Weekly Signal Report — April 04, 2026
This week, 6 stocks crossed below their 200-week moving average — entering what we call “deep value territory.” This is the signal our screener is built to detect: quality companies trading below a price level that has historically represented a floor over the prior four years.
Not every stock that crosses the line is a buy. Some are cheap for good reason. The 200-week moving average is a starting point for research, not a buy signal. Below, we break down each new crossing with the context you need to decide whether it’s opportunity or a warning.
On the other side, 48 stocks climbed back above the line this week — exiting deep value territory.
What is deep value territory?
The 200-week moving average represents roughly four years of price history. When a stock drops below this level, it means the current price is lower than the average investor paid over the last four years. For quality companies, these moments are rare — most stocks only cross below the 200-week line a handful of times in their history.
Our data shows that while 12-month returns from a crossing can be modest, 24-month returns are often significantly higher. The strategy requires patience. Not every crossing is a buying opportunity — some stocks are cheap because the business is deteriorating. That's why we pair the signal with quality metrics like free cash flow trends, insider buying, and return on equity.
📉 Newly Below the Line
Historical Context
This is the 40th time NBR has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +16.5%. History favors the patient buyer here.
Quality Signals
Things to Watch
- RSI still elevated (74): The stock just crossed below the line but isn't oversold yet. It may have further to fall before reaching a bottom.
- Cash flow is deteriorating: Free cash flow is trending downward. The stock might be cheap for a reason — verify whether this is a temporary or structural issue.
- No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
- The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
Historical Context
This is the 31th time UL has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +17.5%. History favors the patient buyer here.
Quality Signals
Things to Watch
- No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
- The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
Historical Context
This is the 11th time NOG has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +17.6%. History favors the patient buyer here.
Quality Signals
Things to Watch
- RSI still elevated (74): The stock just crossed below the line but isn't oversold yet. It may have further to fall before reaching a bottom.
- No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
- The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
Historical Context
This is the 28th time SYY has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +12%. History favors the patient buyer here.
Quality Signals
Things to Watch
- The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
Historical Context
This is the 23th time CENTA has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +15.1%. History favors the patient buyer here.
Quality Signals
Things to Watch
- RSI still elevated (57): The stock just crossed below the line but isn't oversold yet. It may have further to fall before reaching a bottom.
- No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
- The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
Historical Context
This is the 11th time IRTC has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +33%. History favors the patient buyer here.
Quality Signals
No quality flags detected. This stock crossed below the line without any of our positive quality signals — approach with extra caution.
Things to Watch
- Oversold (RSI 18): The stock is already deeply oversold on a weekly basis. This could mean a bounce is near, but it could also mean momentum is strongly negative. Don't catch a falling knife without a thesis.
- No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
- The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
📈 Recovered Above the Line
These stocks climbed back above their 200-week moving average this week. If you bought during their time below the line, this is a milestone — though not necessarily a sell signal.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.