Weekly Signal Report — February 21, 2026
This week, 24 stocks crossed below their 200-week moving average — entering what we call “deep value territory.” This is the signal our screener is built to detect: quality companies trading below a price level that has historically represented a floor over the prior four years.
Not every stock that crosses the line is a buy. Some are cheap for good reason. The 200-week moving average is a starting point for research, not a buy signal. Below, we break down each new crossing with the context you need to decide whether it’s opportunity or a warning.
On the other side, 40 stocks climbed back above the line this week — exiting deep value territory.
What is deep value territory?
The 200-week moving average represents roughly four years of price history. When a stock drops below this level, it means the current price is lower than the average investor paid over the last four years. For quality companies, these moments are rare — most stocks only cross below the 200-week line a handful of times in their history.
Our data shows that while 12-month returns from a crossing can be modest, 24-month returns are often significantly higher. The strategy requires patience. Not every crossing is a buying opportunity — some stocks are cheap because the business is deteriorating. That's why we pair the signal with quality metrics like free cash flow trends, insider buying, and return on equity.
📉 Newly Below the Line
Historical Context
This is the 18th time MATV has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of -5.8%. History has not rewarded buying this stock at the 200-week line — extra caution warranted.
Quality Signals
Things to Watch
- Cycling pattern: MATV has crossed below the 200-week MA 18 times with modest average returns. This stock may oscillate around the line rather than bounce decisively — consider whether this is a value trap.
- No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
- The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
Historical Context
This is the 5th time OKTA has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of -46%. History has not rewarded buying this stock at the 200-week line — extra caution warranted.
Quality Signals
Things to Watch
- Cycling pattern: OKTA has crossed below the 200-week MA 5 times with modest average returns. This stock may oscillate around the line rather than bounce decisively — consider whether this is a value trap.
- No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
- The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
Historical Context
This is the 20th time GPC has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +7.3%. History favors the patient buyer here.
Quality Signals
Things to Watch
- Cash flow is deteriorating: Free cash flow is trending downward. The stock might be cheap for a reason — verify whether this is a temporary or structural issue.
- Cycling pattern: GPC has crossed below the 200-week MA 20 times with modest average returns. This stock may oscillate around the line rather than bounce decisively — consider whether this is a value trap.
- The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
Historical Context
This is the 17th time SYNA has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +26.3%. History favors the patient buyer here.
Quality Signals
Things to Watch
- RSI still elevated (66): The stock just crossed below the line but isn't oversold yet. It may have further to fall before reaching a bottom.
- Cash flow is deteriorating: Free cash flow is trending downward. The stock might be cheap for a reason — verify whether this is a temporary or structural issue.
- No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
- The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
Historical Context
This is the 5th time UWMC has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +11.1%. History favors the patient buyer here.
Quality Signals
Things to Watch
- Cash flow is deteriorating: Free cash flow is trending downward. The stock might be cheap for a reason — verify whether this is a temporary or structural issue.
- No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
- The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
Historical Context
This is the 52th time TAP has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +8.5%. History favors the patient buyer here.
Quality Signals
Things to Watch
- RSI still elevated (60): The stock just crossed below the line but isn't oversold yet. It may have further to fall before reaching a bottom.
- Cycling pattern: TAP has crossed below the 200-week MA 52 times with modest average returns. This stock may oscillate around the line rather than bounce decisively — consider whether this is a value trap.
- No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
- The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
Historical Context
This is the 4th time SLVM has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +64.8%. History favors the patient buyer here.
Quality Signals
No quality flags detected. This stock crossed below the line without any of our positive quality signals — approach with extra caution.
Things to Watch
- RSI still elevated (62): The stock just crossed below the line but isn't oversold yet. It may have further to fall before reaching a bottom.
- Cash flow is deteriorating: Free cash flow is trending downward. The stock might be cheap for a reason — verify whether this is a temporary or structural issue.
- No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
- The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
Historical Context
This is the 8th time APTV has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +37.7%. History favors the patient buyer here.
Quality Signals
Things to Watch
- RSI still elevated (51): The stock just crossed below the line but isn't oversold yet. It may have further to fall before reaching a bottom.
- No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
- The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
Historical Context
This is the 24th time CI has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +12.7%. History favors the patient buyer here.
Quality Signals
Things to Watch
- RSI still elevated (57): The stock just crossed below the line but isn't oversold yet. It may have further to fall before reaching a bottom.
- No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
- The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
Historical Context
This is the third time PACK has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +141.4%. History favors the patient buyer here.
Quality Signals
No quality flags detected. This stock crossed below the line without any of our positive quality signals — approach with extra caution.
Things to Watch
- RSI still elevated (56): The stock just crossed below the line but isn't oversold yet. It may have further to fall before reaching a bottom.
- No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
- The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
Historical Context
This is the 10th time HLNE has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +45.7%. History favors the patient buyer here.
Quality Signals
Things to Watch
- The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
Historical Context
This is the 32th time GEN has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +37.8%. History favors the patient buyer here.
Quality Signals
Things to Watch
- Oversold (RSI 28): The stock is already deeply oversold on a weekly basis. This could mean a bounce is near, but it could also mean momentum is strongly negative. Don't catch a falling knife without a thesis.
- No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
- The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
Historical Context
This is the 12th time AWK has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +7.8%. History favors the patient buyer here.
Quality Signals
Things to Watch
- Cash flow is deteriorating: Free cash flow is trending downward. The stock might be cheap for a reason — verify whether this is a temporary or structural issue.
- Cycling pattern: AWK has crossed below the 200-week MA 12 times with modest average returns. This stock may oscillate around the line rather than bounce decisively — consider whether this is a value trap.
- The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
Historical Context
This is the 28th time KSS has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of -13.1%. History has not rewarded buying this stock at the 200-week line — extra caution warranted.
Quality Signals
Things to Watch
- RSI still elevated (55): The stock just crossed below the line but isn't oversold yet. It may have further to fall before reaching a bottom.
- Cash flow is deteriorating: Free cash flow is trending downward. The stock might be cheap for a reason — verify whether this is a temporary or structural issue.
- Cycling pattern: KSS has crossed below the 200-week MA 28 times with modest average returns. This stock may oscillate around the line rather than bounce decisively — consider whether this is a value trap.
- No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
- The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
Historical Context
This is the 8th time FLNC has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of -14.2%. History has not rewarded buying this stock at the 200-week line — extra caution warranted.
Quality Signals
No quality flags detected. This stock crossed below the line without any of our positive quality signals — approach with extra caution.
Things to Watch
- Cycling pattern: FLNC has crossed below the 200-week MA 8 times with modest average returns. This stock may oscillate around the line rather than bounce decisively — consider whether this is a value trap.
- No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
- The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
Historical Context
This is the 10th time AAL has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of -1.2%. History has not rewarded buying this stock at the 200-week line — extra caution warranted.
Quality Signals
Things to Watch
- RSI still elevated (54): The stock just crossed below the line but isn't oversold yet. It may have further to fall before reaching a bottom.
- Cycling pattern: AAL has crossed below the 200-week MA 10 times with modest average returns. This stock may oscillate around the line rather than bounce decisively — consider whether this is a value trap.
- No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
- The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
Historical Context
This is the 45th time FUL has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +26.3%. History favors the patient buyer here.
Quality Signals
Things to Watch
- RSI still elevated (68): The stock just crossed below the line but isn't oversold yet. It may have further to fall before reaching a bottom.
- Cash flow is deteriorating: Free cash flow is trending downward. The stock might be cheap for a reason — verify whether this is a temporary or structural issue.
- No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
- The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
Historical Context
This is the 10th time HLMN has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of -15.5%. History has not rewarded buying this stock at the 200-week line — extra caution warranted.
Quality Signals
Things to Watch
- RSI still elevated (54): The stock just crossed below the line but isn't oversold yet. It may have further to fall before reaching a bottom.
- Cycling pattern: HLMN has crossed below the 200-week MA 10 times with modest average returns. This stock may oscillate around the line rather than bounce decisively — consider whether this is a value trap.
- No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
- The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
Historical Context
This is the 8th time LEGH has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +32.7%. History favors the patient buyer here.
Quality Signals
No quality flags detected. This stock crossed below the line without any of our positive quality signals — approach with extra caution.
Things to Watch
- RSI still elevated (62): The stock just crossed below the line but isn't oversold yet. It may have further to fall before reaching a bottom.
- Cash flow is deteriorating: Free cash flow is trending downward. The stock might be cheap for a reason — verify whether this is a temporary or structural issue.
- No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
- The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
Historical Context
This is the 27th time UDR has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +16.6%. History favors the patient buyer here.
Quality Signals
Things to Watch
- RSI still elevated (68): The stock just crossed below the line but isn't oversold yet. It may have further to fall before reaching a bottom.
- No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
- The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
Historical Context
This is the 10th time CLB has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of -0.3%. History has not rewarded buying this stock at the 200-week line — extra caution warranted.
Quality Signals
Things to Watch
- RSI still elevated (70): The stock just crossed below the line but isn't oversold yet. It may have further to fall before reaching a bottom.
- Cycling pattern: CLB has crossed below the 200-week MA 10 times with modest average returns. This stock may oscillate around the line rather than bounce decisively — consider whether this is a value trap.
- No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
- The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
Historical Context
This is the 15th time NOVT has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +4.3%. History favors the patient buyer here.
Quality Signals
Things to Watch
- RSI still elevated (79): The stock just crossed below the line but isn't oversold yet. It may have further to fall before reaching a bottom.
- Cycling pattern: NOVT has crossed below the 200-week MA 15 times with modest average returns. This stock may oscillate around the line rather than bounce decisively — consider whether this is a value trap.
- No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
- The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
Historical Context
This is the 33th time EMN has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +9.2%. History favors the patient buyer here.
Quality Signals
Things to Watch
- RSI still elevated (86): The stock just crossed below the line but isn't oversold yet. It may have further to fall before reaching a bottom.
- Cycling pattern: EMN has crossed below the 200-week MA 33 times with modest average returns. This stock may oscillate around the line rather than bounce decisively — consider whether this is a value trap.
- No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
- The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
Historical Context
This is the 33th time LEN has crossed below its 200-week moving average. Previous crossings produced an average 1-year return of +38.2%. History favors the patient buyer here.
Quality Signals
Things to Watch
- Cash flow is deteriorating: Free cash flow is trending downward. The stock might be cheap for a reason — verify whether this is a temporary or structural issue.
- No quality floor: This stock doesn't pass our Buffett quality screen or have a long dividend track record. The business quality is less certain, which means the 200-week MA crossing carries less predictive weight.
- The 200-week moving average is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always research the company's fundamentals, competitive position, and recent news before acting.
📈 Recovered Above the Line
These stocks climbed back above their 200-week moving average this week. If you bought during their time below the line, this is a milestone — though not necessarily a sell signal.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.