock may oscillate around the line rather than bounce decisively — consider whether this is a value trap.
- No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
- The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
Historical Context
This is the 14th time DNOW has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +7.7%. History favors the patient buyer here.
Quality Signals
No quality flags detected. This stock crossed below the line without any of our positive quality signals — approach with extra caution.
Things to Watch
- RSI still elevated (53): The stock just crossed below the line but isn't oversold yet. It may have further to fall before reaching a bottom.
- Cycling pattern: DNOW has crossed below the 200-week MA 14 times with modest average returns. This stock may oscillate around the line rather than bounce decisively — consider whether this is a value trap.
- No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
- The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
Historical Context
This is the 33th time IMMR has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +17.5%. History favors the patient buyer here.
Quality Signals
No quality flags detected. This stock crossed below the line without any of our positive quality signals — approach with extra caution.
Things to Watch
- RSI still elevated (67): The stock just crossed below the line but isn't oversold yet. It may have further to fall before reaching a bottom.
- Cash flow is deteriorating: Free cash flow is trending downward. The stock might be cheap for a reason — verify whether this is a temporary or structural issue.
- No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
- The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
Historical Context
This is the 22th time ORCL has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +41.6%. History favors the patient buyer here.
Quality Signals
No quality flags detected. This stock crossed below the line without any of our positive quality signals — approach with extra caution.
Things to Watch
- RSI still elevated (50): The stock just crossed below the line but isn't oversold yet. It may have further to fall before reaching a bottom.
- Cash flow is deteriorating: Free cash flow is trending downward. The stock might be cheap for a reason — verify whether this is a temporary or structural issue.
- No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
- The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
Historical Context
This is the 14th time MATW has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of -3.6%. History has not rewarded buying this stock at the 200-week line — extra caution warranted.
Quality Signals
Things to Watch
- RSI still elevated (58): The stock just crossed below the line but isn't oversold yet. It may have further to fall before reaching a bottom.
- Cash flow is deteriorating: Free cash flow is trending downward. The stock might be cheap for a reason — verify whether this is a temporary or structural issue.
- Cycling pattern: MATW has crossed below the 200-week MA 14 times with modest average returns. This stock may oscillate around the line rather than bounce decisively — consider whether this is a value trap.
- No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
- The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
Historical Context
This is the 9th time FLNC has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of -14.2%. History has not rewarded buying this stock at the 200-week line — extra caution warranted.
Quality Signals
No quality flags detected. This stock crossed below the line without any of our positive quality signals — approach with extra caution.
Things to Watch
- RSI still elevated (54): The stock just crossed below the line but isn't oversold yet. It may have further to fall before reaching a bottom.
- Cycling pattern: FLNC has crossed below the 200-week MA 9 times with modest average returns. This stock may oscillate around the line rather than bounce decisively — consider whether this is a value trap.
- No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
- The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
Historical Context
This is the 5th time TMUS has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +17.7%. History favors the patient buyer here.
Quality Signals
Things to Watch
- No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
- The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
Historical Context
This is the 39th time HAE has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +5.1%. History favors the patient buyer here.
Quality Signals
Things to Watch
- RSI still elevated (73): The stock just crossed below the line but isn't oversold yet. It may have further to fall before reaching a bottom.
- Cycling pattern: HAE has crossed below the 200-week MA 39 times with modest average returns. This stock may oscillate around the line rather than bounce decisively — consider whether this is a value trap.
- No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
- The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
Historical Context
This is the 46th time HP has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +17.1%. History favors the patient buyer here.
Quality Signals
Things to Watch
- Cash flow is deteriorating: Free cash flow is trending downward. The stock might be cheap for a reason — verify whether this is a temporary or structural issue.
- No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
- The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
Historical Context
This is the 7th time ULTA has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +31.2%. History favors the patient buyer here.
Quality Signals
No quality flags detected. This stock crossed below the line without any of our positive quality signals — approach with extra caution.
Things to Watch
- Cash flow is deteriorating: Free cash flow is trending downward. The stock might be cheap for a reason — verify whether this is a temporary or structural issue.
- No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
- The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
📈 Recovered Above the Line
These stocks climbed back above their 200-week moving average this week. If you bought during their time below the line, this is a milestone — though not necessarily a sell signal.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.